Jun 18 | Closing Market Report
From the land grant university in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It is the June 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson from TGM. That's total grain marketing right here in Champaign County.
Todd Gleason:Teresa Steckler will join us from University of Illinois Extension to discuss the Asian longhorn tick, Tilaria and beef cattle herds in the state. This stick can cause a twenty to twenty five percent fatality rate in a herd and farmers will want to know how to protect their animals from the disease. And then as we close out our time together, we'll take a look at the weather forecast too. We'll do that with True Learner at World Weather Incorporated on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world.
Todd Gleason:Todd Gleason services are made available to by University of Illinois Extension. July corn for the day settled at $4.33 and a half up 2¢. September 5 at a quarter higher. It settled at $4.29 and December up 5 at a quarter as well to settle at $4.44. July soybeans at $10.74 and three quarters, three quarters higher.
Todd Gleason:August up a half at $10.76 and three quarters. New crop November at $10.68 and a quarter, a half cent higher. Bean meal futures 20¢ lower. The bean oil, 2¢ lower. And soft red winter wheat, up 25 and a quarter at $5.74 and a quarter for the day.
Todd Gleason:The hard red in the July finished at $5.71 and a quarter. It was up 23 today. Greg Johnson from TGM, that's Total Grain Marketing, an elevator that belongs to FS Gromar, now joins us. He is in Champaign County. Hello, Greg.
Todd Gleason:Thank you so much for being with us. I'd ask you if you're getting calls today about this rally in the corn market. Don't know whether that call was for to make a sale or not. It seems unlikely, but, you are getting calls. And I know farmers probably are really beginning to get a little worried about this marketplace as we've made it, oh, almost two thirds of the way through the month of June now.
Todd Gleason:What can you tell us as you see the marketplace today?
Greg Johnson:You're right. It's been extremely slow in the corn selling, the on the corn selling side. Farmers have done a little bit better job or maybe better, but had done more selling on soybeans, old crop soybeans and new crop soybeans on this rally. Even with the 6¢ rally today, July corn is basically 6¢ off of the lows. We've been, July corn's been as low as $4.30 and as high as $5.20, and today we're right around $4.36.
Greg Johnson:So yesterday, we were basically on the low. So the 6¢ rally sounds nice, and it is, but it's not enough to get farmers interested in selling anything. We've got the whole pollination growing season ahead of us. And even though things look good today, there's more rain in the forecast this week. So we're not looking for a big rally based on weather anytime soon, but we still have a ways to go.
Greg Johnson:And, the interesting part is that the old crop corn has really is what suffered. New crop corn, you know, we were sitting on our lows, but we haven't had the drop off in new crop corn prices. Corn got up to 4.8 back in January, February, and we've been as low as $4.40, but that's only a 40¢ drop, from the highs in February. Whereas corn, that $5.20, we're down to $4.30. That was a 90¢ drop in corn.
Greg Johnson:So like I say, with a 5 or 6¢ rally today, it's nice, but that just doesn't make up for what we've lost in old crop corn. And the new crop corn is just at the lower end of the range. Soybeans on the other hand, we've been anywhere from $10 to $11 on July futures, and we're at 10.78 today. So towards the upper end, towards the high of the market and farmers realize that. And so they're a little bit more willing to reward this rally and sell beans.
Greg Johnson:New crop beans have been anywhere from $9.75 to $10.75 this year on the board, and they're at ten seventy today. So again, right near the high. So it makes a little bit more sense for farmers to sell beans than it does on corn, and that's exactly what we're seeing.
Todd Gleason:Let's talk a little about convergence of old and new crop corn. Generally, what happens is you'll converge one way or the other, and it can be, especially in good growing years, convergence towards the new crop. However, the ending stocks number for new crop continues just to get tighter, and it's surprising, I think, that old crop hasn't played more of a role on this, especially as exports have been pretty darn good this, this year at least for the last six months.
Greg Johnson:You're right. Two months ago, we had a 40¢ inverse. July corn was trading 40¢ higher than the new crop December contract. Today we've lost all of that $0.40 inverse. And in fact, December corn is trading about $0.12 to $0.13 more than July corn.
Greg Johnson:So we've gone from a $0.40 inverse to about a $0.13 carry. That's over 50¢ that we've lost out of the old crop new crop spread. And like you say, that it kinda goes against, common sense because, the the ending stocks numbers keeps getting lower. The weekly export numbers continue to impress and be above expectations. But the funds have been sellers.
Greg Johnson:They must have their own reasons. They think the South American crop might give us a buffer between the old crop and the new crop. Whatever the reason, the funds have been selling corn and that we've kind of taken away the big premium. So the convergence has already happened. And do we go back to a slight inverse or do we continue to just stay at this carry throughout the growing season?
