Oct 22 | Closing Market Report
From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market reported as the October 2025. I'm extension's Tut Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson from TGM. That's Total Grain Marketing.
Todd Gleason:He helps to operate the elevator right here in Champaign County. Then we'll turn our attention to MAHA or the Make America Healthy Again movement from the Trump administration and how the general populace sees it and the impact it has been having and may have in the future on agriculture. And then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast too. We'll do that with True Lerner at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio with the Farming World online on demand at w I l l a g dot o r g.
Todd Gleason:That's willag.org where today you can sign up for the farm assets conference and the Illinois farm economic summits, both of them, either or if you would prefer just to go to one, but I think you ought to go to both. The Illinois farm economic summits take place the week of December, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday in DeKalb, Peoria, and Mount Vernon. And on the previous Friday, the twelfth, the farm assets conference is in Bloomington. It should be a great week with The Ag Economist. I hope you will join us.
Todd Gleason:You can sign up at willag.org. And if you scroll down the page, you'll find a webinar tomorrow on agriculture and the government shutdown. That's at 11AM. More details coming up in a few minutes. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason:December corn for the day settled at $4.23. It was up three and a quarter. The March at four thirty five and three quarters. Two higher in May corn up a penny in three quarters at $4.43 and a half. November beans, ten thirty four and three quarters, 4¢ higher on the day.
Todd Gleason:The January up a penny and a half. It settled at $10.50, and March soybeans at $10.63, a quarter of a cent higher. Bean meal, three dollars ten cents higher. The bean oil down 58¢ in December wheat, three and a half higher for the soft red at five zero three and three quarters the hard red in the December at $4.88 and a half up 3 and a half cents. Live cattle futures down $5.60.
Todd Gleason:Feeders $9.25 lower. Greg Johnson now joins us from TGN. That's totalgrainmarketing.com. From right here in Champaign County, he manages the elevator. Thank you much, Greg, for being with us.
Todd Gleason:I've traveled enough to know that at least in our part of the world, a lot of, the corn is gone. Soybeans are really just finished up or, for the most part, very much finished up. Are you staying busy still?
Greg Johnson:We are. I think a lot of people are getting close to being done, and they all would like to get done before the next round of rain comes in, which originally was forecasted for this weekend. But, the last I heard, they've taken the rain out of the forecast for this weekend, pushed it back to Tuesday. So most people are trying to get done ahead of the rains on Tuesday, Wednesday next week. And, so we're still busy, but, every day we're getting a few more people finished up.
Greg Johnson:I would say in our particular area, we're probably approaching 94, 95% done on on corn. And, there's still a few double crop beans left out there. So we're not 100%, but it's 99.9% done on soybeans.
Todd Gleason:What do you think of marketplace at this time?
Greg Johnson:The market has rallied nicely. You know, the old traders adage is look at the basis first, then look at the spreads and then the futures will follow. Well, the basis has really improved. That tells you that, either we found more storage space or that the crop isn't quite as big as what we thought. And maybe in the Iowa area, it isn't as big as what we thought.
Greg Johnson:But, we've seen basis levels really improve. We've seen the spreads improve. December, March corn spread started to fall at $0.18 spread. It's in the $0.13 So that's another indication that farmers are tight holders, that there's plenty of storage space, and that the demand, export demand, is really good. So, spreads are indicating a little bit of bullishness.
Greg Johnson:The basis is indicating a little bit of bullishness and we've seen futures, improve. December corn was 3.9, at the low, and now we're in the 4.2 area. So that's a nice 30¢ rally. I know it's not a lot, but it's better than nothing. And, know, you we're kind of stuck in that range for we can't get above $4.25, but, we we don't drop very much lower than where we are now either.
Greg Johnson:So, you know, we're we're kind of in a sideways pattern, but, with the kind of yields that we've had, it may not be a bad place to be at for now.
Todd Gleason:So I do have a question about this space, because farmers, I take it, are still holding on to their grain and not making any sales. Correct?
Greg Johnson:Yeah. Early on, when we were in bean harvest about a month ago, three weeks ago, farmers were selling beans to generate cash flow, but not corn. But once we got, two thirds of the way through the bean harvest, I think the farmers that wanted to sell beans got those sold. And so they're holding onto the rest. So yes, in the last two to three weeks, very little corn or bean movement.
Greg Johnson:We haven't seen hardly any corn movement all fall. We have we did see a little bit of bean movement early in the harvest period, but now very little movement in either corn or soybeans.
