Aug 11 | Closing Market Report
From the land grant university in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It is the August 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Kurt Kimmel. He's at agmarket.net in Normal, Illinois.
Todd Gleason:We'll hear from Freyne Olsen, agricultural economist at North Dakota State University with Extensionaire. I talked with him earlier today about last night's about last night's social media post from president Trump as it's related to China and soybeans and the ag trade agreements as well. And then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast with Mark Russo. He's at Everstream Analytics all on this Monday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. Biz Public Radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.0rg.
announcer:Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason:September corn for the day at $3.85 finished two and a quarter higher. December at $4.00 7 and 3 quarters. The settlement price also up two and a quarter. And the March two and a quarter higher. It settled at $4.52 and a quarter.
Todd Gleason:September beans up 24¢ at $9.91 and 3 quarters. November at $10.11 at a quarter, 23 and three quarters higher. In January at 23¢ at $10.29 and a half. Bean meal, $4.20 higher. The bean oil up 48¢.
Todd Gleason:Weed futures, a half cent higher at $5.15 in the September. December up a half at $5.35 and a half. And for the soft red, the hard red December at $5.37 and a half, a quarter of a cent higher. Live cattle futures at $2.26 10, 12 and a half cents higher. Feeder cattle up 22 and a half cents at $340.60 per 100 pounds, and lean hogs at $91.77 and a half cents, a dollar and 10¢ higher.
Todd Gleason:Crude oil, $64.07 a barrel, about 19¢ higher. The wholesale price of gasoline on the RBOB today at $2.07 and 7 tenths. That's just about 8 tenths, rather 8 hundreds lower. So just about unchanged and diesel fuel at $2.29 and 3 tenths, a penny and 3 tenths of a cent higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average now stands 200 points lower, and the S and P 500 is down about seven and three quarters of a point.
Todd Gleason:Now here to talk about these numbers is Kurt Kimmel. He is with agmarket.net in Normal, Illinois. Hi, Kurt. Thanks for being with us again.
Curt Kimmel:Glad to be here again, Todd. Thank you much.
Todd Gleason:And tell me why it was and I think it's pretty clear, but why it was that soybeans managed to jump in the overnight and day trade?
Curt Kimmel:Yeah. Basically, we're subject to overnight news or, you know, post on social media. President Trump came out and stated that China needs soybeans and hopes China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders and it's hard to quadru- as one person said earlier this morning, it's hard to quadruple when the number is zero here at the moment on new crop beans so it's- whoever came up with that was quick thinking this morning. But also too that type of request is just physically impossible to achieve but the AI programs, computers gave that reason to go with it for right now and it's made some optimism something could happen here. So we'll see what type of news we run into as we move forward.
Curt Kimmel:Now that pushed the beans up to some downtrend lines that the market's been running into ever since we made the high back there, this last high back in mid June there, so November beans back to that downtrend line is going to run into some resistance. When close above that reach downtrend line, maybe we can get something going. We did close above the ten and twenty day moving average, maybe we can have a little short covering, but for the most part, the market's kind of waiting to see what the report shows, tomorrow 11AM time.
Todd Gleason:And the crop production and the WASDE figures are both due out tomorrow. It'll be interesting to see what the World Agricultural Outlook Board does with the soybean and corn s and d tables, as it's related to exports. And then also what crop production numbers come out of USDA NASS. They do survey farmers for this one and do a lot of satellite surveying as well. What do you and the rest of the trade thinking?
Curt Kimmel:Well, on the production that's probably going to get the spotlight here. The ag market team's got the corn yield 184.8. I believe the average gas is 184.3 so we're just a little above average gas that's up about three and a half bushel from last month. On the soybean yield average trade gas is 53 bushels, we're staying unchanged at 52.5, just going with the idea that beans still have some time here to develop for the most part. One thing that analysts just are not touching and it's the huge unknown is the demand side of the equation, exports, on particularly even beans.
