May 22 | Closing Market Report
From the Lend to Grand University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report for the May 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. In Chicago today, corn and wheat futures ended narrowly mixed soybeans were up just about 4¢. We'll have more in a moment from Matt Bennett at AgMarket.net. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason:Matt Bennett from AgMarket.net is now here to take a look at the marketplace. Hello, Matt. Thanks for being with us. I know you're not in the field today. I do want to know if you managed to get in the field again.
Todd Gleason:After we talked last week, you were having some issues and had only been in a couple of times. Did you get all your corn planted?
Matt Bennett:You know, we got all the corn planted and finished up late last week, and then, you know, we ended up with basically get being able to be almost done. I mean, we were very close to getting done, but we just couldn't get our last farm to dry out that we were going for with beans and could have planted it right in front of that rain after we got it worked, you know, and ready to pretty much ready to go. It's just too heavy, and then we had an inch and a half of rain. So I'm kinda glad we didn't do it.
Todd Gleason:But you're behind for you particularly, and your part of the world. To the south of you and in other directions, are farmers still struggling to get the rest of the crops in?
Matt Bennett:Yeah. No doubt about it. I mean, we've got guys in Ohio that haven't hardly turned a wheel. Some guys in Southern Illinois have also struggled parts of Indiana. So there was a pretty big area in that, you know, you would call it like South Corn Belt that's just really had a rough time this year.
Matt Bennett:Forecast still looks like it might be a little bit wet. And so, you know, you gotta ask yourself, at at what point, you know, is that becoming into the market? And, you know, I think the market right now is pretty comfortable just simply due to the fact that ParGas has been so good. So, you know, we're sitting here talking about it in two weeks, so I think it could get a little more serious.
Todd Gleason:Yeah. This is the part where it begins to get interesting with the crop progress reports because they are intent on what will be planted, and as soon as a farmer makes a decision, or whoever is looking at it has decided the farmer made a decision to do prevent plant or not to put the crop in the ground, then that drops out, and the prevent and the crop progress numbers continue to go up, but so it's very difficult to tell. I don't quite recall when all the prevent plant dates will be for corn and soybeans in those region regions. Corn much earlier than soybeans, of course, but we'll have to keep track of that. And the marketplace will have a difficult time with it as well.
Todd Gleason:How long do you think it will take if these acres actually don't get planted for the market to recognize it?
Matt Bennett:Yeah. I think, ultimately, if you stay this wet now there's no doubt in my mind that the market's gonna pay attention to it probably in the next two weeks. So if you get close to June, you know, and you're still in this wet pattern, to me, you're probably gonna see some folks start to raise eyebrows. Because, obviously, you know, when you look at the balance sheet from the USDA, one point eight billion bushel doesn't look too bad. But, I mean, that's assuming all the acres get planted.
Matt Bennett:That's assuming a one eighty one yield. And so, you could probably assume the yield easier than you could the acres as we sit here today. But at the same time, one eighty one is a big ask. You know, I know the genetics are capable, but we've certainly had a hard time being able to kinda punch up there. So, I do think in the next two weeks, you'll be paying attention to it if this weather pattern holds.
Todd Gleason:Because Southern Illinois, Southern Indiana, parts of Ohio are, not on the best of yield range, will it have an impact on yield even if they get planted or very much of one?
Matt Bennett:You know, if they get planted, I mean, there's no doubt that, it's gonna be late enough that you could have some issues as far as that being even a tougher crop, you know, to expect big yields out of. So there's no doubt your fringe areas are always gonna impact yield to an extent, but you have to remember and I would I wouldn't call parts of Ohio fringe. I mean, there's a lot of good production that comes out of Ohio. But one thing to consider overall, yeah, it might not have a huge impact on yield, but that's the part of the world that needs the corn the worst right now. There's no doubt with the Southeast having a drought last year and parts of the Southeastern Corn Belt, basis has been awfully hot.
Matt Bennett:We know places in Indiana that are currently bidding 50 over on corn, Southeastern Indiana. Bottom line is you've got a real need out there. So if you don't raise a crop on top of that, it can have pretty big basis implications that might be far reaching.
Todd Gleason:So that would be in the local area, but broadly across the futures markets, how much of an impact do you suppose?
Matt Bennett:Well, I mean, clearly, the futures markets have not paid attention to what we normally do with the fundamental type discussion. 1.415, that's awfully tight. You look at basis, basis just continues to improve. Market really hasn't paid a lot of attention to it. Now today is the first time in a long time that we've seen some bull spreading here.
Matt Bennett:And you've got to think whenever you start looking at some of the basis levels that continue to firm, if you will, you've gotta think maybe some of these guys are gonna step back in and maybe buy some corn. Mean, clearly, the funds have been big sellers. Are they gonna continue that in the face of what we're looking at right now? And I think maybe the easier answer is that they probably won't. I mean, you continue to see this really strong demand.
Matt Bennett:Exports definitely look like they need to be adjusted higher once again, maybe 50, maybe more. And so, you know, you're probably gonna tighten up that carryout even more. So what that would do is it would put you in a position where maybe these, people would would want to bull spread corn, in a major way with any sort of weather. You know? I don't know if that happens by the time July goes off the board is the thing.
Matt Bennett:Timing is gonna be very interesting here, but I do think there'll be a time in this summer. If you have weather issues, you'll see your front month contract rally sharply versus the deferred. So it'll be very interesting to see how it plays out.
Todd Gleason:So if you have gambling stocks and you're in parts of Indiana, Ohio, maybe Southern Illinois worth holding on to for old crop, how quickly does that back up, in the basis as it reflects something more Central Illinois based?
Matt Bennett:Well, I I think that it it'll continue to work its way. That's the thing. It'll continue to work its way to the West to an extent. I don't think you'll see real hot basis levels, for instance, in our part of the world until some of these bushels that were bought in a major way earlier in the year end up getting, you know, drying up, so to speak. So I do think that the biggest time for you know, to pay attention to would be mid July into August.
Matt Bennett:Some of these end users were very well covered out to summer time frame, but I don't think they've got much coverage in August. So some of this crop's going in the ground late in some of the areas, once again, the basis is strong. And so that could provide some really big basis implications that would rapidly advance away from where they need the corn the most. So to me, you're probably looking at being several weeks away from that getting to be a super interesting discussion barring weather issues. So if you do end up drying back out in the West, and most of these long range models continue to point towards summer drought in the West, if that would come to pass and you start getting really hot and dry in June, I think the market's gonna pay very close attention.
Todd Gleason:Yeah. Just so points of clarification as we talk through old and new crop and basis here. We're talking mostly about moving corn out into the Southeast to feed the livestock sections, poultry and pork in the Carolinas that would come out of Ohio, parts of Indiana, even some of Illinois as well. And because that is a pull out of the old crop stocks, futures and basis there or the price difference between cash price and futures prices would jump, could have an impact on new crop basis as well, mostly because the planting is delayed for corn. Now for soybeans, it's a slightly different story, I suppose, maybe because that crop can be planted later and do fairly well.
Todd Gleason:What's your outlook and assessment of it?
Matt Bennett:Yeah. I mean, with soybeans, the thing is is regionally speaking, you've got some really strong basis levels. I mean, shoot, basis narrowed again here this week in Central Illinois. Basis has been, in all honesty, pretty strong for beans. The thing is, though, of course, a lot of growers sell their beans up front.
Matt Bennett:A lot of growers don't store beans. And so sometimes, especially whenever stocks start tightening, which we saw them tighten here in May, you can get some pretty interesting basis discussions. So I think moving forward, if I had gambling stocks on beans as well, I'd probably be patient because if you get some weather to unfold, Todd, those could be awfully good property. Now if I had a lot of beans, I'd be paying attention to the fact beans have been fairly strong here lately. Dole a few of them out.
Matt Bennett:But gambling stocks, I think I'd probably hold on to them.
Todd Gleason:Now if there wasn't a lot of weather to push this along, are you a seller of new crop on these pushes higher, especially if it's basis only?
Matt Bennett:You know, as far as new crop sales, I don't want to do much until we get closer to that $4.70 spring insurance price. I mean, over the last twenty years, we've revisited that every time that we've come out, you know, the month of February with a lower average. We got close to it here in April, '4 '60 '9 and a half, but we didn't get to it. So I've gotta think the law of averages tells me, especially with some of the weather abnormalities, especially with the fact this market really has no weather premium at all, I'm probably gonna be a little more patient for the time being. Now a disclaimer, I've got some corn sold already.
Matt Bennett:I know we've got a decent percentage there. And overall, I've gotta think that, you know, if I didn't have any corn sold at all, yeah, I'd probably be tempted to step in, but I really don't wanna lock in a loss. And I know a lot of growers, you know, in this four fifty three level that we settled at today are probably not looking at profitable sales.
Todd Gleason:Hey. Thank you much. I appreciate it. Absolutely. Thank you, Todd.
Todd Gleason:Mhmm. That is Matt Bennett. He is with AgMarket.net. In today's agricultural news, the MAHA or make America healthy again report was released today. The Trump administration, according to a press release from USDA, says the report, quote, is a call to evaluate the many reasons American families, particularly children, face high rates of chronic health issues and it encourages additional research and education on diet, environmental exposures, lack of physical activity, and over medicalization.
