May 06 | Closing Market Report
From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market reported as the May 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Naomi Bloem. She's at totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin.
Todd Gleason:We'll get an update of crop conditions across the states of Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa along with Minnesota from the statisticians in those regions. And then we'll hear from Joe Jensen, agricultural economist at the University of Illinois about fringe acres and the impact they may or more likely may not have on corn yield. And then as we close out our time together, we'll take a look at the weather forecast too. We'll do that with Donde at day weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming all on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online, on demand, whenever you'd like to hear us.
Todd Gleason:Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. July corn in Chicago today settled at $4.55 and a half cents. That was a penny and a quarter higher. September down 2 and a half cents at $4.30 and a quarter, and December futures $4.41 and a quarter, a penny and three quarters lower. July soybeans at $10.41 and a quarter, down four and a quarter, August 4 and a half lower, and the November down three.
Todd Gleason:They settled at $10.19 and a quarter cents for the soybeans in the new crop. Bean meal down $2.50. Bean oil 38¢ lower. July soft red winter wheat, the harvest month at $5.36, up four and three quarters, and the hard red July at $5.38, up 5 and a quarter cents. Here to talk about those numbers and much more is Naomi Bloom.
Todd Gleason:She's at TotalFarmMarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin. Good afternoon to you, Naomi. Thank you for being with us.
Naomi Blohm:Yeah. Thank you for having me.
Todd Gleason:Where would you like to start today? I hear there's some good news on the ethanol front.
Naomi Blohm:Yes. So from DTN, we got a report that the US Census Bureau was reporting about US exports of goods and services today. DTN went on to say that from that news, the USDA said US exports of ethanol totaled 195,800,000 gallons in March for export. That number was up from a 38,750,000 in February. And, actually, in 2025 so far, ethanol exports are running 19% ahead of 2024.
Naomi Blohm:Top buyers include Canada and The United Kingdom and India. So there was some good news there today. I think it was enough to help the corn market come back a little bit. We are oversold on all of those daily charts and July corn, December corn testing the uptrend line. And for the July contract, that uptrend line has been established since late August of twenty twenty four.
Naomi Blohm:So this is a big, important trend line to hold and maintain, And so now we're starting to, I think, trade the reality that we know it's a fast planting pace out there for corn, but I think we have a whole lot of spring and summer weather to get through. We're oversold at this time on charts, and the market today, again, really defending that uptrend line.
Todd Gleason:Well, a couple of things I wanna come back to, the planting pace in just a moment. But when you think about this ethanol set of sales in March, is that front loading in front of the proposed tariffs, or is it actual, in an actual increase in consumption?
Naomi Blohm:You know, I'm gonna say both because when I look at who the buyers were so Canada front loading, probably so. But with with The UK, I think that their demand in general has been increasing, and I love that India is buying from Us. India, I think, has our potential to be a great trade partner, and so they, I think, are ranked twelfth in terms of what they buy from US agricultural products in the world, but they just have some more, I think it's a new market for us. So love, again, to see that, we are sending ethanol to India. And we'll find out, of course, as we go along here in the coming weeks if this is gonna be a sustained pace of ethanol that's being exported, or to your point, if some of that was just trying to do front loading ahead of the tariff.
Todd Gleason:So then turn your attention to the crop progress report, nationally on pace, with the five year average at 40% for corn planting, 39% is the five year average. However, Iowa and Illinois were below their five year average. Iowa, setting at 49%, not by much down there at 53 normally. Illinois off, substantially, 32%. That's the second largest corn producing state in the nation.
Todd Gleason:44% is the rolling five year average. Will that catch up with the marketplace at some point? Or do you think that this week that farmers in both of those states, because of the good weather, will just turn the planters on and make up the difference?
Naomi Blohm:Well, I do feel like with this week of better weather that Illinois will have an opportunity to catch up, but it had been so soggy there And some parts of Central And Southern Illinois where it had been too wet had to do some replanting along with Western Kentucky. So I think that they will catch up, but now it makes me think of a lot of that Illinois crop gonna be pollinating now in the nastiest portion of summer and summer heat, whereas a lot of times they can skirt through it because they're able to plant early. So now we'll have some weather watching in Illinois, a little bit later than normal because of the slower planting pace, but we'll see how much they can get done this week.
Todd Gleason:Just a minute left. Look forward to next Monday's world ag supply and demand estimates report for me. What numbers will you be watching most closely?
Naomi Blohm:Keeping an eye, of course, on ending stocks for old crop for corn, and we already know, and I think the market's pricing in not only the bigger acres, but a bigger yield number for corn for new crops. So that's priced in. But one thing you really wanna be aware of is that looking back at the last fifteen years, when we are oversold, technically speaking, going into that report, that May WASDE report, a lot of times the market will find a low on that report day or within a week after and then start to rally higher. The opposite would be true when we're overbought heading into that report, then a lot of times we get an early summer high. So guess what?
Naomi Blohm:We are oversold on these grain markets heading into Monday's WASDE report. We are pricing in negative news in terms of higher yield. So we got a lot of that priced into the market already, and we have zero weather premium in the market right now at this point in time. So I think that, hopefully, here, the worst is gonna be behind us, but we'll have to keep an eye on trade deals, of course. That'll be the the thing to be watching as the week progresses as well.
Todd Gleason:Hey. Thanks, Naomi. Naomi Bloom is with Total Farm Marketing. One quick news item for the day. The Oval Office meeting between president Trump and Mark Kearney, the newly elected prime minister of Canada, proved informational today as it relates to a couple of items.
Todd Gleason:The president suggesting a big news item would be coming out of his office on Thursday or Friday of this week or possibly as late as Monday and then quickly transition directly to trade.
Donald Trump:We also have a situation because everyone says, when? When? When are you gonna sign deals? We don't have to sign deals. We could sign 25 deals right now, Howard, if we wanted.
Donald Trump:We don't have to sign deal. They have to sign deals with us. They want a piece of our market. We don't want a piece of their market. We don't care about their market.
Donald Trump:They want a piece of our market. So we can just sit down, and I'll do this at some point over the next two weeks. And I'll sit with Howard and Scott and with with our great vice president who has done a really good job. We have some good news to report on a lot of fronts. But JD will be there and Marco, and we're gonna sit down and we're gonna put very fair numbers down, and we're gonna say, here's what this country, what we want, and congratulations, we have a deal.
Donald Trump:And they'll either say, great, and they'll start shopping, or they'll say, not good. We're not gonna do it. And I said, that's okay. You don't have to shop. Now we may think, well, they have a right.
Donald Trump:You know, they're that maybe we were a little bit wrong, so we'll adjust it. And then you people will say, oh, it's so chaotic. No. We're flexible. But we'll sit down, and we'll, at some point some in some cases, we'll sign some deals.
Donald Trump:It's much less important than what I'm talking about. For the most part, we're just gonna put down a number and say this is what you're gonna pay to shop.
Todd Gleason:This is new information to this point. The president and the Trump administration across the board have said there will be trade deals negotiated. Mister Trump backing away from that in the Oval Office earlier today. Yesterday afternoon, the United States Department of Agriculture released the weekly crop progress report. It shows 40% of the corn has been planted around the nation.
Todd Gleason:The rolling five year average is 39%. Eleven % of the crop is emerged. 9% is the five year average. 30% of the soybeans have been sown. 23% the five year average and 7% of that crop has emerged.
Todd Gleason:5% is the rolling five year average. About 39% of the winter wheat has headed across the nation. That's ahead of the thirty three percent five year average and it's said to be in 44% good and 7% excellent condition. Those numbers, relatively speaking, are up from last week when it was in 40% good and 9% excellent condition. Now here are the state statisticians with updates from their regions.
Iowa NASS:This is Rebecca Alter, agricultural statistician for the USDA NASS Iowa field office. While some producers were able to get into their fields, precipitation continued to delay planting in many parts of the state. Topsoil moisture condition rated 3% very short, 9% short, 76% adequate and 12% surplus. Corn planted reached 49%, three days ahead of last year, but two days behind the five year average. Corn emerged reached 10%, two days ahead of last year's pace and three days ahead of normal.
Iowa NASS:38% of the expected soybean crop has been planted, one week ahead of last year and two days ahead of the five year average. Soybeans emerged reached 5%. Pasture condition rated 60% good to excellent. No unusual conditions reported for livestock, although some feedlots remained muddy. And that's this week's report of crop progress and conditions across the state of Iowa.
Iowa NASS:For the USDA NASS Upper Midwest Regional Field Office, this is Rebecca Alter.
Illinois NASS:Hello everyone. This is Brad Summa, director of the USDA NASS Heartland Region. There were two point seven days suitable for fieldwork in the week ending May 4. Statewide, the average temperature was 59.2 degrees, which was 2.6 degrees above normal. Precipitation averaged 1.29 inches, which was point three three inches above normal.
Illinois NASS:Topsoil moisture supply is now rated at 1% very short, 9% short, 53% adequate, and 37% surplus. Corn planted has now reached 32% compared to the five year average of 44, and the corn emerged has reached 8% compared to the five year average of 11. Soybeans planted has reached 33% compared to the five year average of 34, soybeans emerged has now reached 10% compared to the five year average of seven. Winter wheat headed reached 23% compared to the five year average of 31, and the winter wheat condition was rated 1% very poor, 4% poor, 34% fair, 50% good, and 11% excellent. For the Illinois cattlemen, the pasture conditions was rated 2% very poor, 5% poor, 27% fair, 45% good, and 21% excellent.
Illinois NASS:Again, this is Brad Summa, director of the USDA NAS Heartland region serving the farmers and ranchers in Missouri and Illinois. Have a great week, everyone.
Indiana NASS:This is Nathaniel Wernske with USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. This week, Indiana topsoil moisture rated 93% adequate to surplus for the week ending May 4. Subsoil moisture 84% adequate to surplus. Days suitable for fieldwork were three point eight days. Corn planting was 26% close to the five year average.
Indiana NASS:Corn emerged was 6%. Soybean crop planted was 25%, five percentage points ahead of the five year average. Soybean emerged was 2%. Winter wheat jointed was at 64%, twelve percentage points behind last year and slightly behind the five year average. Winter wheat headed was at 12%, nine percentage points behind last year and slightly behind the five year average.
Indiana NASS:The crop rating increased to 69% good to excellent. Pasture and range conditions rated 71% good to excellent. And that's this week's report of crop progress and conditions across the state of Indiana. I'm Nathaniel Wernski for USDA NASS.
Todd Gleason:One other state to check-in on before we finish up our review of crop progress across the Midwest with the statisticians. Minnesota farmers averaged three point six days suitable for field work in this past week. Topsoil moisture supplies were rated 3% very short, 14% short, 75% adequate, and 8% surplus. Corn planting in Minnesota was 44% complete putting planting progress two days ahead of 2024. Soybeans were 22% planted reaching that level five days earlier than a year ago.
Todd Gleason:Both corn and soybeans were a day ahead of the five year average. Pasture conditions in Minnesota rated two percent very poor, 5% poor, 43% fair, and 43% good, but just 7% in excellent condition. The theme music for the closing market report is written, performed, produced in courtesy of Logan County, Illinois Farmer Tim Gleason. Now something just a little bit different. Joe Jansen, agricultural economist on the Urbana Champaign campus of the U of I has taken to YouTube with the five minute farm docs to explain fringe acres and how they impact yield.
Todd Gleason:I think you'll find his telling interesting.
Joe Janzen:I'm University of Illinois agricultural economist Joe Janzen. This is a five minute farm doc. Today, we're tackling a hot topic in the corn market. Can we really have both massive planted acres and record yields this year? There's a common belief that when farmers plant more corn, they have to use lower quality fringe acres that drag down the national yield average.
Joe Janzen:But is that actually true? Let's dive into the data and find out. So here's the situation. Corn prices have been getting a boost lately because old crop ending stocks are tightening up. But looking ahead, the USDA confirmed what everyone was thinking in March.
Joe Janzen:They're expecting farmers to plant about 95,300,000 acres of corn this year, and some analysts think the number could go even higher when the next report comes out in June. On top of that, USDA is predicting a national yield of 181 bushels per acre, which would be almost two bushels higher than last year's record. But wait. Can we really have both? Does planting more acres mean using lower quality land that produces less corn?
Joe Janzen:Well, let's talk about what we mean by fringe acres. When farmers plant more corn than usual, they have two options. Either switch acres from other crops like soybeans on land with the same yield potential as is typical for corn or plant corn on land that wouldn't typically grow corn because it yields less than average. These lower yielding lands are what we call fringe or marginal acres. The conventional wisdom says more fringe acres should lead to lower national average yields.
Joe Janzen:But what does the data actually show? Well, I analyzed corn acreage over the last hundred years, and it's quite a journey. Identifying fringe acres is a little bit difficult because where and what constitutes the fringe has changed over time. We actually used to plant over a hundred million acres of corn in The United States before the nineteen thirties. Acreage fell until about 1970, stabilized for a couple of decades, and then jumped sharply in 02/2007 when the ethanol mandate kicked in.
Joe Janzen:Since 02/2007, we've been averaging about 91,000,000 acres of corn in The United States with a slight upward trend. This means this year's projected 95,300,000 acres are about 3,800,000 above what we'd expect from trend. That's a lot of potential fringe acres. Even in years when corn acreage was similar to what we're expecting in 2025, yields have been both above and below trend. The data doesn't support the idea that more acres automatically means lower yields.
