Sep 05 | Closing Market Report
From the land of Grand University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report. It's the September 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Mike Zuzlow.
Todd Gleason:He's at globalcomresearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. Mike will be here too for our commodity week program along with Logan Kimmel of Roach Ag and John Zanker of risk management commodities. If you can stay with us on our home station, you'll hear all of that program and its entire team over the next hour. If not, it's up online right now at willag.org, and many of these radio stations will carry it over the weekend. During the closing market report today too, we'll discuss the agricultural weather forecast, and Eric Snodgrass will drop a yield for corn that he's been toying with.
Todd Gleason:You wanna stay with us with that on this edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org.
announce:Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason:December corn for the day settled at $4.18 a penny and three quarters lower. The March down one at $4.36 and a half. November beans at $10.27, six lower. January down six as well at $10.45 and a half. Mike Zuzalo at globalcommresearch.com, out of Atchison, Kansas now joins us.
Todd Gleason:Hey. First, Mike, what a great commodity week program recorded yesterday afternoon with you and Logan Kimmel and John Zanker. Thank you for that. Folks who are listening to the home station will hear all of it coming up, throughout this hour. Otherwise, it's up online at willag.org.
Todd Gleason:I thought it went very well.
Mike Zuzolo:Yeah. I I did too. I think it was very timely and appropriate, and, you know, we really tried to take the bull by the horns or, in this case, the bear by the tail, I guess, when it comes to how to handle the off the combine bushels. It's a nice way to end the week too because I think it's very valuable information just because what the markets did and what they showed us. And specifically, Todd, what we talked about on the commodity week program, we did see the December corn get to 4.243 quarters for a high.
Mike Zuzolo:That's the highest since July 22. We haven't got settlements as we talk, but it looks like we're gonna barely close higher on the corn for the week, and that would be a fourth week in a row. The exact opposite in terms of the soybeans. Soybeans after actually pulling the the corn lower later in the session. And November got up to $10.37 and a quarter, two day high.
Mike Zuzolo:So you can kinda see this whole week was really about how we closed last week, and that was what was nice about it was a consistent trade that the corn market was more fearful of the short term supplies. Why do I say that? It's because the September futures were what really drove the bus this week in corn and helped everything else out. Otherwise, the spreads were pretty weak, and we we had a couple big trade estimates come out. Private trade guesses come out.
Mike Zuzolo:One on Wednesday, one on Friday, right around the same time period around lunchtime, after lunchtime. Both of them had the same impact or similar impact as what as what each other did. It felt like Wednesday afternoon, on Friday afternoon, in other words, because by mid session, the beans were leaving the corn lower. S and P Global came in with a 53.8 yield on beans, 4,300,000,000 bushel production number. S and P Global corn, one eighty nine point one, 16,770,000,000 production number, very close to what Allendale did midweek.
Todd Gleason:Yeah. So the Allendale was a farmer survey. I don't know whether the S and P 500 or whether the S and P Global was that or not, but those still remain big numbers. And they don't really tackle the disease issue that some believe might be out there. The farmer survey says they weren't sure that this was going to have much of an impact, and I guess we'll just have to wait and see on that one.
Todd Gleason:However, as you, laid out as we began this this program and then, of course, in commodity week, the idea that we make it through the fall and where farmers are so far behind in marketing both corn and soybeans that maybe it was time to do something potentially, especially because the basis is likely to erode over the next month. Do you have them make moves? Is is it something that they should do, do you suppose?
Mike Zuzolo:Yeah. I started on Friday in the back end picking up some carry for on the farm bushels, and I think I think, you know, getting the May up to $4.50 and the July upwards of $4.57, $4.58 area made sense because that 50¢ carry is worth going after at this point for what you can store. Still have to get underneath the issue of the off the combine bushels, and that's where next week really comes into play. I I really do think that we have ever since the August report traded very similarly with the bean led rally up until this week, like we did last year at this time. And so if we're still playing the the similar track as last year at this time, it's it's got maybe a little bit more up in it at this stage of the game.