Todd Gleason:USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins says she looks forward to continuing to work with Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy and other members of the MAHA Commission to improve the nation's health. Kennedy, for his part Tuesday, inferred during a Senate committee hearing the report in the drafts he had seen did not mention the chemical glyphosate commonly known as Roundup. It does on page 42 and atrazine as well, both under heading titled Crop Production Tools including Pesticides, Herbicides, and Insecticides, where it says some studies have raised concerns about possible links between some of these products and adverse health outcomes. The report cites a selection of research studies on glyphosate and a range of possible human health effects.
Todd Gleason:It also points to animal studies related to the herbicide Atrazine, noting common exposures to pesticides including from lawn care, farming, and pesticide residues. However, the report in that same heading notes A large scale FDA study of pesticide residues found the majority of samples more than 90% were compliant with the federal standards and that more recent data from USDA's pesticide data program found 99% of food samples tested in 2023 were compliant with the EPA's safety limits. A new national survey commissioned by CropLife America, which advocates on behalf of pesticide manufacturers, shows strong trust in American farmers and public recognition of the benefits pesticides provide in making food available and affordable. The MAHA report may undermine that trust. Let's stay with farm chemicals, but we'll move now to the state of Illinois.
Todd Gleason:A bill is making its way through the Illinois General Assembly that will impact agricultural pesticide application licenses. If enacted, SB783 would update the current system testing once and requiring fifteen hours of continuing education over a repeating three year period to maintain the license. Kevin Johnson of the Illinois Fertilizer and Chemical Association says if at the end of any three year period the continuing education requirement is not met, then retesting for the pesticide applicator's license would be required.
Kevin Johnson:So right now how it stands, you would have to take fifteen hours over those three years. If you only take thirteen or fourteen hours before that three year license up, you would have to retest.
Todd Gleason:The pesticide applicator legislation passed out of the Illinois Senate yesterday on a 50 to four vote. It now moves to the Illinois house ag committee. If passed out of committee, the bill would move to the floor for a full vote before the Illinois general assembly's May thirty one spring legislative deadline. And that's a look at today's agricultural news. Mike Tanura is here.
Todd Gleason:He's the president and CEO of T Storm Weather. That's tstorm.net online. Thank you, Mike, for taking some time with me. It's been a busy spring. Some places have been wet, some places have been dry.
Todd Gleason:Let's start I think today just with a broad forecast for the Corn Belt.
Mike Tannura:Yeah, well we basically have rains that are coming up to southern growing areas over the next week. We're looking for heavy totals in the Mid South. 1 and a half to three inches of rain is on the way. Some of that rain could reach as far north as Southern Illinois and that's kind of where we're watching for the next few days and even in the next week. How far north will that rain come.
Mike Tannura:But basically southern areas are going to receive quite a bit of rain. As we move into the central part of the Central US, which includes most of the corn and soybean growing bills, so just think of everybody from Nebraska through Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. That whole region there is going to also receive some rain, but it looks like totals will be more in the moderate category, anywhere from a quarter of an inch on the light side to maybe three quarters of an inch or one inch on the high side. And then as you move north from there, the forecast is drier. Now this is all happening because we have yet another large upper level system that's approaching.
Mike Tannura:This one is going to move across the Central US starting up tomorrow and Saturday, but more so Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday including Memorial Day. And the exact track of that system is difficult to determine. We know it's going to move across the century West, so that part is pretty easy. The hard part though is if this system just moves a little bit further north, that'll bring more rain into corn and soybean areas. If it goes a little bit further south, then all of a sudden things will be looking a lot better at least from a drying standpoint for northern areas because there won't be much rain at all from I 80 onto the North.
Mike Tannura:But we're still just a little bit too far out to have a huge amount of confidence in the exact setup. But again, wet south, kind of a mixed rainfall set up central, and then drier as you head to the north into the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Todd Gleason:Can I have you divide the forecast, and maybe the climate might be a better way to put this, up into crops for me and what you think has been happening, to this point and how you see maybe it developing over time? I'm thinking corn, soybeans, and maybe spring wheat. Could you start with corn?
Mike Tannura:Yeah. Let's start with corn. So the story with corn is that we have some pretty great planting opportunities here over the last few weeks. But the thing that's a little bit challenging is that corn planting is actually going to be a little bit behind normal for this time of the year. A couple of days ago, we basically had around 80% of the crop planted.
Mike Tannura:But just from looking at the lack of rain in many areas, you would think it would have been a lot higher than that, but it wasn't. On the other hand, soybeans were doing a lot better. Soybean planting is ahead of schedule. Well, now we're kind of in a situation where we really need to get this corn in because it's the May. You start planting corn in June, you're really asking for some trouble with drier weather once you typically get into August and September.
