May 07 | Closing Market Report
From the land grant university at Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report. It is the May 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson.
Todd Gleason:He's at TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com out of Champaign, Illinois. And then a bit later in the program, we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast. Drew Lerner will help us take an in-depth look at the Northern Plains, the Northwestern Corn Belt, the Southern Plains across through the Eastern Corn Belt, and into China where they have had some pretty dry conditions over the last several weeks. We'll do all of that right here on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media.
Todd Gleason:It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.0rg. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. July corn for the day settled at $4.49 and a quarter. It was down 6 and a quarter. September at $4.29 and a half, 3 quarters of a cent lower, and December at $4.40 and 3 quarters down a half.
Todd Gleason:July soybeans, two lower at $10.39 and a quarter. August '10 '30 '5 and a half down a quarter. And new crop November up two and three quarters. It settled at $10.22 a bushel for the soybeans. Bean meal up $2 for the day.
Todd Gleason:The bean oil a dollar and 2¢ lower. Weed futures for the soft red July down opinion three quarters at $5.34 and a quarter and the hard red July at $5.29 and a half, 8 and a half cents lower on the afternoon. Live cattle futures down a dollar 15, settled $2.12 52 and a half, feeders at $2.98 $60.60 cents lower, and lean hogs down 25¢ at $97.32 and a half cents. Crude oil at $57.99 a barrel finished a dollar and 10¢ lower. Greg Johnson from TGM, that's totalgrainmarketing.com now joins us to discuss the market place.
Todd Gleason:Hi, Greg. Thank you much. It's been a busy week already. It's only Wednesday, just three days into the trading week. I guess we're halfway through.
Todd Gleason:So that is the good news. Lots of information coming out of DC related to trade. The marketplace has been watching that and what's happening with China and other things. I think it was China and the potential to lower the current tariffs in the Geneva talks this weekend that pushed soybeans higher, but they weren't able to hold those gains at least early in the session. What'd you think about the trade?
Greg Johnson:Yeah. I I think we're trying to grasp and read tea leaves at this point. We we really don't know how those talks are going to, fare. I think I'm looking at it as this is day number one or this the this weekend will be the first of several talks that it will take, before anything, eventually would get worked out. Maybe they can get the tariffs lowered from 125145% down to 50%, let's say.
Greg Johnson:They may be able to lower them, but we're still looking at tariffs and that, means, higher input import costs for for goods coming in from China. So, we've kind of seen that, effect already, starting. So I don't think that that's gonna be resolved anytime soon. I think, you know, it it could take weeks, if not months. It's it's not gonna be anything that we can, you know, hold our hat on and hope for, an announcement next week.
Greg Johnson:So, you know, we have to have those talks. We have to start somewhere, but think it's gonna be a long process. So as far as news out of The US and China, I guess I'm not looking for, anything, to come out of those, immediately. Maybe, some other countries, there are some rumors that The US and The UK are very close to maybe announcing some kind of a deal, either over the weekend or first part of next week. And then, Trump says that we've got 15 or 16 other countries that we are close, to working out a deal.
Greg Johnson:I don't know how close is close, but I think China will probably be the last country that, we get something worked out with. I think Trump really does wanna get, deals worked out with other countries, and then, I think he can feel like he's bargaining in from a position of strength.
Todd Gleason:Yeah. So it was interesting. And those who were listening yesterday heard from the Oval Office meeting that the president had with the new prime minister of Canada, the mister Trump talking about trade and saying twice in a one minute period that not necessarily they would have signed trade deals. I didn't know exactly what that meant. And that they would offer them a price, whatever that happened to be.
Todd Gleason:I assume that was a tariff rate, and they could take it or leave it. I I don't know how all that'll work out. It'll be interesting to watch that. Also, the NAFB or National Association of Farm Broadcasting was holding its Washington Watch, meeting with USDA yesterday in DC. Seth Meyers, who's the chief economist, sat down with them, and he did, tell them that the Monday USDA WASD, or World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate, would include the impact of tariffs.
Todd Gleason:USDA has, signaled that the last couple of months at the top of the WASDE report that whatever's in place at that time, and in this case, that would be a 25% tariff on soybeans being exported from The United States to China. For the new crop, what do you think that impact might look like?
Greg Johnson:Yeah. You know, I, you know, I think that could, result in lower exports, when that number comes out on Monday. You know, if you take it at face value, China is going to buy less beans with a 25% tariff than they would if there's no tariff. So, you know, part of me says that China still needs to buy beans from us, and maybe they can carve out an exemption for soybeans if they really want to. But at this point, they really haven't even started negotiating yet.
Greg Johnson:So if like I say, if you take it at face value, we may very well see soybean US soybean exports lowered for neck the next year, when that number comes out on Monday.
Todd Gleason:I know you probably have talked to a few farmers. When do they think in our area they'll be able to get back into the field?
Greg Johnson:I really thought maybe even yesterday afternoon, but, it it didn't dry out nearly as fast as what we thought. So I think this afternoon, we're gonna see people back out in the field. Certainly tomorrow, if we can miss that 30% chance of rain tomorrow, which I would guess most of us will miss that, it looks wide open through the week, for the rest of the week. So I think we'll see some pretty good planning progress made when the numbers come out on Monday. You have to keep in mind, I I still remind people, Illinois is behind, but that's because of Southern Illinois.
Greg Johnson:The northern two thirds of Illinois probably are going to be 75% done, when the numbers come out on Monday, but the southern third of Illinois may only be 25% done. So you'll get some kind of a number in the 55 to 60% range done for corn and beans in Illinois, but it's not uniformly 55%. It's 75, 80 percent in the North and central part of the state, and it's 25% in the southern part of the state.
Todd Gleason:I'm gonna get in trouble for saying this, but statistically, Southern Illinois used to it just didn't count very much, but that has changed. It really has for both corn and soybeans as they moved away from, wheat and other things in that area. So now they do count, but still a much smaller area geographically, and crop size down there. So it'll be interesting to see how those numbers all tally and come out on Monday as well. That'll be at 03:00 in the afternoon.
Todd Gleason:The world ag supply and demand estimates, of course, are at 11AM. They will also include numbers on the world side. Anything there that you'll be watching?
Greg Johnson:Not really. I I think the crop in in South America has gotten by the weather concerns. So it wouldn't surprise me if we actually raised the, Brazilian corn and soybean crop a little bit, maybe even the Argentine crop a little bit, which would contribute to some higher world numbers and maybe see the ending stocks number in the world increase just slightly. I'm not sure that's a big market mover, but, some traders were hoping or thinking that we could have a, you know, a dry scare down in, in Brazil with the safrinha crop, the double crop corn. That does not look to be the case.
Greg Johnson:So I think if I think we've dodged the bullet down there. I think we're looking at a average to above average crop down there, and, that, probably isn't, gonna give us any any bullish news, on Monday from from the world perspective.
Todd Gleason:In old crop corn, we're now looking at our fourth weekly loss if it continues to move lower or stay, yeah, where it is or, 20 down where it is now, and it'd have to get rally 27 or 20¢, I think, to to be, an up week. We're down in that $4.50 level. That's the support level. You've talked about that just a bit. How important is it for it to hold?
Greg Johnson:Obviously, if you take that out, it's negative from a chart point of view. But in another couple of weeks, we'll be in that, seasonal time frame where we'll start trying to look ahead two to three weeks into the pollination, timeframe. But you're right. May corn has hit, $4.42, 2 times, already before, so far this year. That's support at $4.42, and today, we're kind of in that $4.45 range.
Greg Johnson:So we're very close. We're sitting on the on the lows. And, and quite frankly, there's good reason to think so. I mean, we we are getting crops planted. The weather forecast looks good.
Greg Johnson:A lot of uncertainty about the trade and the tariffs. So, you know, I I it's just the wrong time of year for corn to rally. It's not surprising that we're sitting where we are, but we still have the whole pollination weather timeframe to get through. So before you know it, in two to three weeks, it'll be that time, and then we'll start worrying about weather. And if you look at weather maps, this dry weather, even here in in Central And Northern Illinois, we're below normal rainfall since the first of the year, every month, January, February, March, April, those four months.
Greg Johnson:We only had three inches of rain here in Champaign for the month of April. We normally get four, so not a not a major impactor, but it is still continuing that trend where we are dry. And, you know, if we have to be dry, we'd rather be dry in April and May, but, we definitely will need some rain in July and August, and the jury's still out on that. So I could I still think there's a story in corn, but it's gonna take a weather problem or a weather scare, weather concern to get that, to get the market rallying, and that's just not gonna happen here in the May. So I think we're fairly priced, but I remind people that we've still got, another three, four months before we know exactly what we're gonna have.
Todd Gleason:You, as a note, referencing the May contract in April, I'm referencing the July contract in April. Is there a story that we need to tell in soybeans?
Greg Johnson:In soybeans, well, we're hoping for a government mandate, on the higher renewed, on the bio renewable biodiesel fuel that, would be friendly. And, another government related thing would be a deal between The U. S. And China. So it's, it's kind of government related and, the government moves ever so slowly.
Greg Johnson:So the latest rumor we've heard is that there will be an announcement on the new renewable biodiesel fuel mandate within the next two weeks, but we've heard that before. So we're still waiting on that. You know, will they raise, you know, how much will they raise it? Will they raise it to 5,250,000,000 gallons or will it be something just a little bit higher than the previous or the current 3.5? So, you know, a lot of lot of unknowns, and we're talking about the government.
Greg Johnson:So, when they say two weeks, it might be two weeks. It might be two months. It might be longer. Who knows? But, those are the things that might help the soybean market out.
Greg Johnson:Trade deal with China or some de escalation of, tensions, and then this, mandate on the renewable biodiesel would help the soybeans out.
Todd Gleason:Thank you very much. I appreciate it, Greg.
Greg Johnson:Hey. Thank you, Todd.
Todd Gleason:Greg Johnson is with TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com. You're listening to the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It's public radio for the farming world. Thank you all for making donations last week during our spring fun drive.
Todd Gleason:It makes a really big difference both to the radio stations and to extension. Again, thank you if you've made a donation. If you've not yet, you still always can. There is a donate button at the top of the page at willag.org. That's willag.0rg.
Todd Gleason:The theme music for the closing market report is written, performed, produced in courtesy of Logan County, Illinois Farmer, Tim Gleason. Our thanks go to him as well. On this Wednesday, let's turn our attention to the growing regions across the planet and what the weather forecast looks like, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. Drew Lerner is here. He's with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City.
Todd Gleason:Planting has happening across the whole of the Midwest and other parts, of course, of the Northern Hemisphere. Let's begin here in The United States. I see there might be, some warmer temperatures, particularly in the Northwestern part of the Corn Belt, into the Dakotas, parts of Minnesota. What are you watching closely?
Drew Lerner:Yeah. Absolutely. Even in Canada, we saw some temperatures, within the past week in the eighties. In fact, it got to 90 degrees, come to think of it, in two spots in Eastern Saskatchewan and West Central Manitoba. I think that occurred on Sunday, actually.
Drew Lerner:And we're going to go back into that again, not only there and more widespread this time around, but also in the Northern Plains and a part of the Upper Midwest. The warmest temperatures will kick in Sunday through probably Tuesday at least. And, we'll see afternoon highs widespread eighties across all of that region, and there will be lower nineties coming up with that as well. There'll be a wind that's going to blow. It'll be a low humidity wind as well.
Drew Lerner:So drying wind will lose a lot of moisture during that time period. Farmers are going full tilt boogie though in many locations right now, putting seed in the ground. A lot of them have the notion that it's going to rain after we're done with this period of hotter and drier weather. And so they're trying to get ahead of the curve a little bit, but they're also wanting that moisture to hit the seed that's in the ground. So it's not a bad scenario.
Drew Lerner:The big question is, will we really get all the rain that's advertised? The models are still playing around with this. And I think over the next couple of days, we'll see some changes take place to the forecast. It looks to me like we're going to have some holes in the Upper Midwest that don't get that much rain. So all this moisture would likely hold off until at least the middle to latter part of next week anyway.
Drew Lerner:So we've got a full week of drying ahead of us. But outside of the pockets of dry weather, we'll see other areas get some timely rain. It'll be really good for recently planted crops and for putting a little moisture back into the top soil for future planting. I'm just not convinced that we're going to see huge volumes of moisture in all these areas. I think some folks are going to do all right.
Drew Lerner:And probably Canada may do better than some areas in the Eastern parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. It's not a terrible outlook and I don't want to be misread here. I'm just a little bit concerned that maybe the moisture is not going to be quite as generalized as advertised in the model data. But nonetheless, it's a pretty good scenario. A lot of field work occurring right now.
Drew Lerner:Even the Lower Midwest will go through a period of several days of drying. And then we're going to see a little upper level low move across that area beginning late in the weekend and continuing into early next week, scattering some showers there. And that too will help, with the planting moisture and the emergence situation.
Todd Gleason:So am I right that we're bisecting the Corn Belt kind of, on a southwest to northeast line, and that parts of Missouri, Illinois, I suppose Michigan, and to the east are in better condition than, relatively speaking, parts to the west of there?
Drew Lerner:Yeah. I think that's probably right. The further Northwest you travel, the the drier it does become and will continue to become as we go forward through this first week. There won't be much heat in the Southeastern Midwest, so the lower eastern areas will probably have more seasonable temperatures, and they will see a little bit more moisture after a few days of drying. Definitely a different world between the two places.
Drew Lerner:We're hoping, though, that we can fill the gap a little bit in some of the Northwest, but that's that's where my argument steps in.
Todd Gleason:In in that Northwestern part, if they don't fill the gap, how dry is it underneath, and does it create a problem?
Drew Lerner:You know, it's not terribly dry underneath, but it is dry enough that if we miss a good rain opportunity and we go back into a second week of dry and warm conditions, it wouldn't take too long for those concerns to begin to fester, especially as we go deeper into May and into early June when the normal temperatures are more consistently warm and we have the potential of getting a little further behind the eight ball. But, you know, we get some really good rain sometimes in the May and June. And so I don't think we should get too far ahead of ourselves making a bigger issue out of this than what is there already. But I get where you're going. And, yeah, I think we need to make sure that we do fill those gaps in the rain at some point in the latter part of this month.
Drew Lerner:And I think we have a fair chance of doing that, but I also believe that there will be pockets of dryness that will stay with us into June in parts of the Upper Midwest. I doubt it'll be a broad based, you know, huge droughty area or anything quite like that, but I think we're gonna have some places that are gonna need some definite improvement in rainfall.
Todd Gleason:Over the weekend, and over the last couple of days, big rainfalls across Texas, the Delta Region into the Northeast. What do the Southern Plains look like in general?
Drew Lerner:Yeah. You know, the biggest problem we have there is in Oklahoma. It's where the rains have been most consistently, above normal, I suppose. I think the last month was pretty close to the wettest on record in several areas in Oklahoma. And, we did get some more rain there earlier this week.
Drew Lerner:And so it is quite wet. A little concerned about wet weather disease for some of the wheat crop there. But it does look like we're going to go through a period of at least a week of drying here beginning probably Friday and, going on through a fair amount of next week. And so if that occurs, it will be hugely beneficial and may put an end to some of that concern. So for now, I'm not, you know, overly concerned about the situation, but, you know, hard red winter wheat country just hasn't had a very good year this year.
Drew Lerner:And every time you turn around, there's something else hitting the crop in a negative way. Most of Texas is doing, not too bad right now. There's been a lot of focus of attention on cotton and sorghum areas in West Texas, and they finally got a good drink of water this week. That's going to help them. Also some of their corn planting area there, they have a better outlook than they had a week and a half or so ago.
Drew Lerner:And they will get some more rain, but not for another ten days or so.
Todd Gleason:You told us last week, I believe, that in China above the Yangtze River, the northern two thirds of that nation, It particularly in the growing regions for corn, soybeans as well, that they had some issues related to dry conditions. Do those continue?
Drew Lerner:Yes. Since we talked last week, the the drought between the Yellow And Yangtze Rivers, kind of East Central China, has intensified. That's coming from the Chinese Meteorological Agency and there has been virtually no rain there. We did have an extreme temperature over this past weekend reaching to 104 degrees in that area. They've cooled off since then, but there's a heat wave that's advertised to kick in late this weekend through much of next week, and that will push their temperatures into the nineties and possibly over 100 degrees for multiple days.
Drew Lerner:And there's not much rain in the pipeline during that time period for sure. There's an opportunity for some showers shortly after that period, and it'll be welcomed, but it's not a good general soaking. And so we're still looking for better rains in that area to improve the outlook for emergence and establishment of summer crops. Now the winter wheat is also produced in that region and the wheat crop, I know the marketplace got a little excited about wheat production in China earlier this week. And I think that that does need to be looked at, we always have to keep in mind that they irrigate a large part of that wheat crop.
Drew Lerner:And it's pretty hard to cause a real disaster there. But nonetheless, it's been below normal precipitation and I should probably say well below normal precipitation over the past few months. And, they don't get a lot of rain in in March and April, but it should be rainy in May. And so there is potential that their wheat will be a little bit smaller this year.
Todd Gleason:Hey. Thanks much. I appreciate it.
Drew Lerner:Yep. Have a great day.
Todd Gleason:You too. That's Drew Lorner. He is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Joined us on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report. Came to you from Illinois Public Media.
Todd Gleason:It's public radio for the farming world online on demand whenever you'd like to listen to us at willag.org. That's willag.0rg. I'm the Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.