Mike Zuzolo:But then I think we're heading into the what next WASDE report with numbers and and price action that would suggest to me you've gotta feed the bull at this stage and get some good numbers underneath you from USDA. Otherwise, mid September didn't treat us too kindly last year. And that that's a really key issue, as you say, with the harvest right around the corner and basis levels that could be one of the better levels or one of the worst levels. And it really is based upon geography and where you're at, East Of The Mississippi or West Of The Mississippi. And whether you're in a flash drought or not in a flash drought, I I I think that the flash drought and the disease that you just mentioned, the disease specifically, probably one of those places, like in Illinois, Indiana, where it looks dry for the next seven to ten days.
Mike Zuzolo:Maybe okay to leave your basis open, but wouldn't leave both futures and basis open at this stage of the game.
Todd Gleason:Yeah. So I think the way you laid that out is that September still is hunting corn, and that farmers really have made the decision. They made that sometime back, last week, I think, probably, as to whether they were just gonna carry it into the New Year. Right? And so just on the hunt, for corn, for bushels, and that's holding the marketplace up.
Todd Gleason:You think it can actually hold December or fall delivery futures up?
Mike Zuzolo:I I don't think the corn can go against the beans and wheat. That's the biggie for me, Todd. It's just it's just not I just don't think it can happen when we're at a point where we've got The US China trade negotiations clearly, to me anyway, overwhelming and offsetting the continued dry weather and a hotter forecast. That's where I I really think next week is about the beans needing to pick it back up again and get the wheat and the soft red wheat specifically off near that three year low and stop messing around with not giving us a Northern Hemisphere harvest low. Those two things, if it were Christmas time, that would be on my Santa Claus list right now.
Todd Gleason:What would push wheat to do that, do you suppose?
Mike Zuzolo:I I still don't think the numbers are there on the Black Sea. I know the prices are dropping in Paris and in Europe, but I think that's more of a quality issue. I've even heard that Russian quality is not the greatest at this this stage of the game. But but the trade is so fixed on the Russian ruble, so fixed on the Black Sea private forecasts of a bigger crop potential that we're not able to really get our eyes off of that right now. So that's where I think we'd have to see the change.
Todd Gleason:What you're watching in the livestock sector?
Mike Zuzolo:I'm writing a special report, a 2026 protein report, and and it's funny. I went back and and pulled out my CRB commodity yearbooks and looked at '14, '15, and '16, and we're in the pretty much the same cycle as that time period. And domestic demand is what put the high end back then. And I guess I'm leaning towards that. We haven't done any damage technically yet, but I think we're kinda watching October as a key and crucial month since that's where feeders tended to make their high back during that time period.
Todd Gleason:Anything else before I let you go? Well, the big
Mike Zuzolo:news was the unemployment rate and jobs numbers, and it really sunk the dollar to a new monthly low. That dollar continues to support us. That's gonna be a major factor here in the next sixty days as well from an investment standpoint and the export standpoint too, Todd. So it's still up there at the very top of the list as far as what's carrying the water for the bull right now that can't seem to get his legs.
Todd Gleason:Hey. Thanks much. I appreciate it. You too, sir. Thanks a lot, Todd.
Todd Gleason:It's Mike Souzalo. He's with globalcommresearch.com. In today's agricultural news, USDA has revised its February farm income forecast and now says farm income will be up this year. The news from USDA research economist Carrie Litkowski comes as relief after two years of declining net farm income.
Carrie Litkowski:Farm income will increase in 2025 relative to 02/2024, and this follows declining farm income in 2023 and 02/2024.
Todd Gleason:Litkowski says net farm income is forecast to rise year over year by $52,000,000,000, while net cash farm income is projected to rise over $40,000,000,000. But how's that possible given such low crop prices?
Carrie Litkowski:Most of the expected increase in farm income is coming from higher cash receipt from the sale of animal and animal products. And, also, we expect higher payment from government programs to farmers in 02/2025.
