Oct 24 | Closing Market Report
From the land of Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market reported. It's the October 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Mike Zuzlow.
Todd Gleason:He's a globalcomresearch.com out of Acheson, Kansas. And then we'll turn our attention to the weather. We'll be joined by Eric Snodgrass at NutriNac Solutions in Dagrabill. You can stay with us for the whole of the hour here on our home station. You'll hear all of our commodity week program.
Todd Gleason:If not, you'll hear portion of it with our panelists, including Ellen Dearden, Naomi Bloom, and Ted Safran. It's already up on the website too at willag.org, or you can search it out by name, commodity week in your favorite podcast applications. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.0rg. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. December corn for the day settled at $4.23 and a quarter.
Todd Gleason:It was down 4 and 3 quarters of a cent. The March at $4.37, 4 and a quarter lower. The May down 3 and a half cents. A settlement price at $4.45 and 3 quarters for the May corn. November soybeans, three lower.
Todd Gleason:$10.41 and 3 quarters. The settlement price January at $10.16 a quarter down a penny and three quarters. And the March at $10.73 and a half down one and three quarters of a cent. Soft bread winter wheat, 4¢ are half cent lower. In the December contract, the hard red up a penny and a half.
Todd Gleason:Live cattle futures in Chicago finished the nearby contract down $7.25 at $233.92 and a half. Feeder cattle were down $9.25 for a 100 pounds at $348 and 17 and a half cents. Lean hogs 12 and a half cents higher at $81.90. Mike Zuzolo, globalcomresearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas now joins us to take up the marketplace on this Friday. Hello, Mike.
Todd Gleason:Thanks for being with us again today. We appreciate that. How are things in your part of the
Mike Zuzolo:Yeah. Quite a few clients calling in on, obviously, the cattle markets and and how to handle those here going into the holidays, especially with the spring calf sales, you know, red hot right now and kind of peaking at this point, adding quite a bit of nervousness and negativity to the the sale barns in in the last half of this past week. Other thing I continue to hear about, Todd, is the finishing up or close to finishing up of some of the harvest data coming from Northwest Missouri, coming from South Central Illinois, all matching up with what we've been hearing for the most part of harvest. The corn yields down 10 to 20. Gonna be say the person I talked to in Northwest Missouri, likely to be more like two twenty as opposed to two forty, two fifty.
Mike Zuzolo:Holding in the soybeans at the mid seventies. South Central Illinois client called Friday morning and said, looking at average on the soybean yields down about 20 on corn yields, gonna be probably top end in the one seventies versus the last couple years of breaking through 200. And so I think the spreads old crop, new crop spreads in corn and some of the basis that's been tracking higher, especially East Of The Mississippi River, picking up on this, I think, pretty nicely.
Todd Gleason:Let's start with the livestock sector. We'll move back to the grains. I do wanna take up both live cattle and feeder cattle off sharply on this Friday. You might have thought that that would have been related to the president's look at importing Argentine beef into The United States, but it was news out of Mexico that their ambassador is planning to ask that the border be opened. And it has to do with screwworm and a whole lot of animals that are south of the border that could come to The US.
Todd Gleason:Can you tell me what you're seeing?
Mike Zuzolo:Yeah. I think that's a long shot at this point as far as the border opening because of the recent cases. And my understanding is the amount of factories to create enough sterile traps is not there yet. It's probably still a couple months away, and we pretty much need those sterile traps. And and those essentially factories have produced these sterile traps to catch and and get the the the bad screwworm flies out of the out of commission.
Mike Zuzolo:But what I think what it does, Todd, is it adds to the idea, and and this is, I think, where Trump's policy is is probably similar to what he did with the egg prices. I think he's gotten to a point with some of the people that he works with that has said beef prices are too high. We need to bring them down. And the the truth social post that he had earlier this week would would give me that kind of feeling, the the way he worded things, and that his goal now is to use whatever's in his arsenal to bring down beef prices. If if I combine that egg policy mindset with 2014 and the idea of hedging because of the the seasonals and what happened in October 2014, it leads me to believe that we're gonna need to be playing defense from here on out into the holidays.