Greg Johnson:And I guess we'll have to wait and see. Your common sense or the law of supply and demand would say we might get one more chance to see this old crop gain on new crop, but not in the last several weeks anyway.
Todd Gleason:So what are the things you're watching today? What makes a difference fundamentally in the marketplace? Could be, the Iran Iraq war, could be Russia, Ukraine, crude oil, ethanol, livestock numbers. We have, at the end of this week, another set of numbers on cattle. What what's important to you today?
Greg Johnson:Well, from a soybean point of view, the renewable biodiesel mandate was huge. You know, we've seen soybean oil go up 24% this year, mainly as a result of the mandate, And that's the good news. The problem is when you crush a bushel of soybeans, 80% of that is soybean meal and only 20% is oil. So the old rule of thumb is you can't crush soybeans for the oil, you have to crush it for the meal. So with that 24¢ rally in oil prices, at the same time we've seen soybean meal prices drop 11% this year.
Greg Johnson:And beans have been stuck in the middle, beans are up 3% for the year. So basically beans are unchanged while the oil has really increased in price, the meal has really declined in price. And that makes sense because we have to get the low price of meal low enough to compete with Argentine soybean meal exports. And that's exactly what's going on right now. So, you know, that's what we're watching on, you know, and and the mandate was a proposal from the EPA.
Greg Johnson:There's a sixty day comment period, and then there's hearings on July 8. So, you know, that's not a done deal. If it stays as is, it's certainly friendly, supportive to soybeans, but things can have a way of changing during this comment period. So we'll have to wait and see on that. And as far as corn is concerned, really it kind of boils down to the weather.
Greg Johnson:Maybe we can get some support if crude oil prices go up, corn and crude oils kind of have a correlation there. So maybe corn could pick up a little bit of strength. But the bottom line is, you know, with 95,000,000 acres of corn, if the government doesn't change that on the June 30 acreage report by by very much, I think traders are kind of thinking that we're off to a good start in most places, you know, excluding Southern Illinois, Southern Indiana, Southern Ohio, and Kentucky. But the big areas are off to a good start. And if we can maintain that, we'll have enough corn and and that just doesn't get them excited.
Greg Johnson:So we really need a weather related scare, concern, forecast, something to get the corn market excited. And it, you know, the the good news is we're we're only 40¢ off the high in new crop corn. So a weather scare, know, $20.25 cents sounds like a lot today, but it really isn't. And historically, we typically see 40 to 50¢ rallies from the low during the summer. We haven't seen that yet, but that's still a possibility.
Greg Johnson:So I think we've got weather to look at, from the corn point of view, and from the soybean point of view, it's basically trade policies and tariffs and government mandates is what, will be moving this market.
Todd Gleason:Will the end of the month quarterly grain stocks figure be important? And I mean, by that I mean, do you think it will will reflect something that the marketplace isn't expecting?
Greg Johnson:Well, think it just reinforces the tightness, like you mentioned, on old crop corn stocks. You know, we're looking for exports in the July report to be increased again because every week, here lately, we've exceeded what we need to meet the USDA's target. So it wouldn't be surprising to see exports, bounce up another 50,000,000 bushels, and that would cut the Indian stocks by another 50,000,000 bushels in the July report. So, yeah, the June 30 stocks report should just reinforce what we've seen for several months now is that, you know, the old crop demand, is continuing to be good and that dwindles the old crop supply. So, things are tight, but, nobody seemed to be too worried about it today.
Todd Gleason:Thank you much, Greg. I appreciate it.
Greg Johnson:Hey. Thank you, Todd.
Todd Gleason:Greg Johnson is with TGM. That's totalgrainmarketing.com. Cattle producers need to be aware that the Asian longhorn tick has arrived in Van Buren County, Iowa in the southeastern part of that state. This is particularly an issue as the tick carries a disease called Tilarium and can be catastrophic once a herd is infected.
Teresa Steckler:There have been reports from veterinarians that up to twenty-twenty five percent of your herd could be lost to this particular disease.
Todd Gleason:That's Teresa Steckler. She's a beef cattle educator for University of Illinois Extension. She says Tilaria and the Asian longhorn tick have been mostly confined to the East Coast to this point but is cautioning farmers across the state of Illinois to be on the lookout for both.
Teresa Steckler:The big thing about this is looking for the ticks. The ticks are a carrier of this and there are many, many animals that will transport or move these ticks from site to site. Many of our bird species, they have recently found that bald eagles will have the ticks on them, owls as well, wrens, and many mammal species including white tailed deer, all kinds of different species, raccoons. Producers need to be aware and they need to be vigilant about looking for this particular tick. It's highly recommended that you guys, that the farmers take a batwing and mow at least once around the periphery of their pastures.