Joe Janzen:But wait. What about regional differences? Doesn't it matter where the corn is planted? Well, I looked at Great Plains states from North Dakota down to Texas, typically considered the fringe, where yields run 20 to 40 bushels per acre below the national average. Corn acreage in these states has been steadily increasing by about 400,000 acres per year since 1990.
Joe Janzen:Meanwhile, traditional acres in the traditional corn belt have stayed comparatively flat. Even with the shift towards more acreage in traditionally lower yielding regions, national yields have continued their upward trend. When I specifically analyze whether above trend acreage in the Lower Great Plains correlates with lower national yield, I again found basically no relationship. Less than 1% of the yield variation can be explained by Great Plains acreage shifts. So what's the takeaway here?
Joe Janzen:Well, weather is still king when it comes to yield. Those year to year swings in yield have much more to do with growing season conditions than with how many acres get planted and where. That means that USDA's trend line yield estimate of 181 bushels per acre is still perfectly reasonable even with big planted acreage. Assuming normal weather, we're likely looking at corn inventories climbing back above 2,000,000,000 bushels by the end of the 2526 marketing year. Without a major surge in demand, which seems unlikely in the current economic environment, this level of corn availability points to prices closer to long term averages.
Joe Janzen:Current new crop futures are trading around $4.50 a bushel, which is actually slightly above that long run average. So there you have it. The data show that big acreage and big yields can absolutely go together. The conventional wisdom about fringe acres dragging down yields doesn't hold up when we look at historical evidence from national yield data. If you have found this analysis helpful, check out the full article on PharmDoc Daily and subscribe to the PharmDoc YouTube channel for more data driven agricultural market insights. This has been a five minute PharmDoc. I'm the University of Illinois' Joe Janzen.
Todd Gleason:Again, if you'd like to learn more from the PharmDoc team through the five minute PharmDoc programs, and there are several new ones posted there, it's easy enough to find them on YouTube. You can go to YouTube.com/at, that's the at sign, farmdoc. That's youtube.com/@farmdoc. Don Day now joins us from Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming to talk about the forecast for the growing regions of The United States. Hi, Don.
Todd Gleason:Thank you for being with us. It appears after what was a wet weekend here all the way through yesterday in my part of the world, and I think to the south and east of here that farmers at some time this week will be able to get back into the field. Talk a little bit about that and then work your way back to the Western Corn Belt and tell me about conditions there too.
Don Day:Yeah. We've been in a little bit of a unique weather pattern here for the last week. We we call it an omega block where you get a an area of low pressure that will set up in one part of the country, have a big high pressure to the west of it, and then to the west, that high pressure is another low pressure. And you get a pattern like this because it looks like the Greek sign omega, the way the jet stream goes up and down, it's a blocking pattern. So what happens is you kinda get stuck.
Don Day:You'll get a one pattern that could be very, very stubborn, and certainly the pattern was stubborn this past weekend bringing the wet weather into a lot of the Central And Eastern Corn Belt. That block is gonna slowly break down here over the next couple of days. And what we'll see now is a trend, especially in the Northern Northwest Corn Belt, Central Corn Belt areas, a drier trend. We're still gonna have rain, quite a bit of it, over the Delta, over the South Central Florida. We'll be picking up some beneficial rain.
Don Day:A little bit of that rain could get into the Far Eastern Corn Belt, but nothing like what we've seen here over the last week or so. So there's gonna be some opportunities for drying conditions, especially the central and Northwest areas of the Corn Belt.
Todd Gleason:And then, in those western parts of the Corn Belt, do you have concern at all that dry conditions will return there? I don't know how much rainfall and subsoil moisture levels they have at this point, as we make our way through the month of May and into June.
Don Day:Yeah. I certainly am concerned. When we take a look at Nebraska, we take a look at central, northern, and western areas of Iowa, up into Minnesota and Wisconsin, this blocking pattern we've been in has directing is directing storms away from there. And we see another pattern sort of similar to what we just saw might develop, let's say ten days from now. So the trajectory of weather systems is going to stay away from that Northwest Corn Belt.
Don Day:In this time of year, they expect to get occasionally wet. So at least for the next seven to ten days, that Northwest Corn Belt is not gonna be getting much in the way of any significant rain.
Todd Gleason:Thank you much. I appreciate it, Don.
Don Day:Thank you.
Todd Gleason:Don Deus with day weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming joined us on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report that came to you from Illinois. Public media, it is public radio for the farming world online on demand at WILLAG.ORG. I'm Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.