Mike Zuzolo:And the next key support levels that would have to force me into more hedges would be the September lows around $3.50 in feeder cattle and around two twenty eight in fat cattle. In fact, the two twenty eight levels, both the SEP and the August lows in fat cattle. But I think it's important. The Argentine beef really doesn't do anything as far as materially changing supply demand fundamentals. Mexico border would.
Mike Zuzolo:I think what I'm gonna be watching very closely now is what he talks to Brazil about and what he talks to Australia about because he went around his his administration went around and and talked to key countries to bring eggs into this country. I'm guessing he's trying to do that with the beef. So if we're gonna go down another leg, I'm gonna guess it's gonna be because that Australia and Brazil are bringing beef in, and that is a sizable quantity. I would also throw out to cattle ranchers right now who are indeed suffering from this price action that it's important to realize that we've just made a new record high in the stock market on Friday. That's a key element going into the holidays.
Mike Zuzolo:I'm very nervous about Wall Street. And I would also say that the corn market, we've seen very clearly how the feeders have sold feeders and bought corn on the reversal of the spreads, and I think that's where the managed money is right now. So corn keeps going higher past this week's monthly high that may reinstitute even additional selling pressure in the feeders.
Todd Gleason:Just a point of clarification, you said 2014 that has to do with what?
Mike Zuzolo:Yeah. That has to do with the cattle cycle high back in October 2014, I've got about 20 volumes of CRB commodity yearbooks. And when I pulled out the 2015 yearbook that talked about 2014, it read like this year, quite honestly, Todd. So I I've been on this tack that I might as well hedge even before all this stuff happened. Might as well hedge and play it like 2014 just to be safe going into the holidays.
Todd Gleason:And that would put it in line with the eight to ten year beef cattle cycle, kind of longer, but but in that range, I suppose. Now turn your attention to other things you've been watching. What's been on your mind this week?
Mike Zuzolo:We've talked a lot about the wheat and the crude oil not playing ball and helping the soybeans and and the corn. We got that changed this week because of a policy shift and the Trump administration going in with Russian sanctions on oil. We saw the crude oil wake up, and that woke up the WTI and SRW together, I think, Todd, and I think that helped us go on higher into the later part of the trading week. We saw a pullback in corn and soybeans on Friday. Here again, I'm wondering if that's not policy related because of the fact that we shut down talks with Canada, and they are a key biofuel player.
Mike Zuzolo:And I think the market kinda bought into better demand going into Canada for both biodiesel and ethanol. Now maybe they're thinking not as good or maybe less. So maybe pulling back some of their horns there late in the day Friday. But I I think going into next week, it's really important with this move up in soybeans, a, wheat and crude oil continue to support, and b, we better get a meeting. And, like, I know it's set up between The US and China, but it better happen.
Mike Zuzolo:And I think the trade at these price levels really expects something from The US China meeting that something's going to happen. I'm still calling that a long shot. So I'm I'm preparing clients and subscribers for getting some hedges freshened up next week in beans.
Todd Gleason:Before we say goodbye, a quick reminder, and I know you know this, Mike, that Canada is the number one export destination for US ethanol exports. Thanks much. We'll talk with you again next week.
Mike Zuzolo:Thanks, Todd.
Todd Gleason:Mike Zuzlow. He's with globalcomresearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. Let's check the weather forecast now with Eric Snodgrass. He's at Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrabal. Hi, Eric.
Todd Gleason:Thanks much for being with us. Let's start with the rainfall that we have had, maybe some rainfall that we might get, and what things are like here in the Corn Belt.
Eric Snodgrass:Well, I mean, Todd, I don't know about you, but last weekend, right, when it started raining on Saturday, my wife and I just sat up on our porch swing and just watched it rain and enjoyed the sound of rain hitting the roof. It was you know, what's great about last weekend's rain is it lasted for a long time, and it was never intense. So we we we got this nice, good soaking rain, and Southern Illinois got it better than than we did here, and it was it was fantastic. Now it's still fall. We have found ourselves back over into a drier pattern.
Eric Snodgrass:We it's not that we don't have rainfall chances coming up. In fact, there might there might even be chances this weekend. I think the best rains are gonna be south of us, but we we could get some moisture in. But, the reality was is that that system kind of came through and threw the brakes on the rapidly developing, drought. Now our soil moisture problems down deep are not cured.