Teresa Steckler:That will create an area that's dry to help keep the ticks at bay if they're in the wooded areas next to your pastures. Keep feeds and stuff picked up. Don't encourage raccoons any more than necessary and other wildlife animals to come up onto the farm. The ticks will generally cluster in areas in the flanks, on the head, necks, you'll just see huge clusters of ticks. If anybody is aware of huge clusters of ticks on their livestock, they need to contact their vet or take samples into their vet immediately so they can be ID'd and then we can work with the livestock producers.
Todd Gleason:Are there other recommendations you make as it's related to the Asian longhorn tick and the disease?
Teresa Steckler:One of the big recommendations that we are making is that if you bring any livestock in to your farm, especially from states that have the tick, you need to quarantine these animals and you need to treat them, pour them, and pour them based on their weight. Don't judge them based on your eye. Get a good weight on these animals and pour them appropriately. Work with your herd veterinarian on a product for your herd and quarantine these animals for at least three weeks. Check these animals regularly and make sure you don't see any large tick populations, you know, ticks on the new livestock.
Teresa Steckler:Also, traditionally, since a lot of guys that row crop also have livestock, the guys that put their cattle out to pasture need to go out and monitor those ticks on a weekly basis. These ticks can overwhelm our livestock pretty quickly in tick infested areas, so it's very important that you pour these animals before you turn them out and also monitor them.
Todd Gleason:That's Teresa Steckler. She is a beef cattle educator with University of Illinois Extension. Let's check the weather forecast for the growing regions across the planet. Drew Lerner is here now. He's with World Weather Incorporated out of Kansas City.
Todd Gleason:Hello, Drew. Thanks for being with us today. We have lots of ground to cover. However, I'd like to really start with growing degree days. They had lagged behind, but it looks like we're gonna get some warm, maybe even hot weather over the weekend in parts of the Corn Belt?
Drew Lerner:Yeah. Yeah. You know, it's exactly what the doctor ordered, and we will see some great benefit from the little mini heat wave that's going to occur. This begins tomorrow and continues on through the weekend in the Plains and eventually in the heart of the Midwest. And eventually that will actually shift to the Atlantic Coast states.
Drew Lerner:We do expect temperatures to peak in the, we'll say the middle two thirds of the Plains in the range of 95 to 108. Might be a little more than what folks would like to have. It's pretty stressful for livestock and most of the crops will be okay because it's just a few days, but it will be stressful. And for those fields that do not have good moisture in the ground, there'll be a lot of leaf curl and a lot of concern about quick drying. So some of those areas out there in Nebraska, maybe a few counties in Iowa, but some areas in Northern Kansas, those areas will be a little bit of concern, even South Dakota for that matter.
Drew Lerner:But it doesn't last long. Like I said, In the heart of the Midwest, the highest temperatures would probably be 93 to 98. I would imagine that occurs again over the weekend into Monday, maybe Tuesday in a couple of Eastern and Midwest locations. But the temperatures will relax a little bit as we go into next week. And we do have an opportunity for some showers and thunderstorms to occur behind this because as the ridge progresses to the east, it'll be pulling moisture out of both the Gulf Of Mexico and from Mexico itself, and that will likely bring moisture back across parts of the plains and into the heart of the Midwest.
Drew Lerner:So so a few days of stress and then some relief, and it's not going to be too bad. Think the bottom line is, yes, there will be some improvement in degree day accumulations.
Todd Gleason:The best thing for a farmer out of that whole thing was that you said mini as it relates to the heat wave and then rainfall as it relates to after the fact. That doesn't sound terrible. The Canadian Prairies, I'd like to check-in on those as well. They have had years worth of drought. I think they've suffered again this year.
Todd Gleason:Is there rain for them out of this as well?
Drew Lerner:Yes. It's some very long awaited rain is expected to occur up that way. You're absolutely right. Some of the areas in the Southwest Corner of the Prairies that would be Southwestern Saskatchewan and some areas in South, I won't say Southern Alberta are in, I think their ninth year of notably below normal precipitation. They've managed to eke out crops periodically over the eight to nine year period, but it is pretty dry.
Drew Lerner:And yes, there's already been some crops written off. I just recently, I understand the insurance folks are in the fields in some of that region. There will be a significant rain coming up for Alberta. In fact, most of Alberta will get rain of significance in the Northwest and West Central parts of Saskatchewan. All of this starts tomorrow and continues into Sunday.
Drew Lerner:And there will be sufficient amounts of moisture to really bring crops around nicely. Those that are still viable. We do not expect a lot of rain in the Eastern part of the Prairies and there's some dry areas over there too, but they aren't as chronically dry as some of these areas in the Southwest. So this is a good thing for them.
Todd Gleason:Let's stay in the Northern Hemisphere and check-in on some of the other growing regions. Can you start in Western Europe first, please?
Drew Lerner:Yeah. You know, this is the time of the year that we see ridges of high pressure popping up. And not only do we have the one in The United States, but it looks like Western Europe is going to be seeing a rather frequent occurrence of ridginess over the western part of the continent. This will be over France and will impact parts of The UK and Germany and many of the neighboring areas. And we will be seeing the temperatures bouncing around through the eighties and nineties.
Drew Lerner:A couple of extremes over 100 will occur in France. France is actually the driest out of all the Western European nations right now. If you recall about two weeks ago, Germany and the North Sea region were really hurting for moisture and they did get rain. And France was a part of that, at least the dryness, but they did not get the rain that Germany got. And so France is now the driest area in the European continent.
Drew Lerner:And with the forecast being what it is, there's gonna be a lot of stress there in that country, and we will see a return of dryness in Germany and The UK as well.
Todd Gleason:And then turn your attention to China. Because of the trade implications of the tariff, and we don't like drought anywhere really across the planet, but if you're in The United States, you're kind of rooting for a drought in in China in hopes that they will buy soybeans anyway. Yeah. We talked about that earlier in the year as it relates to drought, though I take it that's dissipated some at this point.
Drew Lerner:Well, is in the process of dissipating somewhat, I guess. We keep talking about it, but it really they haven't had a good general soaking rain yet. But in this coming week, in fact, today is the first day that we are supposed to be seeing significant rainfall. There will be two provinces, Hainan and Shandong, which are very important production provinces. They'd be the equivalent of probably Illinois and Iowa.
Drew Lerner:They will both get significant rain, probably one to three inch amounts. And this will be the greatest single rain event that they have seen most of the spring season. And so it should help tremendously in easing the drought in those two areas. There's still dryness to the West and dryness to the North and some of that will prevail. But this will certainly knock down this drought in a fairly big way.
Drew Lerner:If they can get some follow-up rain, which I think they will, then maybe the worst is behind them, unfortunately.
Todd Gleason:Now turn your attention to South America. I suppose we need to check-in on wheat crops and planting seasons there, industrial ants and Argentina, Brazil.
Drew Lerner:Yeah, for Argentina, we're still dry in the West part of the country. Western wheat areas in Cordoba and portions of Western Buenos Aires and Pampa, they have a need for moisture. It's not a huge event, nowhere near as dry as it has been in past years. So it's a concern, but not a huge crisis. A little farther to the east is the other side of the coin.
Drew Lerner:It's getting too wet now in Rio Grande to Seoul. I think since last Friday, I think some locations in Southern Rio Grande have had more than 12 inches of rain. The forecast is for between four and twelve inches of additional rain from Rio Grande into Parana as we go forward through the coming week to ten days. It'll be spread out. It's not going to occur all at once, but it is getting too wet in these areas.
Drew Lerner:For Rio Grande, they aren't getting their wheat crop planted. So that's the first issue. Paranae has a lot of wheat left to plant as well, but you also have that safrinha corn in parts of Paranae. Definitely there's a need for drier weather there so that the crop can mature normally. Know, it's a few weeks ago we were concerned about it never raining there and hurting the crop.
Drew Lerner:Now we're worried about it raining too much. So you never know what you're going to get when you talk to me.
Todd Gleason:And then Australia please.
Drew Lerner:In Australia the situation continues to be a little bit tenuous although not a big serious crisis by any means. The planting season has been a little sluggish to say the least. We didn't see much moisture in late April or May. Is raining now periodically in some of the wheat, barley and canola areas in the South. But the moisture deficit, they're still fairly significant in some spots and the crop is probably not as far along and established as it ought to be.
Drew Lerner:As we go forward through the next ten days, we will get some moisture to fall in some of those areas, but it is going to continue to be a little bit lighter than usual. I think the bottom line is that they're going to be okay, but there's going be a little concern about the crop getting through the winter season with it not being as well established as it should be.
Todd Gleason:Thank you much. We'll talk with you again next week.
Drew Lerner:You bet. Have a good week.
Todd Gleason:You too. Drew Lerner is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City, joined us on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois, a public medium. It is public radio for the farming world. Look us up. Listen to us on demand anytime you'd like.
Todd Gleason:You can do that @willag.org or search out the closing market report in your favorite podcast applications. I'm University of Illinois Extension's, Todd Gleason. Doctor. JACKSON:
