Aug 19 | Closing Market Report
From the land to Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It is the August. I'm Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Naomi Blum. We'll hear from the eastern and the western legs of the Pro Farmer crop tour with Oliver Slope and Ted Seifried, and then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast from Don Day on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media.
Todd Gleason:It is public radio for the farming world. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. December corn for the day settled at $4.03 and a quarter cents, down three and a quarter. The March at four twenty and three quarters, three and a half lower. November beans down seven and a half at 10:33 and three quarters.
Todd Gleason:January 1053 and a quarter, six and three quarters lower. Meal was up $7. The oil, a dollar 59 lower. Soft red winter wheat in the December down three and three quarters. It finished at $5.21 and a quarter cents.
Todd Gleason:Naomi Bloom from totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin now joins us. Hi, Naomi. Thanks for being with us. As you watch the marketplace, what are the things that have been on your mind that you want to remind farmers of as we make our way through the last third of the month of August?
Naomi Blohm:Yeah. There's actually quite a few things to be balancing as we head into the August. Of course, we're trying to balance where the USDA has this large crop pegged for yield, along with what the Pro Farmer Crop Tour has been looking at, which shows some mixed results, but overall a decent crop in general. So traders are trying to balance the two types of yield information coming at us along with the tendency for a harvest low to occur oftentimes in late August or early September. Keep in mind, we have option expiration coming up this Friday for the September grain contracts and first notice date for September grain futures next week.
Naomi Blohm:So, quite a few things to balance here, and the market, I feel, is reflective of that. Corn seems to be trading in a very modest trading range where the market has got some resistance at the four ten area on December corn, then some short term support at $4, while the beans have been trading between ten fifty resistance and ten twenty five support. Market probably for a few more days just kind of hangs out in those trading patterns until we get a little bit more news on the final yield results and ultimately what that might mean for the balance sheets for the remainder of '25.
Todd Gleason:I did see, I think, that Mexico bought some soybeans from The United States. Is that right?
Naomi Blohm:Yes. 228,000 tons of beans sold to Mexico for new crop. A very, very welcomed sale helps us to stay on track for where the USDA thinks we should be. However, the big missing factor continues to be China. So China has been booking from South America and the rumor mill says that their needs for the bulk of fall has been met, but they still need to get their needs met for the latter part of October and November.
Naomi Blohm:So we wanna see them show up. If we can see China show up soon, that would definitely be supportive for the markets. And then the other thing to be watching for soybeans is we're starting to hear about white mold in the fields and sudden death. So that's something to just be in tune with. It's, of course, something that can happen every year, but the market might be a little bit more sensitive to that information, especially with as tight as the balance sheets are right now for new crop corn ending stocks at two ninety million bushels.
Naomi Blohm:There's not a lot of room for any yield adjustments to the downside. And then, of course, like I said, we're watching and waiting for China to show up for the export.
Todd Gleason:You've been watching, I'm sure, as well, the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Not quite negotiations yet, but what president Trump has been trying to build and the European Union has been working with along with, the president of Russia. Do you think that that, if it comes to fruition and into the war, will have an impact on the price of wheat and or oil seeds?
Naomi Blohm:Well, that is definitely a question that we're all wondering, and quite frankly, I don't know is the answer. But it would make me feel like between that or watching some of the interest rate news that's gonna be coming up in the coming weeks and months, between those two factors, those might influence managed money traders. So we'll see if they bite on any of that news, but it has been a slow going process. It feels like trade at the moment is immune to anything until they actually see some proof in the pudding, so to speak.
Todd Gleason:What are you following in the livestock this week?
Naomi Blohm:Well, this week we're keeping an eye on cash markets. Boxed beef values continue to be strong for live cattle prices. We do have a cattle on feed report coming up on Friday. Pre report estimates just came out. On feed, the average estimate that they're looking for is 98.1.
Naomi Blohm:The placement number, a low number at 91.1 for the average estimate, and the marketed number at 94.1. So we'll see if we see some position squaring heading into that report on Friday. Of course, the market still keeping an eye on any news that might emerge further from Mexico with screwworm or getting that border open and trying to keep an eye on consumer demand. Right now, the consumer demand is there, but at what point will the consumer finally bulk and walk away, and then we see that market shift over. So keep an eye on the cattle on feed report Friday afternoon at 02:00.
Todd Gleason:Hey. Thank you much. I appreciate it.
Naomi Blohm:Thank you.
Todd Gleason:Naomi Blohm is with totalfarmmarketing.com out of West Bend, Wisconsin joined us on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report that comes to you from Illinois Public Media, public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.0rg. Let's check-in on the eastern leg of the Pro Farmer crop tour. Oliver Sloop joins us again from Blue Line Futures. Thank you, Oliver, for being with us. I know yesterday and today both, probably, I think you were in Indiana, though maybe you started only in Illinois this morning.
Todd Gleason:Let's begin with what you found in Indiana and what your outlook like.
Oliver Sloup:Yeah. We, we did a lot in Indiana yesterday. That was our primary focus. As I'd mentioned, we did a a half route. So the other half focused on Ohio.
Oliver Sloup:We jumped straight over to Indiana. This morning, we did do a a few counties in Indiana. And I think largely speaking, I think the underlying theme from yesterday was just underwhelming, especially relative to such lofty expectations. You know, crossing over the state border into Illinois today, which is where we've done a bulk of our sampling. Now that things have have turned a little bit more positive, and I think today's takeaway so far is probably consistency.
Oliver Sloup:We're seeing a lot less variability, a lot less issues with regards to weather problems in Indiana. It really looked like a lot of fields could have used, quite a bit more moisture and probably still could use quite a bit more moisture to round out these crops. So far from what we've seen in Illinois, that hasn't been the case. It looks pretty darn good, and the yields are a lot more consistent on the counties that we're in. We're actually in McLean County right now, which I've been
Oliver Sloup:really looking forward to since before we even got on the road because it's one of the country's top producing counties. And so far, I mean, we've we've only done three or four samples here, but we're, you know, in the mid two fifties, on those yield checks. So it'll be interesting to see what other people find in this county and other counties around us, but I would say it's probably living up to expectations in Illinois so far.
Todd Gleason:I'm gonna guess that your route ran steadily westward from Indianapolis, but mostly north of the interstate or of 74. Is that correct?
Oliver Sloup:Yeah. Just just north and, basically straight straight line west. So we've, we've come across some good ground. We did get rained on a little bit this morning, but it wasn't anything too bad. It like it's kinda cleared up, and we've got a a beautiful day and afternoon ahead of us.
Oliver Sloup:So, hopefully, be able to get some some more good data points out there.
Todd Gleason:And did your yields, and your pod counts get steadily higher the further west you have come, and then, of course, you say they've, evened up at a really high level. Is that correct?
Oliver Sloup:That's correct. Especially once we start across in the state line and working further west, things seem to be getting better and more consistent through our samples this morning, including Indiana's, counties. I think we're averaging, right around two twenty two, bushels per acre. So pretty darn good, a lot different from what we saw yesterday. Again, yesterday was just, I think, a story of under underwhelming findings across much of the state of Indiana.
Oliver Sloup:A different story today in Illinois.
Todd Gleason:I watched Chip Florrie last night, actually, this morning for some of the news pieces that they sent to us, and he was asked an interesting question. I'd like to know your take as well. The question was, was he more impressed in South Dakota with the corn or the soybeans? He wanted to be more impressed with the corn, but the consistency wasn't quite there, and he was sorely impressed with the soybeans. How about your route so far?
Todd Gleason:What do you think?
Oliver Sloup:Well, we we've split it up, so I'm I'm focusing mostly on corn, but having a conversation with the other riders in my car that do focus on the soybeans. As I've mentioned, it's similar to corn. Further west we go, the better things look. And I think a lot of that, you know, it's just, you know, soil composition and just the nature of the beast. Illinois has really, really good ground, especially, in this area, and then they've gotten good weather along the way to really keep things going on the right trajectory.
Oliver Sloup:So, yeah, very, very good. I would say the people that are down in the beans in our car are, you know, very pleased with what they've seen. Numbers continue to to get bigger and better and, again, more consistent, which seems to be the underlying theme for today.
Todd Gleason:Last night, as you were meeting there, North Of Indianapolis, what was the common theme from most of the other cars that you were talking to and the crop scouts that were running other routes?
Oliver Sloup:Yeah. I think largely through Indiana, it it was just underwhelming. I don't think that was isolated to just our route or vehicle. I think a lot of people were you know, set the expectations really high, and and rightfully so. It was the first day of crop tour, and coming off of last week's USDA report, those expectations are set high.
Oliver Sloup:So maybe that was part of it, where you just put such a high watermark out there, and you think you're gonna see great, perfect corn all day long. That wasn't the case. It wasn't bad corn, but it just fell short of expectations. I mean, with the USDA projecting Indiana at two zero five, you expect it to come across some really good corn and more consistent corn. But, again, variability was seen really throughout our route yesterday, and that seemed to be a theme for other routes as well.
Todd Gleason:It'll be interesting to see what the numbers tally up like tonight when you're in Bloomington and give that final number for the state of Indiana in that case.
Oliver Sloup:Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely. And I'm I'm looking forward to that. I wouldn't be surprised to see it come in a little bit lower.
Oliver Sloup:We saw Ohio number come in a little bit over what Pro Farmer put out last year, but still, again, Ohio was below well below what the USDA put out here recently. So, again, I I think it's a story of underwhelming performance so far, on the further east side of things. But, again, as we move west, I kind of expect things to get a little bit better.
Todd Gleason:Oliver Sloop is with Blue Line Futures joined us here on the closing market report. Let's turn our attention to Ted Seifried. He is with Zaner Ag Hedge and traveling, in South Dakota and then Nebraska on the western leg. Hi. Thank you for being with us, Ted.
Todd Gleason:We appreciate that.
Ted Seifried:Hey, Todd. My pleasure. Thanks for having me.
Todd Gleason:Let's start with, yesterday in South Dakota. It sounds like that was a really good crop for that state. You've traveled there many times in the past, a veteran of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. How many times have you been out West for the tour and what did this look like in comparison?
Ted Seifried:Yeah, so seven times I've been out West, out of 11, I've been on the tour 11 times overall. So I've done a little bit of both, but mainly on the West. And I gotta say, the portion of South Dakota that the tour goes through, saw some really good numbers yesterday for both corn and soybeans. Being South Dakota and a normal year you see a lot of variability, know, there's just storm damage, you know, you see a lot of different things and you can see completely different results, you know, just even a couple miles apart and I think whatever we were talking about, you know, after South Dakota yesterday was kind of how uniform the crop is and I think that is how you get to these bigger yield numbers. The other thing is, you know, this time last year the concern was okay, soybean pod counts are one thing but are they going to get the moisture to finish off drier soils and things like that but this year better soil conditions, better forecast outlook for them, I think very likely those soybeans are gonna get what they need or may have most of what they need already.
Ted Seifried:So yeah, think the outlook for South Dakota is really very good. Think it may justify what the USDA is saying for South Dakota now. Again, the truer doesn't go for all of South Dakota. But personally what I've heard from clients in the areas that are part of the tour such as like the Northeast portion or the Central, North Central or even North Central West, not quite all the way west, know, not as much out there but I mean, all the reports for for South Dakota are really quite good. So I mean, think that is one of the really good spots of what we're gonna see on the tour.
Ted Seifried:We heard some different numbers coming out of Ohio yesterday. But yes, South Dakota looks really pretty good.
Todd Gleason:USDA has South Dakota at 168 bushels to the acre. Yesterday's number released by Pro Farmer on the routes was 174.18, but there's a difference because that's the better part of the state of about 5.3 bushels to the acre. Generally, that actually puts it down at around 168 because you have to subtract rather than add that number. It's just you're running through a better side. So USDA and it appears Pro Farmer agree on that number.
Todd Gleason:One sixty eight, a very good number for corn there. I'm told that what you probably ran through yesterday in Nebraska if you did and then again today is really, really good. Can you tell me about what you've seen?
Ted Seifried:You know, yesterday, you know, I I did I did a lot of Nebraska yesterday and yesterday was really very good. I was kind of surprised that the first day in Nebraska is is kind of the the side of Nebraska that you don't see as much irrigated and you worry that, you know, this is kind of a rougher spots. They deal with a lot of weather and oftentimes dryness, but it was really good. And it was kind of a continuation from what South Dakota was. Meaning, you know, you had you had cornfields that are were kind of at different stages or or different lengths as far as how far they need to get to the finish line or maybe they're like ten days apart but you had a lot of uniformity in the ear size, the number around, the ear counts.
Ted Seifried:It was just a very even and a very good looking crop and that was kind of whether it was irrigated or dry land. The only difference there would be ear counts or how high of a population they were pushing. But it was a really good looking crop. Now I don't know what's going on the rest of the routes here on day two of Nebraska, but for our route and stops today, and keep in mind, my car, we ran the same routes last year and with Sherman Newman and Karen Braun and we're kind of disappointed with what we're seeing compared to last year and compared to expectations. Compared to last year, our average corn yield through nine stops is actually down 3% at just over 200 bushel an acre but our soybean number is the one that's really off, down 23% from the same stops and same counties last year and that was kind of unexpected and that's mostly irrigated as well.
Ted Seifried:Todd, pod counts aren't the be all end all of soybean yield but obviously the higher pod count you have, the higher potential you have. So just pod count alone, you can't say that the yield is sharply lower because I think that there's a potential to fill these pods out better than last year. But for that pod count number to be down as much on a route was a bit of a surprise. Now again, we're one of 15 cars out here today. Could be a different story in different cars.
Ted Seifried:We have one of the most northern routes on this day too. So I can just speak for what we've seen personally. You know, a bit of a surprise, bit of a disappointment here today.
Todd Gleason:Chip Florian, his morning comments actually recorded last night was talking about, how good Nebraska he saw yesterday happened to be and that he was worried that South Of The Platte River might be an entirely different subject area. I don't know what your route is traveling like. Is are you North or South Of The Platte at this time?
Ted Seifried:So right now, we're south, but not by not by very much. And again, we're one of the more northern routes. We just left Davis City, Nebraska and by the way, we've seen a whole range of soil conditions, right? I mean getting out of Grand Island it was pretty dry but just here recently we've been seeing standing water. At the last cornfield I was in, I was, you know, up to my ankles in mud.
Ted Seifried:So, you know, it's very varying conditions that we're seeing here today.
Todd Gleason:Thank you much. I appreciate it. Good luck, and tell Karen and Sherman hello from us here at WILL. We appreciate it.
Ted Seifried:Absolutely. Do. Todd, thanks for having me. I really appreciate it.
Todd Gleason:You're welcome. Ted Seifried is with Zaner Ag Hedge and traveling on the western leg of the Pro Farmer crop tour. You can stay up to speed with the tour on our website. Check it out at willag.0rg. We have some historical numbers from each state, and of course, we're posting the updated Pro Farmer tour route numbers into the website as well.
Todd Gleason:It's all at willag.0rg. Let's check the weather forecast now. Don Day is here. He's with Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Hi, Don.
Todd Gleason:Thanks for being with us. What's the weather like out west today?
Don Day:Well, we are looking at what I'd call a very typical August weather pattern across the Lower 48 with some areas of heat, some areas of thunderstorm activity. We've got tropical activity off the coast with Hurricane Aaron. All of these things, what you'd expect in the middle of the month.
Todd Gleason:Alright. So let's begin, work our way from west to east in the Northwestern Part of The United States and the Upper Great Lakes. They've got quite a bit of rainfall. Can you kind of recap that for me and tell me what that area might look like over the next week?
Don Day:Well, over the next week, and you're right, that that Northwest part of the Corn Belt, parts of the Northern Plains, it's just been a lot of thunderstorm activity day and night up there going all the way back to early July. There is a bit of a change though coming. We're gonna see something that might be a couple of weeks ahead of schedule, but we're we're seeing a large trough. It'll move across Central Canada late this week and especially this weekend into early next week. Cooler and also drier air is gonna come in.
Don Day:And what this will do is this will turn off the shower and thunderstorm activity for the most part as we go into that part of the country then spreading south and east across the Great Lakes and across the rest of the Corn Belt. It's gonna be fallish. This is a fall like front coming in, not only with those cooler temperatures that we're expecting, but lower humidity as well.
Todd Gleason:Yeah. So we see some of that tomorrow, Thursday, Friday for sure. And then early next week, it gets even cooler. And does this stick around for very long?
Don Day:It does. I mean, I could see a seven to ten day period of, temperatures a bit below the thirty year average for most of the nation East Of Rockies. It is a little bit of hint of fall coming our way. And, when they happen, during here during the August, a lot of times we'll warm back up and have some more summer weather coming our way. We certainly see that the week after this, but this will be a rather long standing period of what I would call very pleasant weather for late August for a lot of the nation.
Todd Gleason:And it's dry throughout that period as well?
Don Day:Mostly dry. Yeah. There's gonna be a little bit of shower and thunderstorm activity, but we're actually gonna see the best rain chances in areas they desperately need it. And that's areas West Of the Divide into the Great Basin, the Desert Southwest, parts of the Western Slopes Of The Rockies that are very dry and dealing with wildfires. They're gonna have the better chance of rain.
Todd Gleason:Will hurricane Aaron supply any moisture to Ohio, parts of Indiana they're in need?
Don Day:No. It's curving back into the North Central Atlantic, and once it does that, it's going to dissipate and hit some colder water. There's going to be more tropical activity though behind it. We see two more waves coming off the coast of Africa heading westbound. So Erin is gonna be followed by some other hurricane activity here in the weeks ahead, and perhaps one of those could work their way into the Gulf or parts of the Southeastern United States and maybe hit that Eastern Corn Belt.
Don Day:But it's not gonna happen at least here over the next week.
Todd Gleason:Hey. Thank you much. I appreciate it.
Ted Seifried:Thank you.
Todd Gleason:Don Day, as with Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming joined us on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report that came to you from Illinois Public Media.