Todd Gleason:Including new payments this year and earlier approved payments.
Carrie Litkowski:Total direct government payments that are expected to be received in 2025 by farmers is forecast at about $40,000,000,000. That's an increase of about $30,000,000,000 from 2024 levels.
Todd Gleason:But cash crop receipts are still expected to be down by 5% year over year and total production expenses up by just over 2.5%. Separately, the California legislature has approved the sale of E15 in the largest motor fuel consuming state sending the measure to Governor Newsom for his expected signature. California would be the last state to allow E15 sales. The Renewable Fuels Association applauded California Senate for passing the bill, saying that the state is much closer to cleaner fuel use. Researchers at the University of California Berkeley and the US Naval Academy said in a report that California consumers may see up to $2,700,000,000 in savings every year by having E15 available.
Todd Gleason:California is the only state that does not allow sales of the fuel blend. The analysis also finds that a unit increase in octane level results in a value premium of about $0.11 per gallon. California's transition from E10 to E15 could save about 13¢ a gallon on average due to the lower carbon intensity of e 15. And finally today, the National Corn Growers Association president Kenny Hartman junior testified before members of the trade panel established by the US trade representative's office. He praised the administration for investigating Brazil's trade practices and encouraged quick action to address any wrongdoing.
Todd Gleason:He says, unfortunately, Brazil does not value a level playing field and unfairly penalizes US corn growers. Over the past decade, he says, Brazil has taken target to trade actions aimed at evaporating current and future demand for US farmers. The testimony took place after the USTR office initiated a probe under Section three zero one of the 1974 Trade Act to determine whether Brazil engaged in unfair trade practices. US corn growers and ethanol producers once enjoyed a level playing field in Brazil until 2017 when that nation imposed a 20% tariff on US ethanol without provocation. As soon as the tariff kicked in, the market was in free fall decline for US ethanol producers, Hartmann said.
Todd Gleason:And that's a look at today's agricultural news. Let's check-in on the weather forecast now with Eric Snodgrass from Nutrien Ag Solutions in Daggerable. Hi, Eric. Thanks for being with us again. Let's start with the dry August, and the cool weather.
Todd Gleason:What kind of things do you think that might do across the Midwest as it's related to crops?
Eric Snodgrass:Well, I mean, the big thing is it probably took the top end off this yield after what has already been a relatively stress stressful summer for much of the Midwest, especially Illinois, Indiana, Ohio. And don't forget Kentucky and Tennessee. Right? I mean, we had such extreme heat and overnight lows for most of summer. And then when the rain stopped, cooler weather came in, but with it some really dry conditions.
Eric Snodgrass:And the main culprit is the Bermuda Heights. Way off, you know, almost to Africa, which is the big reason why Aaron hurricane Aaron missed and then Fernan, which was the next one missed. And while that all has all happened, I've got places, not just in Illinois, but also down into the Mid South that are going on, like, forty five to fifty days without measurable rainfall. And, yes, some places picked up a little bit of, spotty thunderstorm activity just earlier this week. But overall, that rain just came and went, and things look just as dry as it did before.
Eric Snodgrass:So here we are finding ourselves getting recommendations from Trent Ford, my neighbor, the state climatologist. You know, he's he's a contributor to the drought monitor, and his suggestions are, hey. It's dry. We need to start seeing these, you know, these values increase on the drought monitor for us. And it's got me concerned, Todd, because the epicenter of this drought is on the kinda the Mid Mississippi and Lower Mississippi Valley, then the Ohio Valley, and, you know, the last part of the Missouri Valley.
Eric Snodgrass:And all of that feeds into the Mississippi River, which back in April was nearly 40 feet above low stage, and this morning is nearly two feet below low stage. Now if you dropped another seven feet, it'd be where it was last fall at this time, but we don't wanna go anywhere close to the dryness we saw last fall. But, unfortunately, some of the longer term, outlooks are keeping us that way.
