Aug 12 | Closing Market Report
From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois. This is the closing market report. It is the August 2025. It's USDA report day. This morning, the agency upped the ante for corn by a billion bushels.
Todd Gleason:That's right. A billion more bushels of corn will be harvested this fall than had been expected. We'll talk about that number and how the agency arrived at it with Mike Zuzolo. He's at globalcomresearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. We'll hear from the new chancellor at the University of Illinois, Charles Isbell.
Todd Gleason:I spent some time on Friday last week in Springfield with him at the Illinois State Fairgrounds. And then as we wrap up our time together, we'll take a look the weather forecast too. We'll do that with Don Day from Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org. That's willag.0rg.
announce:Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason:September corn for the day down 13 and a half cents, $3.71 and a half. The settlement price, December at $3.94 and a half, down 13 and a quarter, and the March at $4.12 and a quarter, 13¢ lower. November beans, 21 and a half cents higher. It finished at $10.32 and 3 quarters. January at $10.50 and 3 quarters up 21 and a half and soft red butter wheat 9 and a half cents lower for the afternoon.
Todd Gleason:In the December, hard red December at $5.30 down seven and a half. Mike Zuzalo at globalcommercesearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas now joins us to discuss this morning's USDA report. We can talk about the marketplace, Mike, but this is all about the extra billion bushels that came in the corn market. And I don't know. Is it all about the I mean, the yield numbers were big, but it's a lot about the acreage changes.
Todd Gleason:Can you tell me what you saw this morning?
Mike Zuzolo:Yeah. I mean, for me, I I wouldn't have minded a half a million acreage move, maybe even a million acreage move, but to see a two and a half million acreage decrease in harvested acres for soybeans going from 82.54 to 80.1 and then moving 2,000,000 of that over into the corn so that we're instead of being at 86.8, 88.7. That was the biggie for me, Todd. And fortunately for us, the USDA came in with a total demand increase for corn for 25, 26 of almost five fifty million bushels. Had they not done that, we could have been at a two-three-two-four carryover, quite honestly.
Mike Zuzolo:But yeah, that was the biggest issue, the biggest distinction to me. And I've had several phone calls since the reports come out from listeners within 50 miles of Will radio in the in the station there in Champaign Urbana saying I just can't see 97,300,000 planted acres and almost a one eighty nine yield. I will say, though, in in in qualification. And in, heedence to what USG puts out, they talk about their remote sensing satellite data. They talk about how they focus on the Corn Belt, but that imagery only goes through July 27.
Mike Zuzolo:And I bet back on July 27, a lot of producers were saying this is going to be amazing in terms of yields in this last couple of weeks, both too wet and too dry and disease and tar spot have started to really trim the yields back in anecdotal conversations. So I I like to look at this report a little bit in the rearview mirror at this stage.
Todd Gleason:You mentioned July 27 for the satellite data. These numbers from today are for August 1 inclusive except for the FSA acreage changes. Those would have been dumped either last night or today, I believe. It's pretty likely, I suppose, that we won't see another change until maybe the January final figures.
Mike Zuzolo:Yeah. I think you're right. And I think that kinda goes in hand in hand with you know, we had talked about this last week where it sure seemed like it was very similar in terms of the price action, the market sentiment, even the price actual prices themselves felt a lot like August in that 2024 report, which ended up being able to put a low in the market. It's gonna be interesting because we have a similar dynamic now other than the tariffs with a hotter, drier forecast in the weather. And so not only did the beans get the best of the reports by going below the lowest trade gas on US ending stocks to $290,000,000, but we now have a hotter, drier bias in these weather models that the trade is picking up.
Mike Zuzolo:So it's really up to the soybeans to lead the corn higher in the short term. The mantle being handed over from the wheat to the soybeans for me in the short term, since it's all about the bean crop size because of what you're talking about. Short that that tightness of two and a half million more acres, you tighten that yield up any more than what we just, you know, increased in terms of today's report. It's really gonna make a big splash on the ending stocks number And, you know, to go from 52.5 to 53.6, could we be right back at 52.5 next month? And all of sudden we're talking about a two forty, two fifty carryover or two sixty carryover.
Mike Zuzolo:So that's something to really keep in mind here in the short term to watch the soybeans to see if they can't give us a better price action and really kind of heal up the negativity of the corn market. And also with the idea that maybe corn's factored some of this in because of all the big yields being talked about before the numbers came out.
Todd Gleason:Might go back and take a look at the weekly charts for corn last year, at the end of this month, but clearly, it was based on what happened in that USDA report last year. On the soybean side, is their concern that China, for instance, who made a move against Canada today, finally, as it's related to the EV tariffs, the 100% that they put on last summer, and and put a 75 or 78, I don't remember, percent tariff on, canola from them. Do you think you is that a signal to the president that they're willing not to buy US soybeans as well after he called for them to quadruple things earlier this week?
Mike Zuzolo:Yes. I believe that's the case. And I think this is where we just got some fresh data from both China and Brazil. And Brazil's February through July soybean exports gonna shake out around 77,000,000 tons. That's up about seven and a half percent.
Mike Zuzolo:Almost 56,000,000 of that 77 went to China. So they did about 56,000,000 tons versus about 51 for the same time period last year. Their exports are up almost 10%, in other words, going straight to China versus last year. Argentina also shipped about 1,200,000 out in July, and 92% of that went to China. The good news is the USDA staying on top of this because they took the export number down to 1.705 that matches up with 2023 and the 2024 marketing year of 1.7.
Mike Zuzolo:And that was the number I was using in my balance sheet was 2023, 2024. So I like where they're at right now. I think we've got some insulation to losing any more Chinese business, and it's showing up on the, the supply demand balance sheets.
Todd Gleason:Okay. Good news there then. Even if things do, go sideways, you think we might have a good number, out of USDA or a fairly good number at this point. Given what would be picked up by other nations. I take it that's how that's happening.
Todd Gleason:Correct. Anything else in the s and d table for soybeans before we turn back to corn?
Mike Zuzolo:No. The only thing I would throw out is what you just brought up on in terms of last year's lows. You're you're a 100 right. The lows in in corn and wheat both came in the week of the August 26, but we made the low in the soybeans this week at $9.36 and a quarter. I'd really like to see that same type of scenario happen and see this really strong weekly close on Friday because that would make me feel a lot better about this s and d numbers from corn especially.
Todd Gleason:You mean every other farmer in the nation. Yeah.
Mike Zuzolo:That's an analyst who's been hedging beans instead of corn, and you got a lot of work to do between now and harvest.
Todd Gleason:Total use, from for corn up 545,000,000 bushels. Now that's half of of what the increase was. So some of that, of course, went into the ending stocks, a little bit more than half. They increased feed and residual 250. I guess that makes sense if you have a $3.90 cash corn price around the nation.
Todd Gleason:That's what they're expecting for the year.
Mike Zuzolo:Yes. I I you know, that feed and residual is such a tough one because it's the leaky bucket. It's whatever's left over, and I was surprised that they cut it last year or last month. Now I'm glad they put it back in. But, I like the fact that they continue to push up the ethanol number a little bit at a time.
Mike Zuzolo:And like the fact that they jumped on the exports by about 200,000,000 bushels, because you go back and look at last year and the fact that we're down to a 13 carryover now and 2,425. I think at one point we were 2,100,000,000 bushels at one point in the UST numbers back, I want to say last December, January timeframe. So the demand just hasn't stopped. And this is where that commodity demand low led by the corn really does resonate in the numbers, in my opinion. It's just we can't see it yet because the supply side is so big.
Mike Zuzolo:And that's where the other thing I really looked at hard not to jump around from domestic to, global too much, but I really looked hard at twenty four twenty five corn numbers. For Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine. We actually did see Ukraine's exports cut a million metric tons, but all the production numbers stayed the same. So I was very glad that nothing moved around on us there globally because we could still keep getting that market share given our price.
Todd Gleason:Hey. Thanks much. We'll talk with you again on Thursday for commodity week and Friday for the closing market report. Thanks, Todd. Appreciate it.
Todd Gleason:Mhmm. That's Mike Zuzula. He's with globalcomresearch.com out of Atchison, Kansas. Stay with us here on Illinois public media at will ag dot o r g. In just a moment, we'll hear from the new chancellor at the University of Illinois, Charles Isbell.
Todd Gleason:I spoke with him last week during Ag Day at the Illinois State Fairgrounds in Springfield, but first, we'll hear something directly related to the fairgrounds and the new chancellor as well. I caught up with Jennifer Tyree, the executive director at the Illinois Pork Producers Association. She was working the Commodities Pavilion across from the grandstand and talking about the great food that they have there, farm raised in the state of Illinois.
Todd Gleason:Tell me about State Fair and the Commodities Pavilion, the history here, what it means to places like the pork producers, the Illinois Beef Association, those that are involved, Illinois wine.
Jennifer Tirey:Yeah. I'd I'd say one more, Todd, tradition. I think it becomes a tradition for our fairgoers to come and see us every year. I have had the privilege to be with the pork producers for ten years, and I love talking with fairgoers. We've got 80 year old couples that come in and stop at the pork patio.
