Aug 22 | Closing Market Report
From the Land de Grand University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market reported as the August 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, Pro Farmer has released its national numbers based off the crop tour figures. We'll talk with Lane Acree. We'll turn our attention to the marketplace with Mike Zuzula, globalcomresearch.com, and then we'll get an update on the weather forecast too.
Todd Gleason:We'll do that with Eric Snodgrass from Nutrien Ag Solutions on this Friday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. December corn for the day at four eleven and a half, a quarter lower. The March at four twenty eight and three quarters down one. November beans at ten fifty eight and a half, up two and a half cents.
Todd Gleason:January 10 dollars 77, up 3 and a quarter cents. Bean meal at dime lower. The bean oil a dollar 20 higher, and soft red winter wheat in the December at $5.27 at a quarter down 2 and a half cents. As you know, we've been following the Pro Farmer crop tour all week. Lane Acree now joins us.
Todd Gleason:He's the economist at Pro Farmer. Thank you, Lane, for being with us and for all the work that you did, throughout the week on the eastern leg of the tour and behind the scenes across all of it. You have, along with Chip Lohrey and a few others, tallied what all those routes, meant and then did some massaging on them and came up with some national numbers as it relates to yields. Corn is the easier one for you to come up with, I suppose, because you actually have a corn yield. Soybeans a little tougher because you really only have pod counts, you need to convert that.
Todd Gleason:What kinds of things did you find when you finally put it all together?
Lane Akre:Yeah. It's a pleasure to have been mine this week. It's been a great experience. For our national numbers on corn, we finished with production at 16,204,000,000 bushels. That's an average yield of one eighty two point seven bushels to the acre.
Lane Akre:We have a 1% deviation on either side of that that encompasses our range. The top end is 184.5 bushels per acre and the bottom end is 180.9. One of the key factors that went into that was the amount of disease that we saw in the Western corn mill is the anticipation of the impact on ear weights and that's going to have some of this crops likely going to see maturation pretty quickly and that could really just lower that grain fill period, shorten it, and just really weigh on test weights. Last year we saw record test weights and that helped boost the national average up to 179.3. On soybeans, we got production at 4,246,000,000 bushels, that's an average yield of 53 bushels an acre.
Lane Akre:We use a 2% range on beans, 2% to the upside, two to the downside, it gives top end of 54.1 bushels and the bottom end of 51.9. There's a lot of pods out there.
Todd Gleason:There are a lot of pods out there, and the the scouts were flabbergasted, I think, in most places as they were counting those up. I do need to follow-up on the corn number with you just a bit. When you were putting that together, did you have a working number for how big you think the crop is at the moment and then calculated back from that for how much weight you think might be lost because of the disease?
Lane Akre:Oh, there's a lot of factors to consider. So USDA, NASS, they did their surveys late July, early August, and that was a snapshot in time that gave them their 188.8 and our snapshot in time showed the downside and the trend has been to the downside and the increase in disease pressure has been coming up all over the place. It's kind of working its way north from what we've found, but the Eastern Side Of the Corn Belt was just plagued with disease and some early maturation. And, you know, generally, we're of course, you know, we're sampling some of the best crops in the country and we take that into pretty heavy consideration as well.
Todd Gleason:So you're at a 182 plus as a snapshot in time today, giving really no changes but the disease progressing then.
Lane Akre:We take into consideration the weather as well and other areas in the country too that we don't sample. We take those in into consideration.
Todd Gleason:Lane thank you much I appreciate and we look forward to talking with you again sometime soon.
Lane Akre:Thanks Doug.
Todd Gleason:Lane Acree is with Pro Farmer joined us on this Friday afternoon with the numbers you can find them in more detail if you'd at profarmer.com or go to our website at willag.0rg. Mike Zuzlow, globalcomresearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. You just heard those numbers. A 182.7 bushels to the acre for corn. Mister Acree says that's because of the disease issues that they found, and soybeans at 53 bushels to the acre.
Todd Gleason:What's your initial assessment?