Mike Tannura:And also, the frost risk starts to go up if you're planting that late once you get into the end of the year. So we need to focus on corn. The problem is that these rains are coming up for at least the southern areas, and even though that might not be exactly in the heart of the corn region, this is not an ideal setup. Ideally, right now, you'd have no rain and it would be super warm out. So we have some rain and it's actually super cool out.
Mike Tannura:This is one of the cooler amarasses that we've seen in May for a while. Now that cooler will eventually go away once we get about a week out from now, and then things will start to improve again. But, Todd, look at the calendar. It's May 22. A week from now is May 29, and only then are we starting to get back into a more normal temperature setup.
Mike Tannura:So, you know, it's not a great story. I mean, the only way to really have things turn great is if that system we're talking about for next week were to shift a lot further to the south and then leave a big area dry. Now the thing that really complicates this so, Todd, is that if you look at the heart of the Corn Belt, there's still some areas of Illinois and Iowa, even Missouri and Nebraska that need more rain. Over the last thirty days, some of these people have been kind of dry. So, you know, what do you want?
Mike Tannura:Do you want the dry weather or do you want the wet weather? And that's why this time of the year is always a little bit tricky. So basically, it could be better for corn. The soybean story is similar, except that you really wanna see dry weather, especially in the southern areas. And we've had a pretty wet spring in the Mid South and even a part in the parts of the Southern Corn Belt, and that's where the rain chances are high going forward.
Mike Tannura:One thing, Todd, we did not talk about is spring wheat. I feel like spring wheat has been very wet in the Western Dakotas. Kind of this anomalous setup has happened over the last ten days where it just keeps raining in the Western Dakotas, That's turned basically about a third of that crop super wet with more than twice their normal rainfall over the last thirty days. That does not extend deep into the corn and soybean area of the Dakotas, though they're certainly wet, but they'll be drying out as we move forward, so that might negate that story a little bit. But it's a real mixed bag in the Central US as you can tell.
Mike Tannura:And all these stories will start to come together with, you know, a little more of a foundation once we get ten to fourteen days from now.
Todd Gleason:Do you have an indication of what you think June might look like?
Mike Tannura:Well, at least the first part of it looks to be warmer as we noted. High temperatures should be back into the 70s and 80s, maybe even some 90s in the Dakotas, so kind of similar to what we had a few weeks ago. Beyond that, the rainfall setup is a little tricky. There are some systems moving across, so we think there'll be some rain in some areas, maybe not a super wet setup. But once again, once we get into these southern areas, the rain chances look a little better.
Mike Tannura:We have a chance for rain in Oklahoma, Texas, and again in the Mid South from either an upper level system that moves across the Southern US or from a quasi tropical system that forms near Florida around June 1. There's a few hints of that. Now is this gonna be a major hurricane or something like that? No. I mean, this is too early in the year for something like that.
Mike Tannura:But between both of those events, the rain chances are again pretty high in the southern areas. And then as you move north, they're not as great.
Todd Gleason:One last question, and I won't hold you to this because we're still a few days out, but Sunday, the Indy five hundred will be run-in Indianapolis. What
Matt Bennett:does
Todd Gleason:the weather hold for the race drivers that day?
Mike Tannura:Well, more than likely, it should be a nice day. We will have cool temperatures, so it won't be one of these hot days that we've seen occasionally in the nineties or anything like that. It'll probably be in the sixties, so it'll be pretty pleasant out there in that regard. There'll also be an east wind, and that east wind is more than likely going to just keep any of the rain that we've been talking about outside of Indiana until we get more into Monday than Sunday. So at this point in time, it looks pretty nice.
Mike Tannura:It doesn't look like there'll be a major rain event. There will be rain approaching from the West, but we think that even in Illinois, the rain chances aren't even all that high on Sunday afternoon. So more than likely, Indiana is going to be protected from rain by the cool air mass that we're in, and they should be okay until they get into Monday when everybody will be waiting for a little bit of rain, I suppose.
Todd Gleason:Hey. Thank you much. I appreciate it. Yeah. Sure thing, Todd.
Todd Gleason:That's Mike Tenari. He's the president and CEO at t storm weather. That's tstorm.net online. You've been listening to the closing market report on this Thursday afternoon for the May. We'll record our commodity week program this afternoon and post it to our website this evening.
Todd Gleason:Our panelists this week will include Eric Snodgrass from Nutrien Ag Solutions, Joe Jansen from the University of Illinois, Agricultural Economist and Dave Chatterton of Strategic Farm Marketing should be a great program. Again, that'll be up online this evening after 06:00. You can hear it in its entirety tomorrow here on our home station and many of these radio stations will also carry it over the weekend. Thanks for being with us here on the closing market report. Our theme music is written, performed, and produced by Logan County, Illinois Farmer Tim Gleason.
Todd Gleason:I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason, and have a good day. Doctor. JACKSON:
