Jun 23 | Closing Market Report
From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market reported as the June 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Kurt Kimmel. He's agmarket dot net out of Normal, Illinois. I'll bring you up to speed on the agricultural news for the day.
Todd Gleason:We have some information about immigration, WOTUS, and so much more, along with some discussion as it's related to soybean exports to China in that segment. And then we'll turn our attention to an insect pest in corn that you may see but probably won't be able to do anything about it. Still, it's important to keep an eye out for grape colaspus, says University of Illinois Extension field crops entomologist Nick Seiderm. And as we close out our time together, we'll take a look at the weather forecast. It should remain hot this week and probably next week.
Todd Gleason:Though there's likely to be rainfall across the Corn Belt, it is Europe that is suffering at this point. We'll ask Mark Russo of Everstream Analytics to bring us up to speed on this Monday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Medium. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org. Remember, we need to have everything in the bank by the time we get to the end of this month for use next year, fiscal year, starting on July 1. You can help us out right now.
Todd Gleason:Make a donation at willag.org or willgive.org. In the first place, look at the top of the page and the donate button. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. July corn for the day at $4.19 and a quarter finished at 9 and a half cents lower. December at $4.33 and three quarters down 7 and a half.
Todd Gleason:July beans 9 and a quarter lower at $10.58 and 3 quarters. In November, ten forty six and three quarters, down 14¢ for the day. Bean meal, off a dollar 70. Settlement price there, $282.40. The bean oil at $53.24, down a dollar 23.
Todd Gleason:And wheat futures in the July, that's the soft red down 15¢. Settlement price at $5.52 and 3 quarters. The hard red July at $5.50, down 13 and a quarter cents. Live cattle futures, 45¢ lower at $2.00 $9.37 and a half. Feeders at $3.00 $2.80, up 35¢, and lean hogs at a $113 and a nickel, 60¢ higher.
Todd Gleason:Crude oil at $68.36, down $5.54 for the day. Diesel fuel at 17¢ lower $2.33 and 3 tenths of a cent per gallon. Gasoline on the wholesale price, the RBOP at $2.19 and 2 tenths. That's about 11 and 8 tenths of a cent lower. S and P 500 up 44 points.
Todd Gleason:The Nasdaq 208 points higher, and the Dow up around 313 points. Here to discuss these numbers is Kurt Kimmel from agmarket.net. Hello, Kurt. Thank you for being with us. Given that Friday was not a holiday, it seemed like an awful lot happened over the weekend and still continues today.
Todd Gleason:Can you tell me what the market did in the overnight session, and then we can break out how things processed through the day today too.
Curt Kimmel:Yeah. What you think about, you know, does happen, and it did happen over the weekend. What I mean by that is basically there was some activity take place during the weekend when the markets were not trading, which kind of was in a good sense due to the fact that there have been some wild gyrations take place. But, yeah, just more unknown uncertainty throwing in. The significance of that probably sticks out like a sore thumb is the crude oil market.
Curt Kimmel:Know, the cash off exchange activity took place. When we came in Sunday evening, the crude was up sharply. Actually, today, right now, as we record this, crude oil is down $4.9 a barrel, so crude oil almost had a little over $9, trading range just trying to price in some uncertainty. Most have watched the news. That news is going to switch around quite a bit back and forth reading between the lines.
Curt Kimmel:As far as the grains go, Iran particularly imports about 8,500,000 metric tons of corn, 2,500,000 metric tons of wheat, just about 3,000,000 metric tons of soybeans, then plus there's urea, fertilizers and some other agricultural connected products that flow in and out of that region there. So it'll continue to be watched closely. But the idea of putting a little war premium in the marketplace Sunday evening, that gave way to lower trade here as we finished up today with some lower prices as we took some of that war premium back out, Todd.
Todd Gleason:Iran did retaliate today, and they fired missiles into Qatar bases US bases in Qatar and into Iraq both. We have heard from Qatar. Really haven't heard from Iraq or at the time you and I were recording, we had not. And the president has gone back into the situation room at points to talk about what, if anything, should be done. Much of the conversation that was being had on from the news sites was suggesting that because Iran was clear that they had fired the same number of missiles that The US had used in its Friday evening bombings of the nuclear sites across that nation.