Mike Zuzolo:Well, I think, you know, from a trade perspective, Todd, I think the trade has been in the mind set that the corn yield was gonna be higher versus pro farmer, in the pro farmer numbers versus soybeans. And so I'd say pro farmer gave us the opposite of that with a higher soybean number, much higher, in fact, given what the USDA gave us on corn. So be interesting to see beans have been the leader to the upside. I think they'll still be the leader to the upside because it's still a weather market when it's all said and done. But I think corn could, I think, maybe join up very easily or much more easily with the beans if they wanna go up another leg in in next week's price action.
Mike Zuzolo:I I don't see anything negative in these numbers at all because I think even the 53 bushel bean yield number gives you the idea, I think, that with the disease pressure you just mentioned, they also talked about rain deficits in Ohio to finish the crop. They talked about, you know, twenty two year highs in soybean pod counts in Iowa and Minnesota, but they also talked about how there's, you know, some need to finish this crop strong. So I I think the trade will look at these numbers fairly friendly because they were very, I think, very nervous about the corn number going into
Todd Gleason:Admittedly, year in and year out, we follow this, and the trade follows the numbers but rarely reacts to the numbers. This feels like a set of numbers that Sunday night's going to get some attention.
Mike Zuzolo:I couldn't agree more, and I think what you hit upon, Todd, is, the notes I wrote on Thursday and Friday before the numbers come out came out was I like to hear what's on the tour because it supports or negates what I am seeing in the fields and what my clients are seeing in the fields, and I don't look as much at the final numbers because it's a calculation. This, as you said, seems to work into the disease pressure in the Western Corn Belt, the tip back in Illinois, the rain deficits in Ohio potentially. And so the rhetoric and the anecdotal evidence in this week's tour seems to have flowed into the final yield number, and I don't remember very often when that happens on a Friday afternoon. So I think this will be a very good test case to see is this time different because maybe they moved their model a little bit and changed their model a little bit to integrate the next two weeks or what's happened since the July to the August.
Todd Gleason:Tell me what you've seen in the marketplace this week and what you're watching.
Mike Zuzolo:Lot of noise in the markets, especially on Thursday and Friday because the EPA. So we're gonna need to work through the EPA update. It's good that they gave us an update on the RINs and on the exemptions, but we still have a lot more to find out and uncover. A weekly closes soft red wheat lower for the fifth week in a row. We really need to change that dynamic if we want, I think, a long term low in this market.
Mike Zuzolo:Where do we get that from? I think we still get that from Russia. And what's going on with Russia Ukraine peace talks or no peace talks? And so those are the top of the list, but I would as like most mid August time periods, heading to the the Farm Progress Show on Tuesday, I'm very excited to come over and take a look at everything and see you and all the all the locals there. But it's really, I think, much, much about the weather.
Mike Zuzolo:So watching that six to ten day forecast on Monday morning.
Todd Gleason:Yeah. I'm looking forward to having you on stage in the University of Illinois tent at 10:00. It should be a good chat that you and I and we'll have a lot to talk about, I think. It it feels like we're just gonna have a lot to talk about, on on Tuesday. I hope people drop by.
Todd Gleason:I'm I'm pretty sure they will. The weather just looks like it's going to be magnificent. When you come in the main gate at Farm Progress Show, if you turn to the right, the University of Illinois tent, you cannot miss the big college vases banner on the end of it. It's only a block and a half down, so it can be one of your first stops. But come back at 10:00.
Todd Gleason:Mike and I'll be up on stage talking about the commodity markets. I think Joe Jansen should be there too, PharmDoc, the amber ag economist. So and and do check out I'll I'll take a moment here just to plug this as well. Look at our website in the calendar because we have a very busy stage presence with a lot of really heavy hitters up on stage, and I think many of you will want to stop by and hear what they have to say. So check those out.
Todd Gleason:It's it's there at willag.org. Scroll down. You'll see in red the stage itself and what's happening. But if you click on that event, you'll see who's on the panels, for each of those. So click on it.
Todd Gleason:It'll open up, and you'll be able to see who's on the panel. And if you'll click on Tuesday at 10:00, you'll see Mike Zuzalo's name. Okay, Mike. So, we have a 53 bushel number for soybeans. What does that mean to you exactly?
Todd Gleason:I know you're very interested in it.
Mike Zuzolo:Yeah. I mean, I think this goes back to you know, I I changed my numbers about a week ago barring no drought, and I went from one eighty two plus to one eighty four plus. Gave my first b number out here today at 52.5. That compares to 50.7 last year by USDA. Those numbers can go back down again if we stay dry another ten days.
Mike Zuzolo:So I think that's really what it's all about. I would be disappointed if the trade took the 53 number on Friday as bearish or price negative because of what we're looking at in the weather in terms of trimming yield and that disease pressure. Clearly, the disease is showing up more from the pro farmer numbers in the corn versus the soybeans, but there's some issues out there in the beans from what I'm hearing as well.
Todd Gleason:It'll be interesting. Boris Camilletti will be up, and I did write Boris a note about the disease. He's a plant pathologist here on campus at the University of Illinois and asked him what he and his colleagues across the land grant system were talking about as its related disease. He said Northern Illinois had it. I think probably he's not he's not banged the warning bell.
Todd Gleason:He did as soon as it entered the state to to be sure to watch out for it. That was, I wanna say July 4 weekend or something like that. And but that Iowa was really ridden and we heard about that throughout the week this week, though admittedly there's not a lot to know about southern rust and corn other than it does a number on it and can. I don't know how far along the corn has to be before it stops, doing a number on it.
Mike Zuzolo:And I think producers have already told me this week between the southern rust and also the tar spot that they're having to hit another fungicide application potential. In. It's very difficult to spend the money at these margins right now, and it's very tough decision to make.
Todd Gleason:Indeed. It is. We'll talk all about that on Tuesday. Thank you for being with us today.
Mike Zuzolo:Thanks, Todd. Have a great weekend.
Todd Gleason:You too. Mike Zuzlow is with globalcomresearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. Let's check the weather forecast now with Eric Snodgrass. He's at Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrabal. Did you travel again this week, or have you been mostly back in our area?
Eric Snodgrass:Well, I've been in our area, but, I've been over in Indiana twice and went over to Springfield yesterday. And so, that's close enough to home that I I'd call it our area, but it was actually a good good trip, Todd. I got to see quite a bit of quite a bit of this part of the Corn Belt and kind of following the the Pro Farmer tour through that area. I was very curious to hear their numbers. But I'll tell you this.
Eric Snodgrass:As I went over to Indiana, the top thing that I was getting asked about is the hot nights.
Todd Gleason:Mhmm.
Eric Snodgrass:And I I looked at some of the data going back to 1981 and wanted to compare the number of nights we had over 70 degrees Fahrenheit, especially in the Eastern Corn Belt, to that average. And since I was in and around Indianapolis, I just I remember the number. There there's been 27 additional. So this is compared to average, but 27 additional nights compared to average that have had a low temperature above 70. And then you can add that.
Eric Snodgrass:I mean, look look farther to the south into Kentucky. It's like 35. And so these very, very warm nights, I think, have got a lot of folks concerned about the quality of the crop in that area. But that that same problem is not prevalent back farther to the West. Now we have not had a hot, hot summer, like record hot.
Eric Snodgrass:We've had a top 30, but it's not been what we would call encroaching on the ridiculous kind of heat. But that being said, in Champaign where we are, I've got us at 190 stress degree days on the year. So that means 140 is generally thought to be kind of a cutoff where if you get beyond that, you start to see a drop in yield for the ice states on corn. So we went past it. It'll be interesting to see what kind of local numbers look like around here.
Eric Snodgrass:Now the research that tells me that 140 is the cutoff that was done back in 2013, a lot has changed since then with respect to seed technology and whatnot. But, yeah, it's I'm telling you all this, Todd, because, hey, weather's absolutely spectacularly cool now. In fact, last night, I was over in Raintool. I kinda wish I woulda had a jacket. I wanna watch my son play soccer, and that what a contrast from what it was just a week ago.
Todd Gleason:You know, I have to say, if we're because we're in the middle of grain fill, with these cool nights, if we just had an inch, a widespread inch, it would add 20 bushels to the crop.
Eric Snodgrass:I can't give you that, Todd. I'm sorry. But the
Todd Gleason:Can can you give it to me on my farm? I'll
Eric Snodgrass:just drag my hose over. Okay.
Mike Zuzolo:Well
Eric Snodgrass:No. Unfortunately, it is drier. But, you know, these last few mornings as the temperatures have bottomed out, there has been a, you know, pretty healthy dew, and that's gonna go a long way too because we're not cranking the temps up so hot in the afternoon that we're evaporating all of it quickly. But you're right. We need one more hit of rain.
Eric Snodgrass:And, unfortunately, the best drains are gonna be out into, like, the hard Redmond or Wheat Belt over the next two weeks. We're gonna be pretty dry around here for a while. And that's you know, everybody's telling me the same thing. I just need one more. Just give me one more good rain.
Eric Snodgrass:My beans will fill. I'll have better you know, we'll kinda stop the the the bleed on the corn. And I'm like, we're gonna have to wait or hope that the pattern breaks sooner than I thought. But, again, the flip side of this, at least we're not pouring on the heat in addition to the the cooler weather excuse me, in addition to the drier weather as we go forward.
Todd Gleason:The rains in the hard red winter wheat belt, are they far north enough north into Kansas that they'll get the Kansas Nebraska line, and does they go go much further north, and how far to the east?
Eric Snodgrass:Yeah. They go well, this is a big question. You think about Missouri and Arkansas. I know that's out of the wheat belt, but that particular part of the Mid South needs a lot of rain. I have the northern extent of these rains getting into Southern Nebraska, the western extent getting all the way back through Colorado into New Mexico, the heaviest rains in Kansas.
Eric Snodgrass:And I was just talking to a grower down there. He's like, oh, this is this is exactly what we need. Bring up all the weed pressure now so that we can kill it and then plant the crops so we're not competing against those weeds at the same time we sow the crop later. And so he's they're all pretty happy out there with the forecast. And many people are like, hey.
Eric Snodgrass:Just bring that rain a little farther to the East because drought has expanded in the Delta. It's expanded in the Mid South. It's expanded in the Eastern Corn Belt. It's expanded all the way into the Northeast. And that is, same quarter over which I don't have a lot of rain coming in the next ten to fifteen days.
Todd Gleason:Yeah. You know, if you call him in three weeks, he'll tell you, please stop the rain. I want to I wanna sow my winter wheat crop. So, he's only happy for a moment.
Eric Snodgrass:That's right. That's right. Same with every farmer in Illinois too.
Todd Gleason:Every farmer around the nation. I I can remember my wife asking me when we first were married. She said, are your brothers ever happy with the weather? I was like, well, not for very long. No.
Todd Gleason:No. No. But but there are good years. There are and this is regardless of what's happened, this has been a good year. The crop is a big one out there and will be a record one.
Todd Gleason:It may not be as big as USDA put it to begin with, but it sure looks like it's gonna be a record one. What else are you watching in the weather that we need to pay attention to?
Eric Snodgrass:Yeah. Todd, you and I over the next, I'd say about, like, seven months. Okay? We we will be talking about La Nina just because it is right now influencing the the wind pattern. We've got pretty strong trade winds.
Eric Snodgrass:We've also seen a lot of cool water up well. And so we're gonna start to ask ourselves, are we gonna get a typical La Nina fall in winter, which typical is a little drier than average, not too bad. That's good for harvest. And then we tend to get into a winter where I don't know. You know what I'm gonna say.
Eric Snodgrass:Active Ohio River Valley storm track. Right? We've said that four out of the last five winters that you and I have talked because four out of the last five have had La Ninas. There's only 2023 into 2024 that didn't. So that's gonna be a big story.
Eric Snodgrass:But, Todd, honestly, as we peel off our harvest and start to get into our winter time frame, all attention is gonna go to South America. And some of the current forecasts are bringing in the monsoonal rains a bit early, which is kind of a slap in the face knowing what's been going on with just our markets and the size of The US crops. So we need those models to be wrong, to be honest for everybody listening. It would be a benefit to US crops if the rains were delayed and we had to cover that export, you know, the export markets during that time. But as it stands, it looks as though South America might get off to a good start.
Todd Gleason:Did you happen to find out when they're able to start planting yet?
