Aug 04 | Closing Market Report
From the land to Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It is the August 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Kurt Kimmel. He's at agmarket.net.
Todd Gleason:University of Minnesota Extension agricultural economist Ed Asit will be here. He has some thoughts on new crop corn sales, both in storage and across the scale. Then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast. We'll talk with Mark Russo. He's at Everstream Analytics on this Monday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media.
Todd Gleason:It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org.
announce:Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension.
Todd Gleason:September corn for the day at $3.87, down 2 and a half cents. December on its settlement price, 3 and 3 quarters of a cent lower at $4.07. The March at $4.24 and 3 quarters down 3 and a half. November beans at $9.94 and a half up 5 and a quarter. The January October higher.
Todd Gleason:Bean meal up $6.10 at $277, and the bean oil for the day down 8¢ at $54.40. Wheat futures, soft red December at $5.37 and a half, a penny lower, and the hard red for the day down one at $5.37 and a half. Live cattle futures up 42 and a half cents. Feeders, 52 and a half cents higher, and lean hogs, 85¢ higher for a 100 pounds. Kurt Kimmelen now joins us to take a look at the marketplace.
Todd Gleason:Hi, Kurt. Thanks for being with us, from agmarket.net.
Curt Kimmel:Glad to be here, Todd. Thank you.
Todd Gleason:Well, let's start with the corn. What'd you make of the market for the day?
Curt Kimmel:Well, new lows. Trades seems to be getting fairly comfortable crop prospects. Most analysts are looking at up in the yield somewhat. Stonex, our assuming he's supposed to be out this afternoon with his, projection estimates. We'll see what that comes in at, but, there's expectations that some of the analysts are anywhere from 184 to 187 on corn yield, upwards of maybe 53 bushels on 54 bushels on beans.
Curt Kimmel:SAFN crop conditions report expect to be unchanged, 73% good to excellent. That's what it was last week. Last year we were at 67, ranging anywhere from 71 to 74. Beans unchanged at 70% good to excellent. Last year they were 68% good to excellent.
Curt Kimmel:So conditions are better than last year, so it's giving the trade a little confidence here on ideas that, we've got the potential with decent crops. Seasonally these conditions reports start to roll over from the standpoint, the crops started to mature and so forth. So, we'll see what that, has to say, but for the most part, you mentioned corn, new new lows, nothing really positive there. A lot of analysts are looking for this corn to maybe drift on down below, $4 The main thing on the corn, basis, most are in agreement that with the larger production estimate here as a nation, we'll see maybe some storage issues. And the main thing on storage and trend is there's not a whole bunch been sold priced ahead of time.
Curt Kimmel:And so we're gonna run-in a situation where, you know, there's gonna be need to find some storage somewhere to, if you're gonna hang on to it. Not a bagger to be had anywhere. A lot of producers have gotten the bagging route here. So, you'll see a lot of white silos, here, amongst the fields here as everyone kind of scrambles to find a home. Now we haven't started harvest up in the Upper Midwest here, still ways away, but we think you probably derail those expectations.
Curt Kimmel:We'll probably be a Labor Day freeze, Todd.
Todd Gleason:Okay, so we have this new contract low in the December corn. It is only by three quarters of a cent. I guess that's good news. What are the expectations going into the overnight trade and day trade tomorrow? Are there ideas that this will continue to trend lower even this week going into next week crop next week's, crop progress and, production reports?
Curt Kimmel:We can have a turnaround Tuesday or a so called low recovery, short covering balance, but upside's probably going to run industry resistance to the ten and twenty day moving averages, as resistance levels just above the market. Seasonally, we look for some seasonal lows here in the month of August in the first September. So there's just really nothing out there that says step up by tariff uncertainties, you know, still remain out there. We'll see how that news unfolds. There's really no new export news on the daily scale, any large sales so far this week.
Curt Kimmel:Last week, you know, we saw some decent sales announced. Shipments are good, particularly on corn. So, you know, as we wrap up this old crop here by the end of the month here, as the new marketing year starts September 1, think, you know, we're going to meet those export expectations. Now it's a matter of new crop, the uncertainty on new crop that kinda is in the back of everybody's mind.
Todd Gleason:So new contract lows in corn, however soybeans managed to gain for the day. Why was that the case?