Todd Gleason:It was viewed as a de escalation. The marketplace, as you suggested, particularly as it relates to oil, seems to have taken that awfully well. That means we're back to fundamentals, I suppose. It's hot here, but it's raining across the Midwest. What do we know about the corn crop in The United States?
Curt Kimmel:To the grain markets in particular here in The US, we'll see what this afternoon's crop conditions report. Even though we have some heat here for a few days, there's some moisture in the forecast and with the heat and the moisture, you know, is somewhat favorable. The biggest thing is the heat is welcomed, particularly in the southern third of Illinois and through Indiana. As long as there's not a whole lot more moisture, they're still struggling to plant the first time if not replant the second or third time. But the trade feels comfortable with production prospects.
Curt Kimmel:If we do have some type of weather scenario it's probably going be more the second half of the growing season versus the first half of the growing season that most we're looking for.
Todd Gleason:What did you make of the day trade for corn, particularly in the lead option July? New life of contract lows were made.
Curt Kimmel:Oh man, that's a sore subject. Yeah, we've got a grain stocks report coming up, imagine there's probably more grain stocks around. But if you go back, turn the clock back, if you look at the July futures, back when that was a new crop, when we first started trading the new crop contract, we had a little over 2,000,000,000 bushel carryout. The market was at five twenty. Now the carryout's down to lower 1,300,000,000 bushels, much much tighter but yet the corn market's a dollar lower.
Curt Kimmel:It's frustrating but kind of signals that there's enough corn here over the short term.
Todd Gleason:What do you see in the charts for the soybeans or what are you hearing from agmarket.net on that front?
Curt Kimmel:Well, we're basically back to where we were here back in May, not too bad, off the February highs. The market held in there fairly well, but the problem is Friday's price reaction is an outside down day, so therefore, technically, we're set up to go back and test these June lows. So it's a matter of up and down, up and down.
Todd Gleason:When do you think when you're, talking with producers who have old crop, both corn and or soybeans, more likely corn, that they need to sell that they should decide to throw the towel in?
Curt Kimmel:Yeah. That's been a common phone call here. Still have a little bit of inventory yet to move. We've been recommending to move that because we've replaced ownership with, some call options anywhere from, oh, 8¢ to 15¢ a bushel. So some would flare up the second half of the growing season.
Curt Kimmel:You can try to recoup, some upside potential that way. But hanging on to the cash grains can be kind of frustrating. The biggest thing on the cash grain side is watch your buyers. There could be some basis opportunities as we kinda wind down the market and you hear over the next month or two.
Todd Gleason:Hey. Thank you much. I appreciate it, Kurt.
Curt Kimmel:You bet. Take care.
Todd Gleason:You too. Kurt Kimmel is with agmarket.net. In today's agricultural news, we'll start with the big beautiful bill. Senate Republicans are racing against the clock as the senate continues to roll out its version of the reconciliation bill. There are some differences between the house and senate proposals on agriculture.
Todd Gleason:The main variations come down to changes in the tax provisions, but it's key to note proposed changes to the farm safety net are similar in both the house and senate versions. The house and senate will now need to work out their differences in the two versions of the big beautiful bill. President Trump said he wants to sign the legislation July 4, but many reports cast doubt congress can make that approaching deadline. Politico last week reported that the senate GOP's version of the bill is facing major headwinds when it returns to the house. We'll stay in Washington DC, but turn our attention to policy now.
Todd Gleason:Public listening sessions on the future of the waters of The US or VOTUS rule have wrapped up, and the Trump administration said it plans to have the rule completed by the end of the year. Throughout the sessions, there was a clear divide between what agriculture and industry groups and environmental groups are seeking in WOTUS, as ag rep said they wanted clearer definitions while environmental groups asked for no changes to the rule. DTN reports the continued back and forth of definitions and redefinitions from administration to administration in the past twenty years has led to what is currently a patchwork of differing versions of the VOTUS definition from state to state. We'll stay with domestic policies, but this time turn to immigration. Following a week of immigration whiplash, President Trump's border czar, Tom Holman, confirmed last week that immigration raids will continue in the agriculture and hospitality industries.
Todd Gleason:The Trump administration had said it was pausing some ice raids, and the president today even is suggesting that may still be the case. But Homan's comments reaffirmed that it is reversing course at least for the moment. Workers at places like farms, restaurants, and hotels will be targeted. And finally today, ag secretary Brooke Rollins says despite the trade uncertainty from the president's tariff impositions, USDA is working to boost US farm exports, especially for soybean. A recent visit to Italy brought this response from secretary Rollins when the top house ag democrat asked in an oversight hearing what Rollins was doing to boost soybean exports.
Brooke Rollins:We had great conversations specific to soy on how we get, which is the number one import, but not nearly enough, how we get more of that into Italy, into The EU, into Japan, into India.
Todd Gleason:Bought the ranking ag democrat, and Craig wanted to know about The US's biggest soybean market.
Angie Craig:China represents 50% of The US soybean market. Wouldn't it I'm not gonna ask, but I I believe it would have been a better strategy to go get these markets before you do an across the board trade war that decimates 50% of the market.
Brooke Rollins:President announced a deal with China, so that is being solved.
Todd Gleason:US and China have agreed to drop their reciprocal tariffs to 10% for ninety days while negotiating a broader trade deal during the pause. China earlier imposed 1015% duties on key US farm goods. And that's a look at today's agricultural news. Let's check now with Nick Cider. He's an extension field crops entomologist based here on the University of Illinois campus in Urbana Champaign.
Todd Gleason:Hello, Nick. Thank you for being with us. Let's get right to it. Are you hearing of any unusual past activity in fields this year?
Nick Seiter:I've received a a handful of reports and and had the opportunity to walk a few fields that have been impacted by grape colaspis. So grape colaspis is a beetle. It's in the leaf beetle family, and it's an insect pest that we see at irregular intervals, sorta every few years. The last time we had sort of outbreak levels of this insect was in 2018. And most commonly we see this injury in corn, corn grown following soybeans, so the adults will actually lay their eggs in soybean.
Nick Seiter:Those larvae will grow on those soybean roots a little bit in year one, but then they overwinter as a partially grown larva. The following springsummer they come back up the profile and feed on the roots of whatever to be in that field. And of course for us after a legume in Illinois, that legumes usually soybeans and the plant grown after it is usually corn. So it can damage a variety of different host plants, we most commonly see that injury in corn because of our, rotation system.
Todd Gleason:How is it that a farmer can recognize grape colaspis injury?
Nick Seiter:Often the first thing you're going to see if you have grape colaspis injury is nutrient deficiency symptoms, phosphorus and potassium. And that's because these plants that have had their roots fed on by these insects, they aren't doing a very good job of taking up those nutrients. As the healthy plants around the affected area begin to grow, often you'll see kind of some stunting of these affected plants and so often, you know, as you get a little bit further along, you'll get a better appreciation for the extent of that damage. In many cases, we see areas that are impacted sort of on the the tops of of hills and areas like that that are a little bit better drained. Very often, that's where we'll see this injury kind of the most pronounced.
Nick Seiter:And if you dig those affected plants up, the insect itself looks kinda like a tiny white grub. And they're not all that closely related to, Japanese beetles and other white grub species, but they do resemble them pretty closely, except they're they're much smaller. They're going to be, maybe a little smaller than a pea. So maybe about three sixteenths of an inch, something like that.
Todd Gleason:Do you have management recommendations for this pest?
Nick Seiter:We have a lot of unanswered questions on management because this insect is so sporadic. We don't have really the opportunity to get great chemical efficacy data on it for instance. We do see that the active ingredient in the the seed treatments does does kill it, but very often we'll see this injury in fields that have had a seed treatment applied. So it's a little unclear, you you know, what rate and what material would do maybe the best job on that. Of course, like most of these insects that feed on the roots early on, there's no rescue treatment.
Nick Seiter:Right? Once you by the time you've seen the injury, there's not a lot we can do about it. We probably have a lot we can learn about soil texture, field history, maybe nutrient management, how those factors affect this insect. But it's really been a struggle to learn very much about management management because they're so sporadic and because they occur at these really infrequent intervals. One of the things we'd like to understand a little bit better is sort of the combination of environmental conditions that leads to these outbreaks so that we can better predict them in the future and give farmers a heads up for when this is going to happen.
Todd Gleason:Nick Sider is an extension field crops entomologist from the Urbana Champaign campus of the University of Illinois. If you'd like to read more from the crop scientists here on campus, can always do that on our website at wilag.org, willag.org, or you can search out Crop Central and sign up for the weekly email from them. That includes an update of what's happening across the state related to crop conditions from the Extension Commercial Ag team. That's at Crop Central. Of course, you can always find that too on our website.
Todd Gleason:It is in the farm news section from the University of Illinois at willag.org. Let's check-in on the weather forecast with Mark Russo. He's at Everstream Analytics. Hi, Mark. Good Monday to you.
Todd Gleason:Thanks for being here. It's hot. The question is, will it stay hot across the Corn Belt, and more importantly, those chances of rainfall, are they going to actually come up with any valuable precipitation or is it just a little bit here and a little bit there?
Mark Russo:Well, Todd, looking ahead here for the Midwest Corn And Soybean Belt, From a temperature standpoint, yeah, this ridge of high pressure now over the Midwest is producing this pretty impressive heat for early in the season. Still is going to continue for a few more days. However, this ridge of high pressure, while it is strong, it is a mover. So it's going to not be becoming it's not going to become established over any one area. And because of it moving around, that will allow the Midwest to cool down at times, such as what we're going to see here.
Mark Russo:Not to like below normal levels, but just won't be as hot coming up later on this week and on into next week compared to what we're seeing right now. And then along with the cooler temperatures, that will also open the door for rain activity. In fact, the pattern will be quite active with frequent opportunities for rain. That's especially the case in the Western Midwest for this week where the highest rainfall totals and coverage will be.
Todd Gleason:So the Eastern Belt had been the wettest, and while that and, the, parts of Kentucky and Tennessee and down through the Delta Region, any changes for them?
Mark Russo:Yeah. They're again, with the rain activity, more favored west, the Eastern Belt will have a bit drier conditions. There'll be a little bit of rain around, but, actually, with the drier conditions, that will ease some of the excess wetness issues that have been an issue lately there.
Todd Gleason:Do things change next week across the Corn Belt?
Mark Russo:Yeah. Continue to see opportunities for rain. A little bit different distribution in into into the Midwest, a bit more focused with those rain south versus north. But, again, temperatures, not as hot as this week, but still running a little bit warmer than average.
Todd Gleason:Will this high, this ridge continue to move around, or will it become more stationary and an issue for parts of the Corn Belt?
Mark Russo:Yeah. Great question, Todd. The ridge here looks well, it's moving east and west really across much of the country. It's been that way over the past week, looks to stay that way going into and what looks to be at least through the July. And because of that, you're just not establishing any kind of heat, at least over the Midwest, any kind of extreme heat.
Mark Russo:But Eastern US is involved, the Western US is involved, and that's going to be the main item to watch as we move through July. But at least through the first ten days, we do not see any anchor down ridging and thus no significant heat stress that would negatively impact early pollination here in the Corn Belt.
Todd Gleason:We have talked about issues in Europe. Can you tell me what you've been watching?
Mark Russo:Yeah, that is an area where we are more concerned with summer crop development over the next several weeks. We've seen dryness expand across much of Europe, both Eastern And Western Europe, and they're also seeing significant heat, pretty similar to what we're seeing here in The US. So crop stress is increasing, soil moisture is decreasing, and as we move into the key month of July, that is where the lowest soil moisture and the highest crop stress will be, especially again for corn in Central And Southern Europe.
Todd Gleason:Thank you very much. I appreciate it.
Mark Russo:You're welcome, Todd.
Todd Gleason:Mark Russo is with Everstream Analytics joined us on this Monday edition of the closing market report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand anytime you'd like to listen to us at willag.org, willag.0rg. We're coming into the last seven days of our fiscal year. And for next year, we need to have all the money in the bank that we'll be using by the time we get to the end of the month. If you can help us out with a donation, that would be great.
Todd Gleason:Make sure that you tell the person you're talking to or that you write into the comments section in support of AG. You can make those donations at (217) 244-9455 or at willag.org. Look for the donation button at the top of the page. I'm University of Illinois Extinction's, Todd Gleason.