Jennifer Tirey:We've you know, it just becomes such a thing that families come back every year, and that makes me proud to be able to work with them.
Todd Gleason:This morning, as you opened up at 10:30AM, one of the first people in line was the new chancellor of the University of Illinois, Charles Isbell. He got your pork chop on a stick, and I have to admit, he'll be back. If not this year, next year, and the year after, and he'll be in your line again.
Jennifer Tirey:I love to hear that. I had opportunity to meet your new chancellor over on the director's line this morning at Ag Day, and he is such a great advocate of pork. He told me one of his favorite foods is bacon, and by him coming over and being one of the first people on our line today, definitely shows me that he supports the pork industry and agriculture as a whole. And so I look forward to working with him in the future, and he can come back anytime he wants. We will always have a pork item for him to enjoy.
Todd Gleason:It says something about him on his eighth day as an employee at University of Illinois that he's here at the State Fairgrounds for Ag Day.
Jennifer Tirey:It a 100% does. And I know that with U of I being a land grant institution, that partnership that U of I has with all of our commodity partners is so important. But to see the chancellor be here in person and get a chance to talk to us and get a face with a name means so much going forward. And like you said, on your eighth day, that's that's amazing.
Todd Gleason:Who works the commodity pavilion?
Jennifer Tirey:The commodity pavilion is made up of about 300 volunteers that we utilize throughout the ten day fair. Our biggest volunteers are our pork producers. It is a very grassroots organization, and our pork producers are the ones working the cashier booth, helping ravers. They're our cooks from Peoria, Illinois. It's all Illinois product that we're serving, and so we are definitely a grassroots volunteer organization during the fair.
Todd Gleason:What would you say to those who are coming to the fair that's never been here and come to the pavilion, which by the way is across from the grandstand?
Jennifer Tirey:Yeah. So if you've never been here, we really hope you come give us a try. We're right across from the grandstand. We have had so many people come in and compliment us on our product. We're proud to be able to serve it and it's a really cost effective.
Jennifer Tirey:A lot of times you can come to the fair and just drop so much money. We are so proud to be able to offer budget friendly for our families. So come on down and give us a try and support your Illinois pig farmers.
Todd Gleason:And these are one inch pork chops. These are not thin little pork Yeah.
Jennifer Tirey:It's definitely a very subsidence piece of meat. You're gonna enjoy the protein. You're gonna have a great experience, and you're gonna support our hog farmers along the way.
Todd Gleason:So the chancellor did have
Todd Gleason:a question. He wants to know what the secret seasoning is because it
Todd Gleason:was so good. Can you tell us?
Jennifer Tirey:Yes. So he had a chop on a stick, which we utilize Riley's all purpose seasoning. Riley's is actually headquartered in Pittsfield, Illinois, and we've worked with Riley's for years. And we are so proud to be able to continue to serve our chop on a stick with that seasoning. It's just a fan favorite.
Todd Gleason:Jennifer Tyree is the executive director of the Illinois Pork Producers Association. I caught up with her last Friday at the Illinois State Fair in Springfield. It runs through Sunday of this week. Do drop by the Commodities Pavilion. It is just across the street from the grandstand.
Todd Gleason:They have some fantastic meals for you and your family and the price is right. Now, Ms. Tyree mentioned the new chancellor of the University of Illinois. He too was there on Ag Day, and I had an opportunity to talk with Charles Isbell about his career and his plans at the University of Illinois. Asked him first to tell me about himself and his pathway to the U of I.
Charles Isbell:My background is in two things. It's in machine learning and AI. I'm a computationalist. And in education.
Todd Gleason:Why did you choose that path? What caused you to do that particular path?
Charles Isbell:Well, two things, and they come together. One, I was always interested in what it meant to build a smart thing. I wanted to create data from Star Trek. I wanted to create how from 2000 well, a nice how from 02/2001. I wanted to build something that was smart, that would learn, that would be a friend to me as I grew up when I was young.
Charles Isbell:I also knew from a very early age that I wanted to be an educator, that I wanted to teach. My teachers told me, you should go be a professor. So I said, sure. And I went off to be a professor.
Todd Gleason:What was your path like here to the University of Illinois as chancellor?
