Jan 14 | Closing Market Report
From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, ILLINOIS, this is the Closing Market Report for the 14th day of January 2025. I'm Extension's Todd Gleeson. Coming up, we'll ask Naomi Blohm of totalfarmmarketing.com about this morning's release of the CONAB numbers. Those predict, from the USDA counterpart in Brazil, the size of the corn and soybean crops there. You can see them, by the way, on our website right now at willag.org under the USDA tab. They come from CONAB, and they're not in 1,000,000 metric tons but they're in bushels. So it might be easier for you to grasp. And then a bit later in this program, we'll turn our attention to Ukraine. Joanna Colussi has pinned an article and a YouTube video as well related to the exports of wheat and corn, coming from that nation and how they have changed over the more than 1000 days of war there between itself and Russia. And as we close out our time together, Don Day will be here from Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming to take up the weather forecast, and along the way, we'll hear a report from Harvest Public Media related to the immigration status of some meatpacking workers not only in Greeley, Colorado, but other parts of the United States as well and how they may be impacted by the incoming Trump administration, all on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world.
Announcer:Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason, Host:March corn for the day settled at $4.74 and a half down 2, the May at 4.84 and 3 quarters, 2 lower, And December at 4.56 and 3 quarters, down a half a cent. March beans, $10.47 and a half, 5 and a half lower. New crop November at 10.49 and a half, down 1 and a half cents. Bean meal, $2 lower. The bean oil, 23¢ higher. And soft breadwinner wheat, up a penny a quarter at 5.46 a quarter. Naomi Blohm now joins us, to take a look at what happened in the marketplace. She's at totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin. Congratulations, Naomi. You are now the brand new owner just minted of turnaround Tuesday. It's yours from now on.
Naomi Blohm, Analyst:And that is exactly what happened today with the markets. Thank you for the honor. I'm I'm so honored, with with that title. But, yeah, markets today, definitely, we did see some turnaround Tuesday action with corn prices finishing 1 to 2 lower and soybean prices about 3 to 6 lower, definitely a reversal from the big upswing that we had from Friday Monday in response to that unexpectedly friendly USDA report.
Todd Gleason, Host:Is it just taking a breather, stepping back for the day, and will it push further to the upside?
Naomi Blohm, Analyst:Well, I would say, definitely a breather for the day as corn prices, that March corn contract got up to that 4.75 area. That's pretty significant resistance. It's the top of a downtrend line. It's also, a resistance area from summer because that used to be a support level for the March contract back at summer. And once we broke that support, things just went lower. So now we're back up to this level. It's resistance. And with the bean prices, the 10.50 was a significant hurdle. We were through it earlier in the session. I think that was probably shorts getting pushed out of the market and just exiting, But then with the market price almost finishing 20¢ lower from the high price of the day, we saw, I think, partly profit taking kicking in after the recent rally. I'm also thinking ahead that there are a few chances for rain now coming in for Argentina, and we're going to be going into a 3 day holiday weekend. So we might already see some positions squaring ahead of the markets being closed for Martin Luther King Junior Day, and then also Inauguration Day, Monday, brings its own host of uncertainties to the marketplace as well.
Todd Gleason, Host:The CONAB, USDA's counterpart in Brazil, released some updated numbers this morning. Production there, not much in the way of change up, but 3,000,000 bushels for corn and 4,000,000 bushels for soybean. Not that big a deal, but those numbers did come out and basically said still a lot of corn and soybeans to come from this nation. What'd you make of it?
Naomi Blohm, Analyst:Well, again, mostly as expected because we've been really hearing nothing but good things out of Brazil. So they're just solidifying their point. And and I think that the market is very much aware of that. And now this is also that time of year where we start looking ahead to the Brazilian harvest becoming available naturally, seasonally, we start to lose export sales in the United States because the Brazil harvest is getting underway. So we're gonna see then in the coming weeks also how our US export sales fair, with that Brazilian crop really doing well overall and and gonna be needing, a place to get shipped to once it is harvested. And when you look also at the currency relationship between the US dollar which overall continues to inch higher while that Brazilian real is at low values, it is gonna make it more attractive for other countries to start to import Brazil soybeans in the future just based on currency exchange rates.
Todd Gleason, Host:Yeah. So a couple of other numbers from the supply and demand figures. We'll look at the exports. And I do have them converted to bushels because I find it easier to to work with it that way. Their expectation is that their exports this year will be down not quite 200,000,000 bushels from the 23, 24 crop year, so we're in 24, 25 at the moment. That's for corn. And then for soybeans, that their exports will be up on the flip side, a couple 100000000 bushels. That should put a lot of pressure, I suppose, on soybeans to maintain where it is, at least in Chicago with the futures contracts. Can it do so in the face of this crop?
Naomi Blohm, Analyst:Yeah. I would say that the the the bean market is gonna have a tough go in the in the coming weeks here. We also have a tendency for soybean prices the last 15 out of 18 years. March soybean futures when you come back from Martin Luther King Junior weekend, prices have a tendency to trend lower into the end of January. So, again, the the market becomes more focused on that crop in South America. Now the one thing that could shift that would be if the rains that are expected to come into Argentina don't materialize like we're anticipating that could be something that shifts. And then, of course, we keep an eye on US biofuel mandates here as well. But in general, Brazil is the behemoth producer of soybeans and they export, you know, nearly double of what the United States exports overall. Their demand is just that strong and they've become the global leader for soybean production and exports.
Todd Gleason, Host:We'll hear more about the 45 z in just a moment. In the ag news segment, I do wanna talk a little bit about corn. Do you have a trend after Martin Luther King, holiday for corn as well as soybeans?
Naomi Blohm, Analyst:Well, it's actually a little bit more choppy, and mixed and sideways. So a lot of that depends on how our ethanol production numbers are going. And over the past few years, of course, corn ending stocks had been a little bit tighter. So no particular rhyme or reason. And I would say that in light of their USDA report putting that carryout at the 1,500,000,000 bushel area, that's gonna keep old crop prices, I think, supported. I don't know that we're gonna go straight up from here. We could see the marketplace have a 10 or 15, maybe 20¢ correction, but then just start to trade sideways as we get a better feel for US demand for corn going forward. Again, watching exports, watching ethanol demand, trying to get a handle on the new administration biofuels, keeping an eye on crude oil and, of course, South American weather. Now it's expected that the Brazilians are gonna be potentially planting even a little bit more corn for the safrinha crop. Now we know that their demand for corn has increased domestically just because of their own biofuel programs. But in general, corn fundamentals have shifted to more supportive for the short term with our old crop ending stocks. And then to the future, the corn market is looking at the reality of higher US planted acres with clients I'm talking to. Nearly everybody is telling me they're gonna be planting more corn next year because right now that's just how it pencils out as a better fit.
Todd Gleason, Host:Thank you much, Naomi.
Naomi Blohm, Analyst:Thanks for having me.
Todd Gleason, Host:Mhmm. Naomi Blum is with totalfarmmarketing.com.
Todd Gleason, Host:In today's agricultural news, we'll start with biofuels and 45 z. Biofuel and Farm Groups say the Biden Treasury's 11th hour overdue 45 z clean fuel production credit guidance is incomplete, leaving it to the incoming Trump administration to finish. The Renewable Fuels Association, Growth Energy, and Farm and Commodity Groups say the 45 z guidance to spur biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel is not ready for prime time. RFA head Jeff Cooper says the key emissions data and the GREET model for certifying compliance are missing, and the climate smart farming practices are not integrated.
Geoff Cooper, RFA:Farmers need to have a a broader palette of ag practices available to to choose from.
Todd Gleason, Host:In earlier versions of the SAF tax credit guidance, the IRS would have forced farmers to use 3 practices and use them simultaneously.
Geoff Cooper, RFA:No till cover crops and efficient nitrogen fertilizers.
Todd Gleason, Host:So now it will be up to the incoming Trump administration to formalize the 45 z rules.
Geoff Cooper, RFA:Including not just no till, but but other types of conservation tillage and and certainly not just such a reliance on cover crops, you know, things like manure application or or using manure in place of synthetic fertilizers.
Todd Gleason, Host:The head of the RFA concludes the latest guidance isn't bankable, investable, or actionable for most biofuel producers. Biofuel and farm groups praise the Treasury for restricting the eligibility of imported used cooking oil for the tax credit. Much of that oil from China is mixed with ineligible palm oil.
Todd Gleason, Host:Well, there's another outbreak of bird flu, this time on a poultry farm in North Carolina. The case was identified in Hyde County at a farm that raises birds for commercial egg production. The facility sits along a wild bird flyway, making it susceptible to interaction and contamination with wild birds. Veterinarians advise poultry producers and owners to be extra vigilant with their biosecurity efforts to keep the wild birds away from their personal flocks. Since 2022, high pathogenic avian influenza has impacted more than 130,000,000 birds across all 50 states.
Todd Gleason, Host:And finally today, the autonomous harvester market size is expected to record a 12% annual growth rate between 20242032. Global Market Insights says the rise will be fueled by a surge in product launches and the melding of advanced technologies with farm management systems. The surge is expected to be attributed to the rising demand for adaptable harvesters across diverse crops. In terms of crop type, the autonomous harvester market value from the fruits and vegetables segment will generate notable revenues from 2024 to 2032. However, as you could learn more about during the all day outlook scheduled for Tuesday, March 4th at the Beef House in Covington, Indiana. There will soon be more automation coming to row crops for farmers in the Midwest as well. And that's a look at today's agricultural news.
Todd Gleason, Host:Let's explore now Ukraine's relevance in the world corn and wheat export markets. Joanna Klusi with the University of Illinois farmdoc team posted an article on the subject in early December and followed that up with a 5 minute farmdoc YouTube video last week. I pulled some sound bites from it. Since the beginning of the war with Russia, Kulusi says Ukraine's economy has been hit hard. Its GDP is still 22% below 2021 levels, and she thinks the recovery to prewar levels could take up to 5 years even if the war ended today. Now before the conflict, Ukraine was a major player in global agriculture, exporting grains like corn, wheat, and vegetable oil to countries across Europe, Asia, and Africa. This year, its grain and oilseed production is expected to drop 74,000,000 metric tons. That's 10% lower than the last season, says Colussi.
Joana Colussi, UofIL ACES:Ukraine has lost nearly half of its wheat production, primarily due to a decline in acreage harvested rather than yields. A significant increase in wheat yields during the last two crop seasons has partially offset the sharp reduction in harvested area compared to the prewar levels. Corn production has also been affected, though not as badly as wheat.
Todd Gleason, Host:Colussi says the number of corn acres harvested has dropped, but the impact is less dramatic than that for wheat. This is because corn is produced widely across the country with acreage in both central and northern parts of Ukraine, while wheat is heavily concentrated in areas closer to the conflict zones in the east and the south. The geographic proximity to the war has taken a greater toll than on wheat production in Ukraine, while at the same time, Klusi says, farmers have been adjusting to world market signals.
Joana Colussi, UofIL ACES:Like, prices and export opportunities, which has helped maintain some stability. Still, lower yields and reduced acreage have kept overall corn production about 20% below, prewar levels.
Todd Gleason, Host:Ukraine, despite the production issues, has enough corn and wheat to meet its domestic demand. This, in part, is because of the shrinking population and a lack of livestock in the country. That lack of livestock, by the way, is both a short and long term issue. It's also one Ukrainians dealt with after the fall of the Soviet Union. People ate the cows and pigs without regard then for breeding stock. Rebuilding herds can be a years long process. It's also probably one of the reasons why Ukraine has been able to meet its wheat and corn export demand currently, though corn exports fell by some 6,600,000 metric tons in 2024.
Joana Colussi, UofIL ACES:But there is a bright spot here. Grain shipments via sea ports now make up 80% of all shipments, the highest level since the war started. This shows that Ukraine's export logics are holding up even in challenging circumstances.
Todd Gleason, Host:Here then are the big picture numbers. Before the war, Ukraine's share of the global corn export market was 30%. It's expected to be 24% this year. Its share of the global wheat market has not suffered as much, down just 1 percentage point to 15%. So despite significant challenges, damage to its infrastructure, lost farmland and reduced production, Ukraine's efforts to improve and secure its export logistics, and to target those improvements to gain market share in Western Europe, well, they've worked. This says Illinois' Joanna Colussi has allowed Ukraine to remain a player in the global corn and wheat markets. For a deeper look into this topic, check out Colussi's full article on the FarmDoc Daily website. It's at farmdocdaily.illinois.edu.
Todd Gleason, Host:You're listening to the closing report from Illinois Public Media. Earthly music is written, performed, produced in courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason.
Todd Gleason, Host:Now up next, President Donald Trump returns to the White House, as you know, next Monday and has promised to make immigration his top priority on day 1. That's likely going to have a big impact on the meatpacking industry and maybe the price of food. Ted Genaways with Harvest Public Media reports from Greeley, Colorado on what that may mean for workers and consumers.
Ted Genoways:President-elect Trump has promised to crack down on illegal immigration, closing the border on his first day back in the Oval Office.
Donald Trump, President-Elect:And on that same day, we will begin the largest deportation operation in American history.
Ted Genoways:Trump vows to remove up to 20,000,000 immigrants, claiming that it'll open up jobs for Americans, but experts say it won't be that easy. The meatpacking industry historically relied on immigrant labor, especially undocumented labor. But in the last 20 years, after a series of immigration raids, the industry turned to a new group, refugees. JBS, the largest meat producer in the world, pioneered the practice of hiring refugees for a simple reason, they couldn't be deported. At its 3 largest beef plants in Texas, Nebraska, and Colorado, the company employs more than 10,000 workers.
Kim Cordova:This workforce is an immigrant workforce, but they are here legally.
Ted Genoways:That's Kim Cordova, president of the United Food and Commercial Workers Local 7, which represents workers at the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado. She estimates that perhaps 90% of employees there are foreign born.
Kim Cordova:All the workers, at least at this facility, are documented, are here on proper work visas or asylum visas, refugees.
Ted Genoways:But Trump has vowed that his deportation program will include rescinding legal status for people who arrived here under humanitarian parole. In the last 4 years, president Biden used this executive power to welcome about a 1000000 people, refugees from Afghanistan, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba, and Haiti, and many of them find work in hard manufacturing jobs like meatpacking.
Kim Cordova:There's not a long line of people waiting for these jobs. They're some of the most dangerous jobs in the world to work at and just really dangerous working conditions.
Ted Genoways:Cordova says the JBS plant in Greeley has a night shift made up of about 1200 Haitian immigrants. They arrived in a wave about a year ago fleeing gang violence in Haiti and drawn by the promise of a steady job with good pay at JBS. Now their future is in doubt. Chelly Moyse is one of those Haitians. He fled to the US through Nicaragua and traveled up through Central America to Mexico where he was approved for humanitarian parole.
Ted Genoways:He's not sure his fellow Haitians understand what Trump could do.
Chelly Moyse:They feel secure because they know they already filed for asylum. I don't think they know the power that Trump is actually going to have as soon as, you know, he becomes the president.
Ted Genoways:Moise says that if the Trump administration rescinds humanitarian parole and flies Haitian asylum seekers back to Port au Prince, the gangs that force them to flee will be waiting.
Chelly Moyse:Most of us, we left the country, obviously, because it was very bad, and we know for sure going back to Haiti is is a death sentence.
Ted Genoways:Mass deportations will not only endanger the immigrants who are directly affected, they could also have wider impacts on the American food system. Don Stahl is an emeritus professor of anthropology at the University of Kansas who studied the meatpacking industry for more than 3 decades. He warns mass deportations will come with hidden costs for Americans too.
Don Stull, University of Kansas:If president-elect Trump, in fact, implements the kind of draconian policies that he has talked about, what we're going to see is, devastating impact on the meat and poultry industry.
Ted Genoways:Back in Colorado, Cordova predicts that Trump won't deport legal workers on humanitarian parole. He will simply convert them to temporary work visas.
Kim Cordova:And they don't really wanna do away with immigrants. They just don't want immigrants to have any rights. I mean, they know this country would collapse without them.
Ted Genoways:What actually happens when Trump takes office remains to be seen. I'm Ted Genoese, Harvest Public Media.
Todd Gleason, Host:Harvest Public Media reports on food systems, agriculture, and rural issues through a collaborative network of reporters and partner stations throughout the Midwest and the plain states, including here at Illinois Public Media.
Todd Gleason, Host:You're listening to the closing market report from Illinois, public media online, on demand, anytime you'd like at willag.org, willag.org, or search us out in your favorite podcast applications. Just search the closing market report. Now up next, Don Day is here. He's with day weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Hi, Don. Thanks for being with us. What's the story with the weather here in the United States?
Don Day, Day Weather:The story so far after the New Year has been for colder than average temperatures for most of the nation from the east of the rock east to the plains, and that trend will continue into the Corn Belt, the Midwest. And in fact, we're gonna see a wave of arctic air spill from the rock east to the Gulf Coast of Texas to the Panhandle of Florida throughout the upper midwest and Corn Belt, sending temperatures well below average for multiple days. Subzero temperatures will be found in some of the northern and western areas of the corn belt. Not a lot of snow in this arctic outbreak, but a little bit. Temperatures for the month have been well below average for a lot of the nation, and this January. Down in South America rain has returned to Brazil, and the 10 day outlook is for above average precipitation for all of Brazil. We're still looking at a dry trend for Argentina. While some of the northern and central Argentina growing areas will get a little bit of rain, the heavier moisture will stay in Brazil.
Todd Gleason, Host:Thanks much, Don Day is with day weather. He's in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Joined us here on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report. Do visit our website. The address is willag.org where you'll find today and every day for that matter updated information from the farmdoc team. That's the ag economist along with the animal scientist and the crop scientist here on the Urbana Champaign campus of the University of Illinois. It's all at willag dotorg. I'm extensions, Todd Gleason.