Eric Snodgrass:Right? We still have problems at subsurface levels, and we know that the Mississippi still has not taken in a lot of this moisture that came through. But it was at least reprieve from what had been an incredibly warm and very, dry late summer into fall. I mean, if you think about it, Todd, from August 1 until the, what, the eighteenth last weekend, most of Central Illinois saw less than two inches of rain over two and a half months, almost two and three quarters months.
Todd Gleason:It was up early this morning, early enough, in fact, to see temperatures outside. We're below freezing today and cool weather, actually, the last couple of days, I suppose, going forward for a while too.
Eric Snodgrass:Yeah. We're well, we're in that typical fall time period where you get rapidly, you know, fluctuating temperatures. Our daily temperature range could be as high as 30 degrees, so we could even see huge swings each day. But the reality is the jet stream's moving. I mean, Todd, I was watching a flight that left, I forget what airport in Japan, but was heading toward Dallas, this morning.
Eric Snodgrass:It had a 190 mile an hour tailwind in the jet stream over the Pacific. Its ground speed was 759 miles an hour when its intended speed was 566. Now what why am I telling you this? I haven't been able to talk about the jet moving across the Pacific Ocean in a while. So that means we're getting into this more routine cadence of weather systems.
Eric Snodgrass:So back to the temperature story. You know, a lot of people listening right now would probably like me to tell them what next Friday is gonna be given that it's, of course, a holiday. Right? We're gonna celebrate Halloween. And I'm telling you, there's a system that's gonna go through.
Eric Snodgrass:We might be on the backside of it getting some colder air in place. Now the faster it gets to the east, the better our chances of a recovery after that. And I do think that the eastern third of the country starts off or finishes October and starts November cooler. But the farther west you go, you're gonna see a rebound in temperatures, and that's very characteristic of of November and October weather. It bounces a lot.
Todd Gleason:Do these kinds of really fast moving jet streams carry with them rainfall?
Eric Snodgrass:They do, and that is the good news about the new November forecast. Most models have us in what we would call the equal chances. In other words, there's no strong wet. There's no strong dry signal, so we we tend to find ourselves in a more routine cadence of weather systems as we go into November. And the fact that the jet is moving is gonna send systems through the Northern West Northwestern United States, and they'll move across the country.
Eric Snodgrass:My big concern, though, is are we gonna get more rain in the South? Now, thankfully, it is raining in Texas and Oklahoma and Arkansas and Louisiana and the Delta. You're going, why what what's thankful about that? Well, if we don't wanna deal with drought issues in The U sorry, in the Central US where we are, we certainly don't want to see them developing to our south first. And that's going be a major concern throughout winter and spring.
Eric Snodgrass:If we find ourselves, by the time we get into March and April, without winter or spring moisture reviving the soil and preventing drought in the Delta, then we could be talking about a scenario next year where we might be struggling to get moisture to this area. So I'm watching the rainfall down there even, I think, more closely than I'm watching for us over the next six months.
Todd Gleason:Speaking of watching rainfall down there, tell me about Brazil where I think they probably need a little rain.
Eric Snodgrass:They do. They've had you know, the monsoon's coming in fits and starts, and it does that. I imagine when we get the report later today on how much progress they made, they'll still likely be sitting somewhere above the five year average. But the model still can't decide on what November is going to look like for them. So it's kind of a pick your model that supports your market position.
Eric Snodgrass:What I mean is if you if you you know, if you're short, shoot. Use the European model. It's dumping rain all throughout the Serato, and it's gonna make it perfect, conditions for germination. If you are long, then you want the GFS to be right. It's bone dry.
Eric Snodgrass:And you're going, well, how are two models so opposed to one another? Well, they're in they're built by entirely different, you know, metrics and mechanisms. They're housed in different parts of the world, and right now, they do not agree. But the only thing they agree on is that parts of Argentina will likely slip over dry in November, and that is a key signal to watch because that is linked to the La Nina that's developing. So there will be a there will be a weather story coming out of Brazil in the next two to three months that we will have to spend a lot of time talking about.
Todd Gleason:Hey. Thanks much. We appreciate it. We'll talk with you more about it later.
Eric Snodgrass:That sounds good. Thanks, Todd.
Todd Gleason:Eric Snodgrass is with Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrabal joined us on this Friday edition of the closing market report that came to you from Illinois Public Media.