Todd Gleason:You and I have both made travels about an hour straight south of here, where we didn't really see anything that was left to harvest. Also, I will make note that while I thought that maybe there would be a lot of white bags on the ground, That didn't seem to be the case either.
Greg Johnson:There's a few more than last year, I think, but, no, not the, it's quite an investment to to invest in bags, and, you know, it's it's a relatively new technology. I don't think a lot of people wanna do that unless, you know, they they really see the benefit. So there's a few more bags out there, I think, but not not a tremendous amount, compared to the previous couple of years.
Todd Gleason:So if that's not the case in our area where we believe that the numbers remain good, particularly for corn, where did the space come from? Did they put it in machine sheds? Is it on the ground? What has happened?
Greg Johnson:I think a lot of it has moved to The Gulf. Exports continue to be very, very strong with the weak dollar and with the price below $4 cash for most of the fall harvest. I think importing countries have said this is a good deal and they've been locking up corn purchases. So I think a lot of the corn has moved already into the export channels, and that's that's good. If that continues, on corn, you know, and and you combine that with maybe a lower national yield, that's why the farmers are holding on to corn.
Greg Johnson:They think there's a potential for a little bit more of a rally in the corn price.
Todd Gleason:The grain companies would have reason to keep their barges running at this time of the year. Will that change once we get into January and February, meaning are we just front loading what the export market might need?
Greg Johnson:To some extent, yes. The spreads narrowing up are encouraging farmers and elevators to move grain sooner rather than later. That may not, you know, once that demand gets satisfied, we may see the spreads relax a little bit. We may see the futures market relax a little bit, but hopefully by then we'll have the government back up and running and we can actually see some reports as to what kind of national yield we're working with. Are we working with a 185, 187, or are we working with a 182, 183 type number?
Greg Johnson:And so, you know, everybody has their opinion today, but that's all it is, is an opinion. Until the government opens back up and starts coming out with their numbers. The trade, really doesn't know where we're at for sure. And so I think that's why we're, you know, kind of, in this unknown sideways pattern. Think the trade is waiting for the government to tell us what's out there and what's not out there.
Todd Gleason:In the mean space, the trade, the basis is saying, give me the corn. Are producers actually making those sales?
Greg Johnson:They are not. On on beans, you know, the the basis has improved a little bit, not as much as what it has on corn. The spreads have improved a little bit. That November bean spread was 20 starting harvest now at 17. So it's improved $03 but that's not near as much as what the corn spreads have improved.
Greg Johnson:And the futures haven't, improved, quite as much. They have improved some. So corn is definitely the leader in both basis spreads and also futures. But, you know, the soybeans are kind of tagging along for the ride. There's some stories out this morning that the government USDA FSA offices are going to open back up.
Greg Johnson:And so that might generate a little bit more money for the farmers. And so the question is, what does that extra money in the farmer's hands do? Does that make them more willing to sell soybeans, figuring, Hey, I'm getting some extra money from the government that I wasn't counting on? Or does it, make them even more tight holders, thinking now I've got some cash flow dollars, I really don't need to sell anything until I get the price that I want? So that's a big question that I'm you know, we're kind of debating ourselves and not sure what the answer is.
Greg Johnson:Will this influx of government money, will that stimulate more farmer movement or will it make them even more tight holders?
Todd Gleason:It won't change the supply side or the demand side. And I'm wondering what you're thinking about the marketplace and its direction.
Greg Johnson:It won't change the overall supply. You're correct. What it does is it might temporarily keep that grain from moving. So it gives you the impression that corn is and beans are tighter than, you know, if farmers are tighter holders, the pipeline's not quite as filled. So then you have to improve the spreads and basis even more to get elevators and commercials to move that grain.
Greg Johnson:So you're right. In the big picture, it doesn't change anything, but what it might do is tighten up the spreads a little bit, take away some of the carry, try to incentivize farmers to move it sooner rather than later.
Todd Gleason:Could be interesting to see how it all unfolds. Thank you much. We'll talk with you again next week.
Greg Johnson:Alright. Thanks, Todd.
Todd Gleason:Greg Johnson is with TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com right here in Champaign County, Illinois. Now tomorrow, if you're wondering about those FSA offices opening up and what the government shutdown actually means for agriculture, you can join myself and the PharmDoc team for a webinar. The team with some special guests will discuss the impacts of the government shutdown on agriculture. The panelists will talk about how the shutdown has already impacted the data and reports for the sector as well as farmers, finances, and access to services through the first three weeks.
Todd Gleason:You should join us as well. It's free and simple to do. You can get yourself registered online at the PharmDoc Daily website. That's pharmdocdaily.illinois.edu by clicking under webinars and events and then looking for the government shutdown and agriculture webinar. Or you can do it on our website at willag.org, willag.0rg.
Todd Gleason:In the calendar, you'll find the government shutdown and agriculture webinar from the PharmDoc team. Click on that to open it up, and there's a link you can either cut and copy and paste it somewhere to make sure that you get to the right place to get yourself registered or just click more information, and it will open up a hot link for you to click on. That's the government shutdown in agriculture from eleven to noon tomorrow. Register today on our website at willag.org. Public support for MAHA or the Trump Administration's Make America Healthy Again movement remains high, but perceptions have become more negative.
Todd Gleason:The MAHA Commission was established through executive order in February. Tasked with advising President Donald Trump on the most effective strategies to address childhood chronic diseases. The Commission's initial report, released in May, identified what it claims are four key contributing factors. These include poor diet, the accumulation of environmental chemicals, lack of physical activity, chronic stress, and over medication. It also critiqued certain aspects of the food system, particularly the use of some food additives and pesticides.
Todd Gleason:Agricultural economists at the University of Illinois have been tracking how Americans feel about MAHA, including, says Maria Kalatzin to Nikes, how they feel about different agricultural products.
Maria Kalaitzandonakes:So we've been asking about support across commodity types for a while now, and we recently compared results from May 2022, so about three years ago, and then in August. And we did find slight declines in support for field crops and sugar crops. The largest increase we saw was for livestock, sort of in line with this national excitement about protein.
Todd Gleason:Now some of these reflect how leadership at the federal level are framing MAHAI. It's clearly been a concern for row crop agriculture and food companies. Base ingredients for many food products come from farm fields. Farmers use fertilizers and pesticides to increase productivity. Kalatson to Nike says the CPGs or consumer packaged goods food companies were glad to see the friendly shift from the May MAHA report to the one released in August.
Todd Gleason:Still, she says they're concerned about both federal and state level regulations spurred by the MAHA movement.
Maria Kalaitzandonakes:I think the the piece that's probably not being talked about enough here is the state law piece. A lot of these sort of voluntary agreements that people are committing to are on the same timelines as state requirements. They're saying it's a voluntary agreement, but really it's they want to sell into that state and so they're going to comply. If you are a CPG company, it is very difficult to keep product off of shelves in a particular state. Talked to lots of companies about is it possible to segregate and create a West Virginia specific or a Texas specific space, and that's not possible for them.
Todd Gleason:U of I ag economist says this is because the litigation piece spurred by MAHA will land on food companies, not retailers. If a retailer sells an incorrect product in a state, that's not on them. It's the responsibility of the CPG that has to navigate a web of regulatory do's and don'ts that cross state lines. Those following the federal developments say the pulse in DC is that the MAHA trajectory is likely to outlive the Trump administration. For instance, it's unlikely companies will add food dyes back into their products.
Todd Gleason:Still, there is not a federal legal structure requiring companies to stay the course. There is no regulatory agenda yet and no laws being passed by Congress. This is why state lines will matter. It's all complicated, but from the U of I survey work, there remains good news for farmers.
Maria Kalaitzandonakes:It's worth not losing the big picture that the American public is generally very supportive of farmers and thinks of farmers and agriculture as being very important. Again and again, we see in surveys that consumers have national security questions and concerns about food production and want to make sure that we're producing food in The US and are very supportive of policy supporting agriculture. Should agriculture want to engage with MAHA in some of these ways and change production practices, the public is also generally supportive of of subsidy sort of situations to allow for transitions in production practices.
Todd Gleason:That's the public, but not MAHA, which consensus for the moment suggests is unlikely to bend in a way that would create compromise on its four core contributing factors, including the use of pesticides. Let's turn our attention to the weather forecast for the growing regions across the planet. Drew Lerner is here from World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Hello, Drew. Thanks for being with us today.
Drew Lerner:Yeah. It's more autumn like than it's been for a while. Yeah.
Todd Gleason:It really feels cool. A lot more autumn like. I like autumn. So, that first cold air, especially when we've been above, makes you feel really cold outside sometimes, but but you acclimate to it fairly quickly. Now speaking of that, I do wanna talk about some of the things that have been happening.
Todd Gleason:A little rain last weekend. Looks like there's more more cold air going to spill in potentially possibly a freezer, frost in a few places. Oh, that's all in South America, isn't it? Oh, why why don't you take that up? And then we'll talk kind of about the same thing in The United States, but start in South America for me.
Drew Lerner:Okay. Alright. Well, the situation in South America is kind of interesting, in the sense that, you you mentioned the cold, I might as well stick with the cold theme here for a moment. There's gonna be an impressive cold air mass that's going to move through Argentina as we go forward into the first part of next week. And as that cold air comes in, there's going to be a risk of some frost and freezes in La Pampa and parts of Buenos Aires.
Drew Lerner:Now Buenos Aires is the nation's most important wheat producing province and it is, they are in the midst right now of reproduction. So getting temperatures down near and below freezing could be a little bit of an issue there. We're still obviously several days away. This will probably be coldest on Tuesday of next week. So there's a lot of time for this to change, but I just kind of wanted to make mention of it since we won't talk again before it happens.
Drew Lerner:That cold air should go out to sea. It shouldn't be a factor for any other part of South America. But we do have a big rain event that precedes that in Argentina. And Argentina does have some dryness issues in Cordoba and Santa Fe and some neighboring areas in Santiago Del Estero. And so these areas should get a halfway decent amount of rain between now and when the cold air comes in.
Drew Lerner:And so by the time we get to maybe Sunday, I think many of these areas will get a good drink of water and the long term outlook for Argentina will continue to be very good. You know, we're right on the cusp here of beginning to put soybeans into the ground in Argentina. November is the main month and you couldn't ask for better timing for this moisture come around. So their soybeans are going to go in the ground in a very quick manner, most likely just as their early corn has in Brazil, it's a different story. You know, we've got a lot of issues with not so great early season rainfall.
Drew Lerner:Last weekend we got a decent rain system to move across Brazil, probably the best coverage rain event that we've seen this season. With that said though, the coverage of rain amounts of an inch or more was less than 30% And it's been very warm and dry the last couple of days. We're already losing the moisture. So some short term benefit for planting has kicked in here, but we are going to go another week without rain in parts of Center West and northern parts of Center South. Rain in early November is going to be all very important.
Drew Lerner:I think we're getting a little bit behind in the development in Brazil and we may be looking at a delay in the safrinha corn planting for next year because of this, but it's still a long ways off, and we'll just have to keep an eye on the whole scenario.
Todd Gleason:Here in The United States, what are you watching?
Drew Lerner:You know, in The US, we've had some alternating periods of rain and sunshine here recently. Last weekend's precipitation was certainly welcome in many areas. It helped to improve the moisture profile in Illinois, Indiana, and many neighboring states, Michigan and down into the Delta. So all of this was welcome. It was needed for the winter wheat crop for sure.
Drew Lerner:It did set us back in the fields just a little bit. But, know, the soil assessment we've done since then doesn't show it's all that terribly wet in very many places. That ground just absorbed that like a sponge. And we are still looking at very good harvest conditions across the region. Now as we go forward through this next seven to ten day period, we will see alternating periods of rain and sunshine, but most of the precipitation is going to be light and temporary.
Drew Lerner:It's not going to be big storm systems that last for days on end. We're gonna see this harvest continue to steam right along, I think. There will be a little bit more disruption than what we've been seeing earlier in the harvest season, but I don't see any big issues at the moment.
Todd Gleason:Both fall like temperatures, and this is an important one. Stick around. I know it's a long ways out for Halloween on Friday the thirty first.
Drew Lerner:You know, I think it will. We have two troughs of low pressure that will be coming across the Midwest between now and then, and both will just kinda reinforce this milder regime. That will heat up between the two events as they come and go. But I think that when we get out to Halloween, we will have the warmer side of one of these troughs coming into the region temporarily. There may also be a chance for some rain, unfortunately for parts of the region.
Drew Lerner:And then some more cool air will come in immediately after that over the second weekend. So if it if it turns out to be as well timed as I just described, it will be warm enough that the kids will enjoy it, and and then we'll cool down afterwards. But we do have that risk of rain.
Todd Gleason:They're a big candy. The kids will enjoy it regardless.
Drew Lerner:That's right. Once you're on that high, you're there.
Todd Gleason:You betcha. Thanks much. And we'll talk with you next Wednesday. That, of course, is Drew Lerner. He is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City.
Todd Gleason:You've been listening to the closing market report on this Wednesday afternoon. Do visit our website at willag.org. You'll find the farm assets conference there. A way to sign up and register for it. It's December 12.
Todd Gleason:And in the calendar of events tomorrow's PharmDoc team webinar on the government closure and its impact on agriculture, that's free. You can sign up for the webinar there too, just click on the red line government and ag and then you'll be able to find a link inside there. You probably need to follow the details to get that link to be hot, but it will be. And thanks for joining us this afternoon. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.
Todd Gleason:Doctor.