Curt Kimmel:So that's going be let known. They're not going to, I don't believe they're going to touch that one until we get more into the marketing season and kind of see how the sales go for the most part. But on the demand side, the old crop still is a big deal. We shipped out on the shipments almost 1,500,000 metric tons of corn, 581,000 beans, wheat was a little up to low end at three sixty five, but we continue to sell and ship out and the key here in the next couple of reports on shipments is as we wrap up the market year to meet the USDA outlook on exports. So that that'll kind of wrap up the old crop, but most of the focus is going to be on the new crop.
Curt Kimmel:We went through the period of worrying about corn on fungicide, and now we're going to be worried about what crop reports show here as we move forward. But we can worry about this, we can worry about that, but what the trump card, what we're busy doing is vision with producers on what to do with the new crop that's going to be harvested fairly shortly here in the Midwest just due to the fact that a lot of us have been drinking the drought Kool Aid earlier hoping that we'd see a rally, did not happen, so there's gonna be a lot of grain for sale here this new year.
Todd Gleason:Yeah, so what do you tell producers and you'll need to make it short for me.
Curt Kimmel:We basically own the corn, four fifteen, make a cash sale before basis gets wide, then we replace, you some call strategies so we can try to recoup a little bit to the upside in through here. It varies from individual to individual. Those bushels need to probably be looked at for off farm storage. On farm storage, look for the carry opportunity there, Todd.
Todd Gleason:Alright. Hey. Thank you much. I appreciate it. You bet.
Todd Gleason:Take care. You too. Kurt Kimmel is with agmarket.net, joined us on this Monday edition of the closing market report. You can always check it out again online and listen to the whole thing at willag.0rg anytime you'd like on demand. Just a quick reminder that the Illinois State Fair is underway in Springfield.
Todd Gleason:It runs through Sunday. If you have the opportunity, visit the fairgrounds there on Sangamon Avenue all this week. It's a really fun thing to go do. The sale of Champions starts at 04:30 on Wednesday afternoon in the Colosseum. The other item I'd like you to consider is visiting our website at willag.org where you'll find information about the MRTN returns.
Todd Gleason:There was a webinar last week with Gary Schnitke and Laura Gentry also from the Illinois Corn Growers Association and the OFI talking about what they've found across hundreds of thousands of acres in the Midwest particularly in Illinois and what nitrogen rates and timings work best. Have you considered changing your timings and or more importantly how much nitrogen you apply? You might take some time to watch the webinar. That's at wilag.org We're now joined by Frane Olsen, agricultural economist from North Dakota State University with extension there. Frane, thanks much for being with us.
Todd Gleason:I bet you're looking forward to having students back on campus by the end of the month.
Frayne Olson:Absolutely. Absolutely. No. I mean, I don't teach any class in the spring semester, but, it's really good to have all the students back on campus and have have a lot more It's pretty quiet during the summer.
Todd Gleason:Indeed. However, it was not quiet in the marketplace last night as president Trump, through his truth social account, called on China to quadruple its import of US soybeans that would take everything they import for a year, and move it all to The United States seems really unlikely to happen. However, it does bring me to the question of how you've been watching the trade agreements that he has been working through, particularly with China, and what those might mean over the long and short terms?
Frayne Olson:Yeah, and that's a really great question and it's something that during the summer meetings that I've had that we spent some time talking about. Really, the grain markets have been watching the trade and trade negotiations very closely. Don't misunderstand that it doesn't seem like to a lot of observers that the grain markets are really paying much attention. They are, it's just kind of in the background. There's a couple of reasons for that.
Frayne Olson:First, most of the big issues and questions that are being raised in the trade agreements or these frameworks are not directly related to ag. They are worried about some of the other products and in particular the level of trade between US versus these other countries. So we're looking at the trade deficit and what are we buying from them versus what are they buying from us. Okay, so a lot of the discussions also have been in providing what they call frameworks for trade agreements. So the negotiations when President Trump says we have a deal with, let's say the EU, the European Union or The UK, the British, those are really frameworks, meaning that they have agreed on the structure of the agreement, higher level priorities are going to be and in particular some of those areas that are of greatest dispute or greatest kind of disagreements on.
Frayne Olson:But we still have to put that into writing. And so there is still a lot of work ahead of us to be able to get the details, to put all of those specifics into an agreement that both parties can sign, that we can actually use as the formal agreement. The other thing then is that we have been talking about what The U. S. Is going to put tariffs on for products coming into The U.
Frayne Olson:S, not necessarily what those countries are doing for retaliation. And with the exception of a few examples, most of the countries that we are negotiating with have not retaliated, meaning that they have not put other tariffs on US products. And that includes ag products which is really good. However, one of my big concerns moving forward is, okay, it's going to take us a while to get these frameworks into real trade agreements so we all understand the nuts and bolts of how this is going to work, the details of how we're going to implement this. If we have the large crop production that we do in The United States based off of the industry estimates for the forecast for the WASDE report coming out tomorrow, on the heels of a very large Brazilian crop, large soybean, large corn production, a lot of competition in the global marketplace, It looks as though our ending stocks, our inventories are going to start to build.
Frayne Olson:And so the question I get all the time is, Well, if we have these low prices because we have this big production and the big inventory, how long will these low prices last? I get the question from ag lenders, I get the question from farm managers saying, Well, how do we put a plan together, a marketing plan together in this environment? And the short answer really is the length of time really depends upon how quickly we can export our way out of these extra stocks. If we have to rely on domestic consumption only, if we have big reserves and we're going have to chew our way through this through domestic consumption, we can do that, but it's going to take some time. The only market that I know of that's big enough and deep enough and large enough to be able to chew up large volumes of U.
Frayne Olson:S. Grain quickly to be able to get more of a price recovery faster is to export the products. Okay, so the follow-up question then is, who is going to buy those products? Which country is going to step up and say, Oh, this is a great deal. I am going to buy more U.
Frayne Olson:S. Ag products. And I think there is interest in doing that. The concern I have or the question that is being asked is, well, if we buy from The U. S, by the time it arrives, we going to have additional problems?
Frayne Olson:Usually international buyers are thinking anywhere from three to six months forward in their purchases, so they are buying today for delivery sometime in the future, which is very common because of the time lags and the delays. Well, as an international buyer, what is the risk of buying from The United States with potential shifting in trade policy, not only but more importantly for the country that I have, the country that I am operating in, versus trading with someone, a company, or buying my product from another country. So there is, in my sense, I guess what I am sensing in the marketplace now, in particular internationally, is that there is a risk premium or it's sometimes a risk discount, if you will, on U. S. Egg products.
Frayne Olson:Because of this unknown, this uncertainty about are we going to be able to I mean, there going to be additional trade disputes coming up between the time I buy migraine from The U. S. And it's actually delivered to me in my home country? So there are some short term issues that I think we still have to work through. Am a little concerned about that.
Frayne Olson:We will have to watch to see how this plays out. Then the follow on is, well, long term is going to be some long term damage to demand. Is The U. S. Going to be considered not the first choice or the first call that I make, but might be the second or third or fourth call that I make?
Frayne Olson:And we won't know that obviously. That's something we're going to have to wait over time. How these trade agreements are finalized and what the fine print actually looks like and how these other countries are going to either retaliate or not retaliate. How are they going to respond to this new trade environment? Those are still really, really big questions well above my pay grade.
Todd Gleason:So it is about the reliability of The United States as a trade partner?
Frayne Olson:It really is. And again, if you're, if you think about it as a buyer, you know, again, yes, it's price, it's quality, it's, is the product going to be delivered to me on time? Am I going to get what I ordered? But then the other part of that is, well, this uncertainty, this unknown about, well, will there be some new trade dispute that shows up in two or three weeks that I don't anticipate? And that could be either from The United States in The U.
Frayne Olson:S. Position or could potentially be for the political position within my home country. Again, just because things have stabilized, it looks like it's starting to become more calm, doesn't mean there can't be hiccups or problems later on. So I do think this higher level of anxiety about, well, what will this chair structure really look like, is is playing a role. I think there are countries that are that are a bit more cautious in trying to buy, in particular, large volumes of grain from The US.
Todd Gleason:Is there any indication that countries are concerned that the trade agreements being penned by the Trump administration need to be approved by Congress?
Frayne Olson:So there's another layer of uncertainty, right? I mean, there's another layer of complexity to this. And I guess there's still, even in today, within the legal system, people are still challenging to say, Well, does President Trump have the authority to be able to implement or even to authorize the tariffs that are currently in place. Because as President Trump has said, there's going to be a 10% import tariff on all products. From there we go country by country by country and say, well, some countries are going to be higher than that and other countries will be at that base of 10.
Frayne Olson:Does he have the authority to even do that to begin with? That is obviously a legal debate, again, well above and beyond my knowledge base, but it is something that is a concern. So, the provisions that allow the President power to unilaterally put on tariffs, Is that extended? Does the existing laws, does he qualify to be able to use this in this way? And again, those are legal discussions well beyond what I know.
Todd Gleason:Thank you much. I appreciate it, Frank.
Frayne Olson:Yeah. It's always good to visit. I know this is this is a lot of moving parts. It gets to be very complex, but, you know, we still have to try and understand it and make decisions.
Todd Gleason:Frank Olson is an agricultural economist with North Dakota State University Extension and located on campus in Fargo. Let's check out the global growing regions now with Mark Russo. He's at Everstream Analytics. Hi, Mark. Thanks for being with us again on a Monday.
Mark Russo:Hello, Todd. Thanks for having me.
Todd Gleason:Can you take a look back at last week? There were some strong winds. I don't think quite a derecho, but strong winds in the Northwestern Part of the Corn Belt. Did it do very much damage?
Mark Russo:Yeah. We didn't think there was, too much impact here, at least anything that wide spread. Some localized severe wind gusts above like 70 or even 80 miles per hour, but again, very localized. That normally happens almost every season. The biggest concern would be if you have a large scale derecho where you have a large area of those severe wind gusts.
Mark Russo:And of course, the classic example is back five years ago. And since then, there hasn't been anything since that, not even close.
Todd Gleason:Yeah. If I remember correctly, the length on that one was as much of a problem as anything, 40 or 50 miles wide and eight hours, a 100 mile an hour winds. Yeah. Exactly. Can you turn your attention now to next week and what the weather might be like?
Mark Russo:Yeah. We continue to see favorable weather here across much of the Midwest, not only this week, but over the next few weeks. The Eastern Midwest will have near to below normal rainfall, while the Western Belt has near to above normal rainfall. And from a temperature standpoint, readings are still going to be warmer than normal, especially over the next ten days before there's a a cool down back to more seasonal levels. But even with the current warmth, we don't expect that to lead to any kind of crop stress, with crop going through, corn crop going through kernel filling stage and beans going through pod development.
Mark Russo:That should continue to be favorable because the heat is just not extreme.
Todd Gleason:Are there places across North America you're keeping an eye on?
Mark Russo:Well, across the Northern Plains and even up into Canada, they're in a pretty wet pattern, which for the timing now of these rains, starting to become more problematic than beneficial as crops are maturing, and harvest is beginning to accelerate for like spring wheat in Canola. So that's an area to keep an eye on. And then we also are keeping an eye on the tropics, which as always this time of year, that can become a wild card in the pattern. And at least over the next week to ten days, we don't see any tropical impacts on The US. We do have a newly developed tropical storm Aaron, which likely is going to recurve and stay off the East Coast, but it is something to monitor as is, know, again, always watching the tropics at this time of year.
Todd Gleason:Now turn your attention to Europe and the Northern Hemisphere crops there.
Mark Russo:Yeah. Across Europe, we're seeing another major heat wave build into Europe, which is gonna continue for the next week to ten days, and then also suppressed rainfall pattern returning to much of Europe. And this is a pattern seen very similar as back in June. And so after the relief of July from a rainfall temperature standpoint, Europe is going right back into the hot dry mode, which is stressing late developing summer crops. And certainly, they they avoided a crop disaster this year because of July's weather, but still lower production here due to what's been a roller coaster ride of of weather this season.
Todd Gleason:Thank you much, Mark. You're welcome, Todd. Mark Russo is with Averi Dream Analytics joined us on this Monday edition of the closing market report that came to Room Illinois public medium. It is public radio for the farming world online at willag.0rg. I'm Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.