Todd Gleason:Do you understand the hydrology enough to know how fast that can happen by chance?
Eric Snodgrass:I do. So I look at the graphics quite a bit. And believe it or not, during the time of year when we don't have a crop in the ground, okay, when we don't have a crop in the ground, you can get that river to change 10 to 12 feet inside of a week, just with normal rains. Flash flooding events, of course, it can be much more significant. But when there is a fully established corn and soybean crop, and we put heavy rain on the corn belt, very little of it gets into the river because the local environment with the root structure of the crop and the way the crop takes in the water, it just keeps it.
Eric Snodgrass:So that's one of the interesting side effects of having such prolific agriculture around that big river basin is that even with a wet, stormy summer, the river levels can continue to drop because the crop is drinking it all in.
Todd Gleason:Okay. So so the issue we have is that we've got a crop, still drinking some of it in because some of it's green. And we, on the other side, we just don't have rain. Yeah. Do we have any in the forecast at all?
Eric Snodgrass:This is where no one's gonna like me, Todd. I mean, there are chances, but these chances are are pathetic. And most of the models that we have suggest that from Oklahoma through Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, all the way to Pennsylvania is one of the two big dry stretches across North America. And, yeah, there's a front that's coming through. It's a little windier today, and there are some I mean, it's very minuscule, but there are chances for rain.
Eric Snodgrass:But, unfortunately, we don't have access to open Gulf moisture right now. We've gotta wait for this whole pattern to flip around before that occurs. And I'll be honest, through the middle of the month of September, I don't have a whole lot of evidence of more rain. So the net effect of this tide I I've got guys over here that are already harvesting, and it looks like the crop's ready to harvest. I'm sure they've made their moisture measurements, and, you know, they can take it off and and get going.
Eric Snodgrass:So it's pretty amazing to think about, you know, where we found ourselves at the end of this season. And I'll be honest, what this will really mean now that the August data are in is that some of the models that are very sensitive to weather when they predict yield well, I run a version of the Westcott Jewison model. Just I run it on my computer, an Excel spreadsheet. It's real simple. And because of the August dryness in the Eastern Corn Belt, we've seen the number come down to 183.5, right?
Eric Snodgrass:So that's just one number. Do with it what you will. Nobody cares what my number is, but I'll tell it to you anyway just so you can see the effect of the recent weather and the cool weather that's coming too.
Todd Gleason:Oh, we care. Everybody jumped about the time you said that. Okay. It's been cool in the month of August, relatively speaking too. There are some thoughts that this weekend, or at least there were some thoughts this weekend, might cause some issues.
Todd Gleason:I take it you're not worried about it.
Eric Snodgrass:No. With the stronger winds, that's one thing that's gonna help keep the temperatures from plummeting, you know, much out of the forties. You know, there's been a frost already in North Dakota, Northern Wisconsin, Minnesota. I've hit have had some morning frosts. But I'll be honest, Todd, the thing that concerns me more was I was given a talk up in Morris, Illinois on what was that?
Eric Snodgrass:Wednesday. And I brought up a live forecast. And one of the forecast models suggested that by the end of next week, we should be up deep into the nineties again. So, you know, we're gonna go from this like, oh, it's fall, and all of a sudden, we'll be thrown back into the throes of summer. Now I don't think it's gonna get that hot, but I do think we have much warmer conditions coming back in, which is gonna stave off any early frost, you know, discussion that we may have and push it into October where it belongs.
Todd Gleason:Long term outlook. What do you see in The United States?
Eric Snodgrass:Yeah. So just got the new European model data just before you called, and it is attempting to keep fall drier. Okay. Dryer than average. It is not as aggressively dry as we saw a year ago, but drier than average.
Eric Snodgrass:But it went way more aggressive on the development of La Nina, the European model did, because of how cool the ocean temperatures got along the Equator in the month of August. And the trade winds are strong. And so because of that, you can probably recite what I'm gonna say next because we've had four of these out of the last five winters. When we have La Ninas, we tend to get a more active Ohio River Valley storm track, which means we tend to not be talking about those kind of winters that just build in drought. Now I said the same thing last year.
Eric Snodgrass:And where was the storm track, Todd? It was way down across the Gulf Coast, and we were pretty cold throughout the second half of winter. So I would just say take it all with a grain of salt. Know that every La Nina has a different flavor, but it's calling for drought pressure to build across the southern tier of The United States for us to stay active going forward. And, unfortunately, when it looks down at the weather forecast for Brazil, it is not calling for major anomalous precipitation throughout the Cerrado.
Eric Snodgrass:But Southern Brazil into Argentina, of course, the model's going over drier because that's historically consistent with La Nina development. But right now, Todd, all of the attention in Brazil is gonna be in the next forty five days, how much of the crop did they get planted. And by November 1, are they almost done? And so we're gonna have to watch the daily rainfall event and forget about the seasonal forecast for Brazil just to know if they get in, get going quickly, and open up their crop calendar.
Todd Gleason:Alright. Hey. Thank you much. We'll talk with you again next week.
Eric Snodgrass:Alright. Sounds good.
Todd Gleason:It's Eric Snodgrassi with NutriNAG Solutions and Agrabal joined us on this Friday edition of the closing market report that came to you from Illinois Public Medium. It is public radio for the farming world. If you can stay with us for the whole of the hour this afternoon on our home station, you'll hear all of our commodity week program. Otherwise, it's up online right now at willag.0rg. Commodity week is next.
Mike Zuzolo:Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason:Welcome to Commodity Week. I am Todd Gleason. Our panelists for the day include Logan Kimmel. He's at Roach Ag out of Naperville, Illinois. John Zanker is here with Risk Management Commodities, a division of Zaner Ag Hedge from Lafayette, Indiana.
Todd Gleason:And Mike Suzlog joins us from globalcomresearch.com in Atchison, Kansas. Commodity week is a production of Illinois Public Media. It's public radio for the farming world online on demand anytime you'd like to listen to us. Let's get started with a list of items that we should discuss today from each of our panelists. Mike Suzlow, I think we'll start with you today.
Todd Gleason:What's on your list?
Mike Zuzolo:Well, we still feel like that the, corn market is still trying to hold everything together at this point, Todd, but, you know, we're running out of runway with harvest quickly approaching, and we need some support from the soybeans and especially from the wheat here. But I think one good thing about Thursday's close was weather still matters. Crop weather still matters. It seemed like things really changed in terms of short term bias in the trade after the noontime models came out. So that's kinda probably where the next thirty days is gonna be something we need to talk about.
Todd Gleason:John Zanker, risk management commodities on your list for the discussion today?
John Zanker:Well, I think the southern rust issue, especially in Iowa, it might be more than we previously thought. I've been a little bit skeptical as far as it having a huge impact, but after a conversation here an hour ago with our in house agronomist, I I'm who just got back from Iowa, I I'm my concern over that issue is growing, and then, on the other side, for soybeans, jeez, where's China? Least amount of sales on the books since 1999, so and we're running out of time. Something needs to move on that pretty quick.
Todd Gleason:And finally, Logan Kimmel at Roach Ag. What else might we need to take up?
Logan Kimmel:Yeah. Spent last week there, three days at the Farm Progress Show. I had a lot of conversations with folks, I states primarily. So I'd be glad to share my insights on what they're seeing on their crop development here in the latter stages of the growing season. What's changed here maybe a month ago?
Logan Kimmel:Also had a lot of conversations and questions on, hey, what should we be doing marketing wise now on this new crop coming into harvest, a lot of folks sitting maybe undersold. So we have to go over that and conversations I had here last week.
Todd Gleason:Logan Kimmel is with Roach Ag joined us on our commodity week program. If you can stay with us, you'll hear all of that program coming up next. Otherwise, you can hear it online at willag.0rg right now in its entirety. I'm extensions, Todd Gleason.