Curt Kimmel:Well, it's kind of herky jerky for the most part. Bean oil was on the defensive, Malaysia palm oil stocks for the month of July was at 19 high, so ample, palm oil stocks for a moment in through here. Then that was a little low overnight, then two we saw OPEC talk about increased production over 500,000 barrels for, the month of, September. So, we're in a situation where that was able to be reversed in through here. The trade was wanting to spread the market actually, buy beans, sell corn, buy beans and sell some other commodities on, spread activity.
Curt Kimmel:Not heavy volume, for the most part, but the trade was more worried about the corn versus beans here just through today.
Todd Gleason:Anything else before I let you go for the day?
Curt Kimmel:Well, we'll see how the market unfolds in through here. You know, guys are frustrated from the standpoint, had maybe spray a second time for fungicide. Then two, we're hearing just a lot of labor issues finding some truck drivers this fall, so anybody listening that wants a little job here this fall, I'm sure some producer will be more than willing to show you how to drive a truck real quick.
Todd Gleason:Indeed. Hey. Thank you much, Kurt. I appreciate it. That's Kurt Kimmel.
Todd Gleason:He is with agmarket.net. You're listening to the closing market report from Illinois Public Media on this Monday afternoon. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand anytime you'd like to hear us at willag.org or search it out by name in your favorite podcast applications. Now if you visit our website willag.org today you'll find a link to register for tomorrow's eleven a. M.
Todd Gleason:Central time PharmDoc webinar this one on PCM Precision Conservation Management. Actually, it's on the ten years worth of data collected from hundreds of thousands of acres related to nitrogen application rates and timing. You won't want to miss it. Register today. Last Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced that he is reimposing reciprocal tariffs on products from dozens of foreign countries entering The US market.
Todd Gleason:That was just another move infuriating Canadian leaders. Dennis Guy has more. He's a colleague of mine at the National Association of Farm Broadcasting.
Dennis Guy:On Thursday evening, US president Trump announced that he is reimposing reciprocal tariffs on products from dozens of foreign countries entering The US market. Trump also announced that he is increasing tariffs on certain Canadian goods from 25% to 35% while once again accusing Canada of failing to cooperate in curbing a flood of fentanyl into The US. Ottawa has repeatedly proven that only very tiny amounts of fentanyl entering The United States originate from Canada, while at the same time, a number of measures to strengthen the border have been taken with those measures confirmed by US border officials. Stuart True with the Canadian Center for Alternative Policies is a Canadian trade adviser. True says that Canadian negotiators have been increasingly frustrated with Washington discussions and Trump's continued blame game of Canadian origin fentanyl just adds to those frustrations.
Stuart Trew:It's economic coercion of the worst kind. That's what's happening here. They're making things up. We know that there's no real major border issue. Canada still doesn't have a very good idea of what the Trump administration wants.
Todd Gleason:This is a nonissue. This is coercion. We simply don't know what they want.
Dennis Guy:Earlier this week, former Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper spoke to the Midwestern legislative conference held in Saskatoon this year. Along with four provinces, 11 US states were represented there. Harper, speaking directly to the American representatives, said that Canada must diversify much of its trade away from The US as Canada cannot continue to have its economy and its sovereignty threatened by the current Washington administration.
Stephen Harper:Canada must be seized with the necessity of making sure that we do not export only to you. This really is a wake up call for this country to truly diversify its export markets. We just cannot be in a position in the future where we can be threatened. That's really critical for us going forward.
Dennis Guy:And just the day before president Trump's latest tariff announcement, he put up a post on his truth social platform that infuriated Canadian officials. Trump posted that Canada's backing of statehood for Palestine would make it very difficult for The US to make a trade deal with Canada. Tom Mulcair, former federal New Democrat party leader stated that with that statement, once again, Donald Trump has made a direct attack on Canada's sovereignty.
Tom Mulcair:This is an attempt to use a trade negotiation as a way to control Canada's independent foreign policy. Recognition of a Palestinian state has been part of Canadian foreign policy for decades. Trump thinks that he can use these trade negotiations as a hammer to break Canada's will on this. Quite the contrary.
Dennis Guy:Reporting from Canada, I'm Dennis Guy.
Todd Gleason:We're now joined by Ed Assad, agricultural economist at University of Minnesota and with Extension. Thank you, Ed, for taking some time with me. We have tariffs to talk about. We have a really big corn crop to talk about soybeans that probably will be made in the month of August. It appears that way at least to this point.
Todd Gleason:What's top of your mind for this crop year at this time?
Ed Usset:Well, it's a it's a hard one to watch as we continue to drift lower. I, like, many of your listeners, Todd, were I've been waiting for that, spring summer rally, something where I could get something done. And, it pains me to realize that February was the high, for this year for corn, soybeans, and wheat. We had a rally in February, and I recall telling my colleagues at the University of Minnesota who have a little bit of grain to sell from the, research plots and things like that. And and I'm like, you know, you don't you don't sell in February.
Ed Usset:We don't get highs in February. We'll do better. That was it. That
Todd Gleason:was it. That was it. I'm in the same boat.
Ed Usset:I just,
Curt Kimmel:can't believe it.
Todd Gleason:Except I did make a sale in January. Close to the highs, but February, I ignored.
Ed Usset:Yeah. Yeah.
Todd Gleason:So we're all in the same boat on this for new crop corn. And even if futures don't drop, I feel like basis at harvest has got to widen out. I don't know whether it will. It's been it's been fairly wide anyway, but man, what do producers do?
Ed Usset:Well, we have to start thinking about, selling the carry at harvest. We've got big carries in the corn market, big carries in the wheat market, and even big carries showing up in the soybean market. Do you know the the carry from November to July, the November contract? Good grief. Where is it?
Ed Usset:About nine ninety somewhere in there, today. $9.90 a bushel from November. It's 60 plus cents higher out to the July, $10.50. That'll cover your interest costs easily and, throw something else in there. It's not the most exciting trade in the world, Todd.
Ed Usset:I mean, it just know, if you if you sell the carry with a hedge to arrive in the July contract or you call your broker and you sell the July, If the big rally of 2026 begins, you you've sort of made your pet. On the other hand, maybe the big rally doesn't come, and maybe that's the best you can do. If we can get from 65 on, I'm talking Minnesota numbers now. We're trading 65 under the November contract at harvest right now. Not a real thrilling basis.
Ed Usset:I've seen worse, but I've seen better too. I think it'd be reasonable to expect that to be, 30 under the July by spring. So selling the carry could turn and I'm talking Minnesota numbers now. I apologize for that. I think most of your listeners have to add 20¢.
Ed Usset:But, we're looking at 9 and a quarter cash soybeans in Southwestern Minnesota. Selling the carry with a better basis, you could get almost a dollar higher by next spring.
Todd Gleason:Okay. So producers may do that. Mhmm. That would be for home storage, I'm sure. Mhmm.
Todd Gleason:What do they do about the scale?
Ed Usset:Well, you're gonna bite the bullet and do it. I'm really you know what? We're gonna if you hear talk about deferred price contracts, I'm sure coming up pretty soon. Elevators offering you that chance. And sometimes it works.
Ed Usset:I I kinda look at the deferred price contract that, is sort of the Hail Mary pass of, grain marketing. You know, it can it can have its moments, but too often, we're disappointed by it.
Todd Gleason:Do you think, and this is reaching, that Mexico holding off with president Trump on their tariffs and trade agreement will offer an opportunity for them to continue to buy corn going into harvest as they have had dry weather, throughout their season?
Ed Usset:I would think so. Mexico buys just a tremendous amount of corn from us. I've I've told you this, that our our sales to Mexico in the last year are the equivalent of seven shuttle trains. Seven one hundred car shuttle trains crossing that border every day, three hundred and sixty five days a year. That's how much corn Mexico has bought from us in the last year.
Ed Usset:I hope tariffs don't get in the way of that. I really hope not. That that's a huge market for us.
Todd Gleason:Well, here here's what I'm thinking on the fact that you and I don't have corn sold. I'm wondering whether we can find it can or have already found a corn bottom going into into harvest and through parts of October and whether if basis doesn't really widen out, you might get a better price
Ed Usset:Mhmm.
Todd Gleason:To go across the scale.
Ed Usset:I'm kinda with you there. It is not uncommon in bearish years that we bottom early. And, you know, a September low, an August, September low, not out of the question, that has crossed my mind. I hate getting people's hopes up too much, but that's Come on. That's all I have.
Ed Usset:That happens. You know, that happens.
Todd Gleason:I know. Alright. Well, we'll see how that all goes. Anything else before I let you go?
Ed Usset:Well, I'm just wondering if my own home state of Minnesota can top 200 bushels an acre for an average yield. Your state, Illinois, has done that, you know, ten years ago, top that. That that that's a big number for a state average. Iowa has already done it several times, and they'll do it again this year as will Illinois. Minnesota's never done it.
Ed Usset:We've we've been one ninety five for a statewide, average yield, and I just wonder what conditions as good as they are if we don't have a shot at 200 plus.
Todd Gleason:And we will find out more about that next week when the crop production report comes out from the United States Department of Agriculture. Thank you so very much. We appreciate it. Thank you. Mhmm.
Todd Gleason:That's it. That's it.
Todd Gleason:He is an agricultural economist at the University of Minnesota Extension. Let's check the weather forecast now with Mark Russo. He's at Everstream Analytics. Hi, Mark. Thanks for being with us.
Mark Russo:Hello, Todd. Thanks for having me.
Todd Gleason:It was a great weekend. Weather's been really good. What can we see across the Midwest for the coming week?
Mark Russo:Well, this, favorable weather here, looks to continue throughout the week. Rainfall, will now be in, will now be below normal as we saw over the weekend. Most of the rain suppressed into the Southern US. And so for this week, drier than normal conditions, and temperatures will remain cooler than normal throughout the middle to latter portion of this week. It's then next week where temperatures then climb to warmer than normal levels, but it still looks to stay generally drier than normal across the bulk of the belt.
Todd Gleason:Do we lose humidity at some point, or does it stay with us?
Mark Russo:We are going to see humidity increase again this upcoming weekend and next week as temperatures begin warming up. But right now, it doesn't look like we return to, like, those dew points in the seventies, like what we saw back, you know, much of last week and and prior to that, which resulted in the, you know, very oppressive levels of atmospheric moisture.
Todd Gleason:August generally tends to be a dry month. Do you expect much in rainfall across the thirty days of the month?
Mark Russo:Well, it's looking like a generally drier bias, although overall, it doesn't look like we're getting into any kind of extremely dry pattern or anything that looks highly anomalous on the low rainfall side of things. But certainly the first three weeks of August are shaping up to be below normal to various extents across the Midwest, but kind of more so on like right around that 75, 80% of normal rainfall versus like less than 50% of normal rainfall.
Todd Gleason:Let's check-in on some other growing regions across the planet, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. What do you find for Europe?
Mark Russo:Yeah. For Europe, in recent weeks, there's been cooler temperatures and increase in rainfall, and that has either stabilized or improved crop conditions there, especially for corn and sunseed in most areas. One area that has missed out on those rains is Southeast Europe, The Balkans, where significant heat and dryness seem to have really taken its toll here the past month for summer crops in those areas. Looking ahead here, we are going to see much of Europe revert back to a drier and a warmer pattern, very similar to what took place back during during the month of June. So that'll be beneficial for winter crop harvesting here, but for summer crops, likely could again begin to lower yield potential from the current levels.
Todd Gleason:Does that spread all the way into the Black Sea area as well?
Mark Russo:It does, at least into Ukraine portion of things. In Russia, though, they will continue to be active and also will see cooler temperatures, especially in their northern part of the winter wheat belt. So some of the disruptions and issues that they're having there with harvesting their winter crop and some quality issues, it does look like that's gonna continue here as we go through the next few weeks.
Todd Gleason:Thank you very much, Mark.
Mark Russo:You're welcome, Todd.
Todd Gleason:Mark Russo is with Everstream Analytics joined us on this Monday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It's public radio for the farming world online on demand at willag.org where you'll find right now a link to register for tomorrow's PCM precision conservation management webinar from the FarmDoc team with Laura Gentry at the Illinois Corn Growers Association and Gary Schnitke discussing PCM data related to nitrogen rate applications and timing. You won't want to miss this. There are ten years of data there and it should be a really good webinar on how to optimize nitrogen rates for the 2026 corn crop. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.