Eric Snodgrass:I didn't. I've asked every I asked Matt Bennett yesterday. Arlen Suderman. I was asking all my heavy hitters, and none of so many of them are so focused on what's going on in The US. They're like, well,
Todd Gleason:I I haven't even looked. I don't know. I tried to look just now, and I I don't see it. So it's probably it there's a date. We just haven't figured out what is yet.
Eric Snodgrass:Alright. Either, next weekend or two weekends after that.
Todd Gleason:Yeah. Yeah. One of the two. It's not it it it's it is now upon us, and so we'll turn our gaze that direction, especially if it's dry here, for the fall, and there's not a lot to talk about as it's related to harvest delays. So we'll be talking about Brazil, and that crop soon enough.
Todd Gleason:Thank you, and I appreciate you taking the time with me again today.
Eric Snodgrass:Yeah. You bet.
Todd Gleason:Eric Snodgrass is with Nutrien Ag Solutions and Agrabal joined us on this Friday edition of the closing market report that came to you from Illinois public medium. It is public radio for the farming world. If you can stay with us for the whole of the hour, you'll hear all of our commodity week program. Otherwise, many of these radio stations will carry it over the weekend, and it's up online at willag.0rg right now. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by Welcome to Commodity Week.
Todd Gleason:I am Todd Gleason. Our panelists for the day include Brian Stark. He's with the Andersons in Mansfield, Illinois. Dave Chatterton is here with Strategic Farm Marketing out of Champaign, Illinois. And we're joined by Kurt Kimmel of agmarket.net in Normal, Illinois.
Todd Gleason:Commodity Week is a production of Illinois public media, public radio for the farming world online at willag.org, willag.0rg. Next week, we'll be at the Farm Progress Show in Decatur. Our commodity week programs run daily at 10:00. The farm doc team is there at 11:30, and the crop scientists are with us on stage in the University of Illinois tent at 11AM. The full schedule is online at willag.org.
Todd Gleason:Check it each day. We have many folks that'll be dropping by, and we'd like to see you there as well. Again, the calendar, all in red in the calendar. You'll find what's happening in the University of Illinois tent each and every day at the Farm Progress Show in Decatur. Let's begin with Kurt Kimmel who will be making his way to the Farm Progress Show next week.
Todd Gleason:Thank you very much for doing that. This week, however, we need to talk about the Pro Farmer crop tour, which took place. By the time this airs, we'll have the final numbers from Pro Farmer, which will be their national and statewide numbers. They differ widely from what you see on the crop tour because they do a lot of adjustments. However, what do you think of the numbers that have been coming out of crop tour to this point?
Curt Kimmel:Well, the bean pod capture just huge. Man, if you go ahead and finish off good shape, we'll have a fairly larger bean crop on that. There is some sudden death, some stem rot. The thing on this, some of these fungus and diseases are a little earlier than usual. It feels a little later here in September, but it can maybe take a little bit off the top.
Curt Kimmel:But the biggest observation probably is in the corn, that southern rust. And watching some of the videos, and I don't think they were AI altered, some of those participants come out orange and there's heavy rust. I'm not quite for sure some of those participants went to the hardware store to get some WD-forty to spray the shuck to loosen it up to count the kernels. I mean, was really surprised how thick that is, particularly in Iowa. So let's see how that unfolds in through here.
Curt Kimmel:Guys are really testing the fungicide here on longevity of it and whether they sprayed or not. The other thing too is I heard some guys went a little heavier on population, the ear counts are fairly good in some areas. And the bottom line is we still have a little bit of time here. We'll just have to see how the crop finishes out.
Todd Gleason:Kurt Kimmel is with agmarket.net joined us for our commodity week program recorded Thursday afternoon. You may hear it up online right now at willag.org, willag.0rg. Other panelists included Brian Stark of the Andersons and Dave Chatterton of Strategic Farm Marketing. Many of these radio stations will carry it over the weekend as well. You've been listening to the closing market report on this Friday afternoon.
Todd Gleason:Don't forget to visit us at the Farm Progress Show next week, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday in the University of Illinois tent. You can check out all the details of what's up on stage there online at willag.0rg right now. You've been listening to the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. I'm Extensions, Todd Gleason.
Creators and Guests