Charles Isbell:So I spent a much of my time even as I was doing research and as I was teaching, thinking about higher education, particularly public higher education, flagships, big impact on the state. And so very early in my career, started doing administration. I was an associate dean and a dean and then eventually a provost. I'm in Wisconsin before I came here to be chancellor. And at the end of the day, I believe fundamentally that the mission of a large even elite research, public university is to serve the state and to
Todd Gleason:serve the people. Why the University of Illinois? What what caused you to come here to consider this as a place for the next step in your career? Well, the
Charles Isbell:University of Illinois is a special place. In my view, it's one of only a handful of places in the country that are large, that has an ag school, that has extension, public cares about research as well as education and bringing all those things together. We're at a point in time when higher education is fundamentally under attack. People are asking questions about its value and what it can do for them and what it can really mean. There's only a small number of places that can answer that question and take seriously the idea that you need to answer that question, and Illinois is one of those places.
Charles Isbell:So I was very happy to be invited to interview here and absolutely over the moon to be asked be the next chancellor.
Todd Gleason:Land grants were founded as ag and mechanics, agriculture and engineering, computer science part of that. How do you see the two missions of the campus in that form working together for agriculture? And then, of course, extension, and a land grant is, teaching research and outreach as well.
Charles Isbell:Well, I think what's really interesting about this place, what's interesting about Illinois is that it is better than most, when it comes to interdisciplinary research, bringing together ACEs with, computer science, with engineering, with, a variety of disciplines that are out there. But I think importantly, it's not just the research that it's very good at. It's very good at the educations. So Illinois was a pioneer for CS plus X. So some of the biggest programs in ACES are CS plus agriculture and bringing those people together so they can do interesting things.
Charles Isbell:That's an educational mission, not just a research mission. When you combine that with something like extension, what you have is a direct connection to the people across the state, to every county, to every place that you can be. And that is itself not just a way of translating work that's out there, it's a way of listening to what people need and it's a way of doing two way communication and education.
Todd Gleason:And finally, I want to wrap up with something that you and I had talked about as it's related to agriculture and the farm community. Much has been computerized over the years. Machine learning is in place, sometimes referred to as AI. This is in your wheelhouse. You're in a different area.
Todd Gleason:Tell me how you see what you have been in and how this how you see the two of those interconnecting in your own mind.
Charles Isbell:So I've spent most of my career doing AI and machine learning and specifically modeling humans. Human behavior, predicting what they do, but also intervene, understanding how to help people to accomplish the goals that they want to accomplish. That seems very far removed from getting better yield on corn or making certain that animals and livestock are able to do the things that they they need to do. But they're actually strongly related. It's about modeling what people do, what plants do, and what everything happens over time.
Charles Isbell:And so from my point of view, this is all it's all the same thing. I plan on not just doing the chancellor thing, but also working with people, working with students, working with postdocs, working with faculty, to understand what we can do that's kind of interesting and new in this space. Thank you for taking the time with me today. Thank you for having me. I appreciate it.
Todd Gleason:Charles Isbell is the new chancellor at the University of Illinois. I spoke with him last Friday at the Illinois State Fairgrounds in Springfield. It was his eighth day in office. You're listening to the closing market report from Illinois public media. It is public radio for the farming world online at willag.org, willag.0r,gene.
Todd Gleason:Where right now, you can find this morning's USDA crop Let's check-in on the weather forecast now. Don Day at Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming left an update. He starts with August weather.
Don Day:Routine mid August weather is the best way to describe what's coming in the next week or so. We're gonna continue with warm August temperatures, although we don't expect anything crazy with the heat. Temperatures across most of the Lower 48, including the Corn Belt Midwest. We'll go back to some warmer than average conditions with the real hot weather. A little bit further west out into the plains of Nebraska, Kansas, up into the Dakotas, and into the Southern Plains of Oklahoma and Northern Texas.
Don Day:Near to above average temperatures will be found elsewhere. Precipitation wise, we will see a little bit of an eastward and northern shift of the heavier precipitation. We're looking at the central, northern, and eastern areas of the core belt getting into the better chances of rain. Rainfall amounts aren't going to be excessive. Looks like rainfall totals of anywhere from three quarters to an inch and a half to two inches across portions of Illinois, Indiana, into Ohio.
Don Day:The heavier rains will be more focused towards the Wisconsin, Minnesota, and the Eastern Dakotas with drier conditions out in the Western Plains areas. We're also watching tropical activity. We've got tropical storm Aaron, which is possibly gonna become a hurricane out in the Atlantic here in the days ahead. Whether or not that reaches the East Coast, we'll have to see, but there's other activity behind it that could affect the Southeast and the Mid Atlantic over the next ten to fourteen days.
Todd Gleason:That's Don Dehees with Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Joined us on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. You may find those USDA reports online on our website right now, in fact, under the USDA tab if you'd like. Willag.org, willag.0rg. You have a great afternoon.
Todd Gleason:I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. Doctor. JACKSON:
